By:Tareq al-Abed. As-Safir (Lebanon).
The relationship between the Syrian opposition factions and Kurdish groups is still precarious, despite the efforts on both sides to bridge the gap that is widening by the day, to the extent that they started to hurl accusations of ethnic intolerance at one another. The tension is growing even greater amid a rift within the ranks of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) regarding the issue of the Kurds. Some FSA members see the Kurds as a major player in Syrian popular movements, while others perceive them as mortal enemies that collude with the regime. There is also a third group within the FSA that prefers to keep its distance from this issue.
Summary:
Tareq al-Abed examines tensions among the Kurds and the armed opposition, and the possibility of a widespread conflict in the near future.
In the last two cases, one must pay heed to the hidden engine of change behind these positions, which is Turkey. Turkey is mobilizing its forces on the border, while some Kurds accuse it of facilitating the transportation of the fighters to the areas they control.
On the other hand, although Kurds have confirmed many times that they could shift the Syrian balance of power, there is no actual action on the ground that proves this fact. Everyone here agrees on one issue: We will not take ourselves to perdition.
Kurds are with the regime
The summer cloud hanging over the relationship between the Syrian opposition and the Kurds has now moved over the armed wing of the opposition. This wing believes that the Kurdish groups, which one way or another control the northeast of the country, are working for the benefit of the Damascus regime. The FSA accuses these movements of forming their own militias, as they are determined to enter these areas stretching from Aleppo to Hasaka in the far east.
The FSA is mainly accusing the Kurdish Democratic Union party, which it perceives to be an extension of the PKK, which is pro-government. These accusations stem from the fact that the Kurdish Democratic Union controls most of the territories in these regions, in addition to other parties such as the Kurdish Democratic Party. Clashes are rife in the regions near Ras al-Ain and the Kurdish areas close to Aleppo. Parties of the Kurdish National Council have formed a military force to confront the hardline Islamic battalions, which insist on liberating the al-Jazira region of eastern Syria. It must be mentioned that the battalions accuse the PKK of sending its troops through the Turkish border to fight alongside the regime, or even of forming armed groups under the guise of popular committees. The rebels warn them against any act that may hurt the course of the revolution.
The Kurds denied this, and insist on maintaining their presence and role. They will not stand idly by while the military surge is preparing to impose control on these regions currently controlled by the FSA so that the regime will not target them.
It must be also be mentioned that there is a discrepancy between the insurgents regarding their position toward the Kurds. While some FSA leaders, especially junta chief Samir Sheikh and deputy commander Malek al-Kurdis, continue to insist that there is no disagreement with the Kurds, the al-Nusra Front and other extremist battalions are sending Kurds hostile messages by sending militants into Kurdish regions, fomenting ill feeling among the Kurdish public.
The Kurds: we are not suicidal
As a consequence of these accusations by the armed opposition, the Kurds have mobilized their political and military ranks in an effort to address the two-front attack from the FSA and Turkey. Kurdish activists in Aleppo, for example, believe that the PKK doesn’t exist in the region. Other activists confirm the absence of Abdullah Ocalan’s militants, despite admitting that they adopt many of Ocalan’s principles. However, these activists do not raise the PKK banner, particularly the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, which is a member of the National Coordinating Committee, one of the most prominent opposition groups in Syria.
In contrast, a number of Kurdish activists have attacked Turkey, which they consider to be “the head of the snake,” given its significant role in mobilizing its forces and facilitating the passage of extremist militants into their areas. They are acting as if the battle between the Kurds and the Islamists were led by Turkey, or for the sake of the Turkish people. The Kurds believe that these people seek to please Turkey, which has facilitated the delivery of financial and military support to the battalions fighting in the north and has assumed a role in providing them with political support.
On the other hand, all Kurds assert that the calls for secession and the establishment of a Kurdish state contain a lot of exaggeration and propaganda. The priority is to recognize Kurdish rights, language, culture and nationality, without necessarily leading to a detachment from the homeland.
Some of them are resentful of what they see as a double standard. While the Kurds are violently attacked for raising the Kurdish flag or minimizing the presence of the Syrian revolution’s flag, the calls for creating an Islamic caliphate and raising the banners of al-Qaeda — without any presence of the Syrian revolution’s flag — are seen as justified.
Activists from Ras al-Ain confirm that none of the Kurdish people or parties — which lead the movement in the north and northeast — have a suicidal mentality. Secession is not an issue that can be resolved in an hour or two, they say. As long as the public considers itself an integral part of Syria, no one will pursue secession, regardless of what their neighbors in Iraq say. This shows that they are a part of the social fabric in the various Syrian regions, from Damascus to Rif-Dimashq, Aleppo, Hasaka and the northern part of al-Raqqah.
Despite all these positive talks on the part of the Kurds, tensions still exist between them and the armed opposition. This opens the door to a widespread conflict in the near future until a far-off settlement is reached.
I agree with you, Mr. Ross, regarding Max’s use of the term “the power elite.” Who are the “power elite”? Perhaps they walk among us…
Max Said:
Max Said:
HMMM? Sounds like a conspiracy to me, I thought you weren’t interested in conspiracies? Where’s your evidence where are the facts, trends, etc. that lead you to these conclusions? Sounds like the paranoia you loudly eschew, but without the plot!
Max Said:
Max Said:
Too many computer games,too many reruns of “Star Wars”? Come to the light, leave the dark side! LOL!
# 33 comment in moderation
Bernard Ross Said:
In regards to you, my point is you have have no point. The human condition is the struggle of freedom versus fascism, ther is nothing else, Since you have no conception of this you have no point in any political–military analysis.
All your various ‘fragmentings’ of experience are reflective of a shattered psyche and extremely tedious. To reply to them is performing confrontative psychotherapy and you really should pay me for that, it’s not worth it to me otherwise.
‘I have no care for what they are like’ Yep- there it is. Willfully blind.
Sorry not interested in propaganda wars in the ‘ghost world’ of the closed mind.
@ Michael Devolin:
More or less, It’s not so black and white as you say. I didn’t say we successfully installed a democratic model there, we instilled democratic ideas – planted seeds that upset the applecart – and hanging a strongman dictator was certainly inspiring to the masses all over the ME -it showed it could be done
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I wouldn’t have done what they did the way they did it, but in the aftermath but there has been a lot of positive use and overall the final word on it’s usefulness is not yet determined. It all depends on who wins the Global War for power.
The old ‘they are all animals’ thing…. I have a much more complicated viewpoint. It is what a person actually does that defines them. It could be a small thing but that small thing defines whether they embrace evil or embrace good and that thing is somewhat irrespective of ethnicity. Many Americans embrace evil in the form of fascism. The problem with the world’s peoples is the embrace of fascist ideologies not the peoples themselves. Ideologies are inculcated diseases.
On the other hand I am all for military ruthlessness – this is not the social attitude you expressed.
I’m reading “Son of Hamas’ – some of the attitudes expressed are so ugly I feel like throwing the book away but I insist to study it. I like to study personality development and what environmental factors we can change to alter such development.
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Iraq was certainly not a waste militarily. The more we are involved in military conflict, the stronger our military becomes. Iraq was a picnic compared to what is to come. The likelihood is that there will be successful WMD attacks on America and there will be intense retribution. We need to be ready. We must not leave any Islamic country until we have won the global struggle.
Overseas, our culture is destroying theirs. We have always done that, Vietnam China, the third world – our culture is freedom and democracy and it is corruptive.
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Now on the home front, you are right – their culture is exploiting ours. That is only because the power elite is allowing it in return for international profit. This is not natural to Western democratic culture. It is being artificially forced on us by the power elite who have control by meas of economic fascism. They are preventing us, the people, from expressing our outrage and protest and their invasion and repression of our freedom. This is unnatural and undemocratic.
The power elite has silenced free expression from our population created a phoney multiculturalism based on undemocratic repression.
This is not ‘their culture exploiting ours’ This is our power elite destroying our democracy and throwing us to the wolves for profit.
“…then we instilled democratic ideas in the populations there.”
We instilled nothing in the populations there. They took our money and remained the same animals as they were before we went in there. You can’t change shit into anything else but shit. Democracy will never work where it’s not wanted. We lost so many good soldiers over there, and for what? Nothing. There still a bunch of religiously inspired, anti-Jewish, blood-thirsty animals. They are no more salubrious than before the invasion.
“Looks like our culture is destroying theirs.”
Actually, their culture is exploiting ours. They’re laughing at us. And they’re still bad-mouthing the West and the State of Israel, maybe even more than before Western armies invaded. You can’t change the leopard’s spots.
Max Said:
apparently you believe this and expect that that the MB will be democratic and that they are inspired by America. I think you can only see the most superficial aspects of events which is probably why real time battles are exciting to you: you cant think further than the present or look back further and learn from history. The present is more comfortable; not much thought involved, just game playing.
Max Said:
LOL. what have you shared: that you predicted the fall of tripoli 3 hours before others; that your interest is pictures/military weapons/real time battle. It matters not to me because unlike you no one is waiting for my tactical battlefield advice before they enter their next battle. You talk about anylyzing and prediction but I have heard none of this from you, other than predicting the fall of tripoli 3 hours earlier.You were talking about Assad giving WMD to Hezbullah and sites like Debka had already been discussing this for days. I share my conclusions from my experience which is over 50 years of adult life watching similar situations unfold. How old are you, you speak as if such things never happened before. All this naive tyrant talk: were yous around when the Shah was forced out as being a despot only to be replaced by one of the worst plagues in the Mullahs. It is your prurient interest in battles, pictures real time action which simulates porn.Max Said:
I have no care for what they are like: the majority of syrians, lybyans, egyptians want rid of the jews and Israel and it matters not one fig who is the winner. I predict this from seeing many times arab govts change hands but the same anti israel stances. That is their man on the street and the more they fight eacch other the lass they can fight Israel. They are all tyrants so the longer the “arab spring” chaos continues the better. By the way I predicted long before Morsi takeover that the MB would ascend to power, and I have no twitter.Max Said:
blah blah blah: I have yet to read anyhting analytical or predictive, which has value beyond what time tripoli will fall. Other than your love affair with real time battles: what’s your point?
@ Bernard Ross:
Bernard Ross Said:
Not coincidence at all.
We did it.
First we destroyed the USSR and their influence in supporting these regimes, and then we invaded Iraq and hung Saddam.
Same thing in Afghanistan – then we instilled democratic ideas in the populations there.
WE showed hem that brutal and murderous dictators can be pulled of of spider holes and hung.
We showed them it can be done and inspired them.
Not bad, eh?
Yea Bush!
Looks like our culture is destroying theirs.
In moderation again…
comment 27
Bernard Ross Said:
It’s not name calling, it’s a realistic description. It means something is a legitimate conclusion from observable facts and critical analysis.
Everything you write there is the world of internet propaganda and ‘Terrorp0rn’ it’s all stuff in your head -you are sharing nothing of experience nor relating the experience of others. – nothing to show there you actually look and understand the real world experience of people – what are the daily lives of ordinary Syrians and Libyans now under warfare or previously under repression. The people are just objects in your arguments.
All these things including social media are a ghost world to you – you don’t use them to actually find out about the world , you use them to project your own ideas and feelings rather than research.
You have the wrong intent.
I am not interested in your conspiracy arguments they have no predictive or analytic use in the contemporary situation.
I think what your ideas and intent serves as some kind of catharsis for your various hatreds and frustrations which you need to work through. This is quite common for a lot of the people that talk as you do.
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There is nothing wrong with hatred, but we can’t let it rule our minds or actions so it’s best to let it burn out and let it go but still act realistically in accordance with understanding the evil we have hated.
Dr. X. my friend and teacher from Warsaw, now passed, one time told me he had enough poison in the one of the camps to kill a room full of Nazi Officers – and he could have done so, and he really wanted to.
Instead he let the impulse go and he realistically used the poison to do mercy killings for his fellow prisoners. And of course he survived.
You must pass beyond hatred and see the world cold to be effective in it.
‘Terrorp0rn seres the purpose of recycling emotions, paranoias and fantasies to relive the same emotions over and over again to give oneself some kind of meaning in life.
It’s an inner waste of energies – if the person gives these emotions up and becomes cold or maybe more accurately – ‘coldly burning’ , they can actually free aggressive energy to deal more realistically and effectively with the outer world.
All these forms of “emotionp0rn” are a syndrome, a common one used of all stripes and on both sides of conflicts.
reply 25 to max in moderation
Max Said:
What an amazing coincidence that they all just suddenly started up?
Max Said:
What is happening? Ever hear of the forest and the trees?
Max Said:
You should do some reading on ghadaffi and how much he shared.
Max Said:
Must have been all those poor peasants suddenly rising up in a twitter revolution.
Max Said:
How did qatar try to meddle and get shut out? What do you think qatar is up to there and in gaza? Do you think they are working with or against the Sauds? Didnt you wonder why, in the Libya invasion, the Euros were much more on board with it? Do you believe that the ghadaffi “atrocities” motivated the euros to join up whereas Lockerbie did not? Are you familiar with ghadaffis monetary plans and his oil deal plans with China at Europes expense? Perhaps a little reading would fill in the gaps.
Use your noggin: Al qaeda is a surrogate entity currently supplying “rebels” as they did in Iraq. Why do you think al qaeda foreign “rebels” financed by sauds,etc. were in Libya and now in syria, or do you think they are not? Are you familiar with the Saud/wahabbi/pakistan/taliban/jihadist structure and connections? What do you think Stephens was up to in the Benghazi “consulate”? Do you believe it was a video gone wrong? Perhaps you think these issues are unexciting and uninteresting compared to real live war games.
Max Said:
thanks for the name calling, great argument for something, I just dont know what? It must give you comfort and confidence in your beliefs. Perhaps these twitter wars are just a form of entertainment for you.
Max Said:
Why do you assume this, what is this wider game, are you a conspiracy theorist?
Do you believe that the US collaborations with Sauds and their surrogate jihadists of the 1980’s and the sudden new ” US collaborttion with the Sauds and their jihadists of 2012 is a coincidence. That the same ones bombing US facilities in the 90’s and 2000’s were on vacation from being in alliance in the 80’s and for suddenly unexplained reasons are now right back in action working with the US through the sauds again? Or do you believe that the US is not now working with the saud’s,MB, al qaeda which is what they are telling you. Do you take your conclusions direct from the MSM for this? Even the MSM is discussing these connections. Do you think the US did not realize the MB would take over in those countries that they just keep making mistakes? Do you believe their statements about not supporting the MB in Syria? Or is your only interest to be entertained by real time warfare?
Excuse me for the hyphens.
A single banned innocuous word stops the whole post – I must put hyphens in each word and and try to post again and again til I find the word.
It’s the Robob-censor game – hunt the word!
@ Bernard Ross:
LOL SO that’s it – you’re a “cons-pi-racy theorist”. I see your problem with social media now – it provides direct experience of en-viron-mentals and makes ‘it’s all a plot par-an-oia’ unsus-tainable.
You’ll be looking then for abstract information to ‘prove’ the theories rather than wanting to know what is happening.
All these revolutions are popular revolutions against ty-ran-ny and abuse just like almost all revolutions in history.
Certain Islamist organizations are trying to take advantage of them and that is what we are trying to do as well – it works both ways.
‘If we don’t do it then someone else will’ – and why shouldn’t they make friends with whoever helps them? If you don’t help bake the pie you don’t get to eat it.
They are all pawns in a wider game but the grievances are real.
If only Gadaffi and Assad had shared a little more or given a little more freedom then they could have rolled on forever – but they never do – they become sl-othful , but-chering , gre-edy , arr-ogant – they think they can never die and then…
OPPS! – they are found co-wering in a culvert somewhere wondering ‘How did this happen”?
Qatar tried to meddle with post-Gaddafi Libya in their democracy and for the main got shut out – it doesn’t always work… but France on the other hand got a real good oil deal with the Libyans. So unless the French are terrorists, I don’t thing Al Queda won that one.
@ Bernard Ross:
LOL SO that’s it – you’re a “cons-pi-racy theorist”.I see your problem with social media now – it provides direct experience of environmentalists and makes ‘it’s all a plot paranoia’ unsustainable.
You’ll be looking then for abstract information to ‘prove’ the theories rather than wanting to know what is happening.
All these revolutions are popular revolutions against ty-ranny and abuse just like almost all revolutions in history.
Certain Islamist organizations are trying to take advantage of them and that is what we are trying to do as well – it works both ways.
‘If we don’t do it then someone else will’ – and why shouldn’t they make friends with whoever helps them? If you don’t help bake the pie you don’t get to eat it.
They are all pawns in a wider game but the grievances are real.
If only Gadaffi and Assad had shared a little more or given a little more freedom then they could have rolled on forever – but they never do – they become slothful , butchering , greedy , arrogant – they think they can never die and then…
OPPS! – they are found co-wering in a culvert somewhere wondering ‘How did this happen”?
Qatar tried to meddle with post-Gaddafi Libya in their democracy and for the main got shut out – it doesn’t always work… but France on the other hand got a real good oil deal with the Libyans. So unless the French are terrorists, I don’t thing Al Queda won that one.
@ Bernard Ross:
LOL SO that’s it – you’re a “conspiracy theorist”.I see your problem with social media now – it provides direct experience of environmentalists and makes ‘it’s all a plot paranoia’ unsustainable.
You’ll be looking then for abstract information to ‘prove’ the theories rather than wanting to know what is happening.
All these revolutions are popular revolutions against tyranny and abuse just like almost all revolutions in history.
Certain Islamist organizations are trying to take advantage of them and that is what we are trying to do as well – it works both ways.
‘If we don’t do it then someone else will’ – and why shouldn’t they make friends with whoever helps them? If you don’t help bake the pie you don’t get to eat it.
They are all pawns in a wider game but the grievances are real.
If only Gadaffi and Assad had shared a little more or given a little more freedom then they could have rolled on forever – but they never do – they become slothful , butchering , greedy , arrogant – they think they can never die and then…
OPPS! – they are found cowering in a culvert somewhere wondering ‘How did this happen”?
Qatar tried to meddle with post-Gaddafi Libya in their democracy and for the main got shut out – it doesn’t always work… but France on the other hand got a real good oil deal with the Libyans. So unless the French are terrorists, I don’t thing Al Queda won that one.
@ Max:Yes, I have been reading the same prognosis re Assad retreating to coastal Allawite areas. The Israeli side Golan Druse are the ones I read about an increase in seeking Israeli citizenship since the Syrian problems. I think I had read a similar story re Majdal Shams. That is also where some Syrians had crossed the border in a protest some months ago. I believe there is a concentration of Druse on the syrian side further south.
I can see why it is exciting to watch it all happening. All of it appears orchestrated to me, I dont think any of it is a coincidence. All of a sudden all of these foreign mercenaries appearing in local revolutions. It looks like many of the same saudi funded al qaeda that were in Iraq, Libya are also in Syria. They appear to be a type of saudi funded “murder inc” being moved around to get things done and keep them busy. This is what the social media doesn’t tell us, but then neither does the other media, you have to piece together the clues. I beleive that the group being banned by the US as a terror group is a show for the pubic. It appears obvious that the US has been supporting the MB in the other locales(unless something happens to refute that)
David Said:
That’s a compliment – a testament to my ability as a writer and researcher.
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Bernard Ross Said:
Have you seen this?
http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/generalnews/2012/11/28/Syria-still-feel-Syrian-say-Druze-Golan-Heights_7869606.html
‘Some still root for Assad. Others support the rebels. The silent majority looks on, but whatever the future of Syria may hold, the great majority still dreams of a return to the homeland. They are the Druze of Majdal Shams, a village in Israeli-annexed territory in the north-eastern Golan Heights.’
I guess you want to know the public opinion there. Yeah single reports might not be accurate- internet chatter might tell you more.
I’m more interested in the combat situation here – when and how the Assad regime will fall. The great value of social media in situations like this is the video, pics and audio reports distributed on media like facebook and twitter of combat and reports from conflict sites. The stuff is fantastic when it comes out – all it takes is a cellphone and they got video of the firefights and the aftermaths and then someone gets it to a satellite link.
This is ‘seeing what is really going on’.
Historic stuff!
The lessons of Misrata(Misratagrad) and Tripoli is that in an armed revolution (or once the popation is armed) dictators can’t hold any city or section of a city that is antagonistic. Tanks aren’t enough because the fighters are like ants swarming bringing down large animals. That’s why once the Thuwar breached the West Gate in Tripoli, it was over – I knew that instantly – the ants were inside the liar. Assad just doesn’t have enough supporting districts.
There is another good forum social media site – ‘military weapons.com’ in which some knowledgeable members analyze the weaponry used in conflicts from actual video and pics from the conflicts they have a long thread on Syria, as they did have one on Libya.
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They say the most likely outcome is that Assad will retreat to the mountains in the coastal area of Tartous and Latakia.
“Furthermore, there appears to be a steady and discreet trickle of families of pro-regime Alawite army officers leaving the upmarket Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus for the coastal mountains.
“More and more regime supporters and, or their families are moving up the coast, and there are persistent rumors that at least part of the government now sits in Tartous,””
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That is very similar to the situation with Baniwalid – a practically impregnable mountain fortress in Libya – the Gadaffi Loyalists retreated there after they lost Tripoli. Even though Sirte was overrun, Baniwalid was not really taken, it only nominally surrendered but then the revolutionary forces were soon kicked out of there and it was not finally taken until just about a month ago.
So for a year after the fall of Gaddafi , this city was still an autonomous region and a source of great trouble to Libya supporting all kinds of terrorists and outlaw criminal groups.
Probably most Western people were unaware of this.
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If the situation follows a parallel then Assad could last a year or so there while the new Syrian Government strengthens itself – bur sooner or later like Baniwalid it will be assaulted by a vengeful and powerful new armed forces and Assad will meet his end.
The Alawites would get no benefit from letting that grinding scenario play out. If they are smart, they will circumvent it.
ie “Et, tu, Brute?”
Max Said:
I cant argue with this and many other things you mention. Certainly I do not rely on MSM. In terms of my interests, social media has value in preserving some pertinent facts for future analysis before they are massaged or deleted. My interest is often less to do with the occurrence of an event than to do with why it is occurring and what the implications are. EG the events in Benghazi linking clearly al qaeda and US interests in Libya and Syria; further what this means in the apparent support of US in the ascension of MB to power in ME; is Jordan next and why is GCC funding an apparent overthrow of another arab monarchy; How this relates to the continuing saudi,wahhabi, jihadist, US relationship in the 80’s and its “sudden ” reappearance now after an apparent hiatus whereby the jihadists were “anti american” bombing WTC,etc; What this would mean regarding US interests re its’ internal population control; is the ME being re drawn, according to what interests and why; How can Israel benefit; etc, etc. Facts which shine a light on “what’s really going on, why and where its going. Re the Syrian Druse: I am aware of what you sent, the type of fact that interests me is to ascertain possible trends EG I read that Syrian Golan Druze on the Israeli side of the border have been opting for Israeli citizenship at a higher rate and I believe that across the border and to the south is a Druse population concentration. I think that much of the twitter type of social media has to be evaluated after the fact like other non msm news. No doubt it has great value but for me it is less to do with its real time aspect than its ability to preserve interesting facts in an event.
David Said:
Yes, I know. Your sarcasm is based on your total inability to empathize with forces on the ground in combat situations and your psychological dysfunction syndrome.
You should actually read my post here – you might learn something about yourself. Psychotherapy might help to restore your emotional functioning – but you will have to be prepared to make a big effort.
No big deal, David. Just didn’t understand the question.
Bernard Ross Said:
Of course! Because both sides are listening it. But this is irrelevant to the point of usage.
Social media is a technological and informational advancement, it’s an additional tool and and a major one at that. You jaywalk the street these days in your hometown and twenty people will cellphone video it.
It’s like a weapon,you have to have some smarts and know how to use it so you don’t hurt yourself.
‘Social media doesn’t deceive people, people deceive people’. 😉
Israpundit is social media. Social media has provided an alternative to the manipulation of the truth by the powers-that-be.
Those powers and the MSM are threatened by social media and often try to discredit it in order to maintain their monopoly over ‘truth’.
Social media uses everything you normally have as a human – except you have more sources, and more importantly unrestricted and unfiltered sources – use them faster and from a distance. You can get pics immediately shot and transmitted you have multiple pics when in doubt, and video , audio, and there is or corroboration by sources known or unknown that have formerly been accurate or trusted to your personal satisfaction. You are the filter, not the MSM.
And most of all we get, what is most important in life – is the eyewitness account – narrative accounts are the main human source of understanding, not of ‘believing’ or being listed as facts but assessing and sharing the experience of others. And them we make our judgments on this according to our experience as we listen to how others present themselves.
If you are talking tactical warfare, facts taking place as they happen is supremely important especially if you need to know if WMD are secure in the here and now or if you need to act immediately or who just got the weapons or who is in control of what city or where at the gates, the enemy or the friendlies are at.
Social media are excellent to determine multiple events unfolding because you are covering many information entry points. So there is no problem there.
As for photoshopped pics of dead babies – it was social media activists that exposed these lies and deceits that were in the MSM.
There were quite some successful deception tricks played in the Libya Campaign. However that in no way undervalues or discredits these tools. You need savvy, smarts, patience and diligence and understanding of the mind of the enemy and not to let emotions run away with you.
Dead babies is for a longer term strategic political manipulation. Tactical deception is for immediate use; for instance the reports on social media that Saif and Senussi were captured as the Thuwar entered Tripoli – a tactic meant to demoralize the Gaddafi Regime. As time went by and there were no pics or corroboration so an analyst would doubt it, however since this was ‘official misinformation’ from the Revolutionary Authority it remained quite effective as disruption of the Gaddafi regime in the critical phase and chaos of the military assault.
Nothing is certain anything can be a lie, the point is technology allow us to extend ourselves further to asses situations in ways we never could before such as here.
In the ‘old time’ reporting , the news gets massaged, censored and filtered before it is passed on to us.
In any war torn places social media is the only voice where the MSM system has broken down or western reporters excluded. (Misrata & Zintan April-May 2011) and even if the net is done videos, audio and pics are smuggled out or transferred to third party carriers such as satellite coms or underground cyber nets (Tripoli 2011).
I think an excellent example of the conflict between old style reportage and the new style from social media sources was the Fall of Tripoli 2011. The BBC (all forms) was a full eight hours behind real-time events. The Thuwar spearheaded by the Tripoli Brigade had broken through the Western Gate in the evening after a 50 kilometer suburb by suburb advance and the BBC was still reporting the beginning of the assault in Zawiyah from earlier in the the morning and even worse they had there experts doing those ‘strategic thoughtful over-all pieces’ discussing the ‘stalemate’ and the whole shebang as if it was a blundering history book when the ongoing situation was tactical.
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In actuality they were still involved in propaganda instead of reportage – they had a leftist agenda to portray the conflict for months as a ‘stalemate” despite evidence the contrary. They actual had to raze Bab Al-Aziza before they would admit ‘Gee, I guess it’s not a stalemate’. heh!
They had no sense of minute by minute , hour by hour reportage. They were in the idea of the daily newspaper and mass mindwashing which doesn’t fit our 21st century paradigm.
UK is the absurdity of bureaucracy – if they ever have to report on a real time WMD attack on the UK you might as well read the comic books and kiss your behind good-bye.
So the MSM is now using social media, that’s why Anderson Cooper was tweeting from Gaza. As usual they are hoping to control how the sources are presented and put their own spin on things.
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I’m not following this thing all that closely – too much Arabic and not worth it because it’s pretty obvious, it’s not the ‘kinder box mystery surprise’ that libya was but the collapse might be really wild.
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I’m pretty sure the Al Qaeda groups are not videoing their operations opposed to the FSA who want to get the message out. That accounts for some dearth of video in the last while as well as the progress has been slow – inexorable but slow.
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Here is something about the Druze – you see this article – the comments at the bottom (social media) rather than the title story are interesting. I get the impression the Druze are very cameleon.
Other quotes I hear are often like “not with Assad and not with the opposition” and “loyal to whatever country they happen to live in”.
http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/11/29/jumblatt-urges-syrias-druze-to-join-the-revolution/
@ Max:
Ok so is the flack jacket warm? Are you wearing a Kevlar helmet? Do you have enough ammunition? Another milk break soon?
@ Michael Devolin:
Michael Devolin Said:
Because he said it as though he is there on the ground. I was being sarcastic. What’s the big deal?
“The mainstream education in the West inculcates this kind of neurosis.”
I agree totally.
“Max, So are you taking a break from the fighting? Are you at a local Internet bar in Damascus knocking down a few glasses of milk?”
What is the purpose of this question, David. Have I missed something?
David Said:
It’s worth pointing our the psychology here. As before, I pegged ‘Daveed’ an anti-war type leftist completely against agressive wars, American involvement etc. This kind if reaction here is a univeral trope for leftists that I’ve seen many times before
IE ‘If you like fighting so much why don’t you go fight, you coward!”.
Warfare really upsets them, the leftist typically is aggression challenged unable to accept or manage their own aggressive impulses,they suffer from psychological retroflection as they turn those impulses against the self and by projection of course against others as they find those manifestations in others threatening.
They have no ability for aggressive thinking, tactical military analysis, thinking in terms of what it takes to kill, to get killed, what is essential – what means life and what means death. They have no ability to empathize or place themselves in their minds eye with troops or combatants on the ground in any military conflict, so therefore no ability to accurately strategize or analyze. These situations require understanding in an immediate sense what is life, what is death, what is win what is lose adn require a psychologically aggressive mind – one that seeks to define conditions for vitory for a well defined groups of interests known as ‘we’, as in ‘we’ versus the enemy.
So the leftist also has trouble with even understanding who is the ‘enemy’ in an actual hot zone.
.
They are just confused – the idea of aggression upsets them so much they cannot think straight and worse they cannot think aggressively like a strategist.
So their thinking is just complaints – so they just complain about things like Gazan collateral damage but if you press them for what is the answer – they don’t have one or you find out they don’ care – their ability to manage the aggressive function is just not working – they are crippled.
And the same for analyzing battlefield tactics they react with shock and horror – if they could only get others to withdraw from any involvement in conflicts and no one look at the conflict then they would feel so much better.
I think most this kind of leftism is a kind of neurosis, it can probably be cured but more importantly it is a result of educational socialization which can be changed. The mainstream education in the West inculcates this kind of neurosis. The authorities do not want a survivalist, population who have a keen edge for the protection of their own liberties and an agressive urge to defend themselves. They want a manipulable easily controlled population so they teach people to be psychologically dysfunctional, This is done in the mainstream media and educational system.
The way to defeat leftism as a disease is in early childhood edcuation – you need good parenting that supercedes or can overcome the mindwashing and mindnumbing indoctrinations of the State.
Bernard Ross Said:
Hmm..what part of my brilliant, biting humourous satire did not compute?
er..Wait! You mean you think there is a chance? Somebody might take that idea seriously?
.. No, really I’d didn’t expect anyone to take me seriously.
….
Well Ok,how about giving them Gaza as an operational HQ.
‘Take my strife! Pleeese!
Anything to get the Pals out.
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I’ll answer the second part later – time to take a rest.
Max Said:
Israel has been working with the Kurds for quite a while. Why would the Kurds be interested in Gaza when they have a homeland, with which they are identified, currently occupied by Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran?
Max Said:
this is interesting, certainly to get real time info. However, I understand the social media is used for quite a bit of propaganda disinformation campaigns. False info and photos of dead babies in gaza turned out to be an old photo of a child killed in Syria. Sometimes it’s hard to filter fact from fiction.when there are agendas. Also, knowing what facts are taking place as they happen does not necessarily lead to a greater understanding of “what is really going on”. It is the multiple events unfolding which usually give clues as to the why and the where(it is going). It would be good for Israel for Syria to fragment(as did Iraq)and in this regard the Kurds are an important element, especially if they ultimately link up with Iraq Kurdistan(which I understand they are playing cagey about so as not to freak out Turkey) There are also Kurds who are anti Israel. Do you get social media info on the Druse in Syria?
@ David:
Well Davide, I am extremely well informed and following the situation closely. As experience with Libya and other conflicts shows , social media via the Internet is the best possible way to be informed. (In Lebanon II, I was on social media with a friend in Haifa exactly when the the rockets were coming in – that was the first time for me, for real time contact in a far away conflict zone).
With social media events are often reported almost instantaneously with many kinds of media -audio, pictures, video from participants on the ground or from their liaisons. It requires paying attention to Arabic sources and doing translations as well as English.
So using such can keep you well ahead of the MSM, and in any case with a much superior understanding. In the main doing such can develop quite skilled predictive powers. I called the fall of Tripoli (the official fall – not the clean up battle that lasted 3 days) -about three to four hours before a group of other punters on a certain social media and I was ridiculed for it at the time. (And that was long before MSM reportage of the events).
The lesson is that social media today is an extremely valuable tool to use and understand modern social and military conflicts.
To do this you have to collate and sort much material from many sources and analyze it impartially. We are so lucky today – we can all have a job amateur-style like the guy in ‘three days of the condor’ because of the wide flow of information – though they have the better detail to be sure.
If you are in the propaganda game, as you probably are, you waste your time -this is all over your head.
..
And yes you are right, it is a lot of work – one punter from Sweden during Libya became one of the most accurate and predictive sources for the Libya event but after several months he became burned out from full time research and gave up the ghost.
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And now as to you. You have nothing to say, you can’t say your opinions directly because they are indefensible and you are in the propaganda business so the only thing you can do is wage ad Hominems of foolish high school quality.
But I do hear your invective and frustration.
I’m sorry to tell you the events that are going down are going down – propaganda can’t change it.
There is no electorate to fool here – just bullets and blood.
May Allah grant you peace some day.
When the brain is empty, nothing important goes in or out.
@ Max:
Max, So are you taking a break from the fighting? Are you at a local Internet bar in Damascus knocking down a few glasses of milk?
Max Said:
Or more like the Hezbollah fighters will be in a position to take them. They’ll have all the intel and have their people in place as well as an escape route to Lebanon.
Shoot — I don’t like the way this is going. The black flag group attacked the northern base and beat the FSA to the weapon stashes there..
“They beat us to it, they attacked first.”
Assad’s going by the “death of a thousand cuts” , everyone knows that -it’s just what is going down in that phase is muddy . But we don’t want the AL Qaeda group to be significantly strong enough to take on the FSA in the endgame or shortly thereafter. The FSA a will be a good disruptive force against the Shiites in Iran and Hezbollah.
On the plus side there are reports of FSA command finally getting arms from funds apparently from Western sources.
Definitely we gotta be the ones to back them.
‘If we don’t so it you know someone else will.’
Like maybe Fidel of Felix will try to put their grubby hands in there. Who knows?
And the Kurds are another great disruptive force for the and stabilizing for us. They are disenfranchised and a lot friendlier than the Pals – maybe Israel should give Gaza to them and let them fight the Pals for it – they would recognize Israel in return for sure.
Anyway it wa a sour piece of piece today and dangerous that AL Qaeda or Hezbollah will get their hands on the WMD in the endgame – an FSA backed by the West will be much more secure.
Geez I just had a thought , Assad has Hezbollah fighters in his units – he just might hand over some WMD to them as his suicide gift.
No way can the West stay uninvolved.
@ Michael Devolin:
Yes, Michael, The Kurds are very much a friend of Israel. They can be instrumental behind the lines; if some sort of war breaks out between Israel and the Al Qaeda backed Rebels(If they take over Syria with Turkey). The reason is that the Turkish and Kurds are mortal enemies as well as to the Rebel Arabs in Syria. They are also fierce fighters that are not suicidal. If you remember Saddam Hussein gassed them to death in Iraq. They don’t have many friends in the Middle East, and Israel could be a solid friend for them as things deteriorate further in Syria and Iraq.
“The Kurds: we are not suicidal”
Yeah, and my ass is a star, as my dad would say. These people sound crazy just promising that they are not suicidal. Sounds like the proverbial “I’m not an alcoholic.” Yamit, are these Kurds regarded as “friends” in Israel?
the strengthening and unification of the Kurds appears to be advantageous to Israel, but not to Turkey.