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— https://hongkongfp.com/2022/01/02/breaking-independent-hong-kong-news-outlet-citizen-news-to-shut-down-on-tue-days-after-stand-news-raid/
Although up till now the Biden administration has been treating “white supremacism” and COVID19 as the enemies, not Russia or China, I think there has been a subtle although mainly covert shift in opinion on the question of foreign intervention in the Biden administration. As I see it, a number of factors have influenced this shift. The withdrawal from Afghanistan was a very humiliating defeat that cost the administration a lot of popular and Congressional support. The Democratic Party has a four-year history of villifying Russia. Although this has been mainly a pretext for villifying Trump as a supposed Russian agent, this villification of Russia, and the repeated claims of Russian interference in U.S. politics, has created a lot of hostility to Russia in Biden’s political base. Biden and his puppet-masters will come under heavy attack, even from some congressmen and senators within his own party, if he does not make what is viewed as a strong response if Putin makes good on his threat to occupy and annex the two disputed provinces in eastern Ukraine.
Of course, Putin’s threats and his movemnt of large forces to the Ukrainian border aren’t helping to ease tensions.
I don’t think American soldiers will respond to a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine with outright intervention in the war. But the USG will probably take some actions that will increase the danger of a Russo-American war. This could take the form of a naval flotilla dispatched to the Black Sea, or the dispatch of a substantial force of “military advisors,” possibly “contractors” rather than regular soldiers, and a build-up of U.S. forces in NATO countries with a common frontier with Russia, Byelorussia of Ukraine. Putin has publicly warned that any such U.S. action will have dire although unspecified “consequences” in the “military-political sphere.”
The Biden-Putin teleconference apparently failed to result in any progress in reducing tensions.
Does any of this have anything to do with China? I think so. If there are armed clashes or even a hightened cold war between Russia and the United States, it will make a context favorable to China’s own projected and threatened military moves in the South China Sea region. The U.S. doesn’t have the military forces, after several force reductions, to respond to aggression by two foreign poers in two widely separated parts of the world. If China makes military moves in Taiwan or the disputed islands, the present hawkish Japanese government may decide to intervene, even without the support of the United States.
Again, be prepared for an extremly bumpy ride.
From Business Insider this morning EST:
Not directly related to Chinese problems, perhaps. But it looks like war or something close to it may break out between Russia and the United States in the near future.
I am a student of the crisis that led to World War I. That war occurred when a similar situation arose. Austria’s invasion of Serbis led to an all-Europe war, even though Serbia (like Ukraine today) was a minor power of little strategic importance to any of the great powers. Ukraine seems to be playing the same role now in relations between the great powers.
Be prepared for a sudden and unexpected disaster. World War I came as a complete surprise to many Europeans, who were preoccupied with other issues right up to the moment that war broke out.