The New “Deal of the Century” – Does Not Depend on Hamas’ Consent.

Peloni:  Yossi Baum, one of the most interesting researchers posting on the internet, provides an extensive discussion of multiple agreements which have come to represent an outline around which the new Middle East is expected to be formed, and the 20 Point Plan is just one part of this.

Yossi Baum X | Sept 30, 2025

Image made via AI

Breaking: The New “Deal of the Century” – Does Not Depend on Hamas’ Consent.

The 20-point document published by the White House is, of course, only headlines. The full document is 270 pages long, and the many details that have been raised with various questions over the last 24 hours – are locked and sealed in the full document.

Moreover: it is not for nothing that all the Arab states stood by the agreement. This is a massive agreement that includes no fewer than one hundred and twenty countries (!!!). All of them received “goodies,” as your faithful servant revealed even before the first meeting between Trump and Netanyahu (attached). Whether in bonds, infrastructure projects, weapons, AI, rare metals and minerals, and so on.

This is grueling work built by about fifty teams that dealt with it simultaneously, with the work of drafting the agreements beginning even before (!) Trump’s victory in the elections, and accelerating afterwards. The teams involved describe it as a kind of “redistribution of the world,” similar to what was done after World War II.

It should be noted that while Trump and Netanyahu were delivering their speeches at the White House – in the adjacent room teams from various countries were still sitting and finalizing the last details. This is also the reason why questions to journalists were canceled – not everything was fully sealed. Even now there are several “swing states,” but the train has already left the station.

Regarding most of the Arab countries, I already pointed out in the attached post what the main benefits would be for them if they joined. The only arena where I was surprised was Pakistan and India. Pakistan joined (I get the impression that AI was a significant factor in its joining), while its rival India – which is supposed to be more closely tied to you than others – has not yet joined. The reason: it is bound by agreements it already closed with China and partners, and is still in the stage of searching for the correct formula for its joining.

Two European countries are not included in the agreements, it is important to note: France and Spain. And not by chance. Russia is also not included, and to ensure it does not act to sabotage the agreements, Trump announced the dispatch of nuclear submarines in its direction. So that Putin does not try to make mistakes. Portugal, for example – is in.

Take note that even the relocation plan found its way into the agreements, despite the loud protests of the Arab states just a few months ago. As your faithful servant wrote at the time – these are tactics of merchants in a Turkish bazaar. In the end everyone came out gaining – and therefore the full alignment alongside the agreements, with the “Palestinian state” mentioned only lip-service.

The most important point – the teams now sound more relaxed than they have in many long months. The agreements are sealed and signed, they say, and take note – they are not conditioned on Hamas’ consent to the outline. Meaning: even if someone thinks to sabotage the agreements through Hamas’ refusal – this will not affect the essence of the agreement regarding the “day after” in Gaza (and the Palestinian Authority), but only the immediate details such as whether there will be a ceasefire and whether hostages will be released. The other parts of the agreement, like the other agreements with all the countries – have passed the point of no return. “The train has left the station,” they say, and this is the most important point.

Bottom line:

• No Hamas.

• Iran in extreme isolation.

• Agreement on relocation (in the euphemism “whoever wishes to leave will be able to do so”).

• All the Arab states recognize Israel and sign peace agreements with it (except Iran, on which Trump imposed additional sanctions last week).

• No Palestinian state.

• Gazans who nevertheless choose to continue living there will undergo de-radicalization in the fields of education and religion, and more.

• Israeli security control over Gaza continues, with all that this implies.
  And the hand is still outstretched…

From Yossi Baum | X | February 5, 2025

Netanyahu’s Outline: What Are the “Goodies” Expected for the Arab States and Why Is Trump Confident They Will Join the Outline? – The Details That Escaped the Radar:

Many parts of the outline slipped under the radar or were swallowed up in the flood of reports. We will “make order” and focus mainly on the lesser-known points. We will begin with shattering the illusion of the left as though the outline is unfeasible, and we will see how – as always – the left misses the big picture. We will focus on the interests that are supposed to bring the Arab states to the negotiating table and to sign an agreement, as they emerge in the closed rooms. Long, but worthwhile. Here goes:

• We are talking about several separate agreements that converge together into a “New Middle East,” parts of which are already being implemented in practice. The one who conceived them – as I have already published in the past – is the same one who conceived the idea of the land bridge from India to Europe through Israel; the idea of the extended East-Med – from Qatar, the Gulf states, and Saudi Arabia through Israel to Europe; the Abraham Accords.

• And it is not Trump. It is Netanyahu. And not out of speculation – but from information provided by international sources close to the senior offices in Israel and the U.S., who updated your faithful servant on the details taking shape over the past year, already during the Biden era, starting with the Rafah outline that opened the movement of Gazan relocation (on which I already updated in September!), through which already hundreds of thousands (yes!) moved to Canada, Indonesia, and Malaysia – and up to the details of the agreements as we will now detail:

• The big agreement stands on two legs. The first – the rehabilitation of Gaza, and the second – the East-Med pipeline. Let us begin with the rehabilitation of Gaza and the interests this grandiose project generates:

Egypt – several interests. Here:

1. First: the Sinai Peninsula is also included in the economic plan. With all that this entails. And for a state with a faltering economy like Egypt, this is needed like air to breathe.

2. The “logistical camp” established over the past year on the Egyptian side of Rafah, through which – and only through which – pass to foreign countries all those interested in permanent or temporary relocation (which in practice will become permanent). For each head – take note ?? – the company operating it receives a sum of $5,000 – with part of that “cost” currently paid by countries, including Israel.

That is: the more Gazans that pass through it, the more the company’s revenues grow. For every 100,000 Gazans, the company receives $500,000,000! It should be emphasized that the numbers published until now are much lower, and in practice already hundreds of thousands have moved: to Canada, to Indonesia, to Malaysia, and other countries, where they will assimilate into the local population in a way that will not pose a threat to its leadership.

The owner of the company that established and operates it – HALA – is Ibrahim al-Organi, head of the Tarabin tribe, who just so happens to be a partner with al-Sisi’s son. Yes, yes. If by a certain stage half a million people pass through the camp, this means revenues of over two billion dollars. If a million pass – revenues double, and so forth, and they reach exactly the right pocket.

The camp itself – serving as a transit camp, with only a few days’ stay – is capable, according to estimates, of holding up to nearly a million people, and is surrounded by 7-meter-high walls ensuring that no one will try to leave it into Egypt proper without permission.

Let us recall that international parties had forecast nightmare scenarios in which hundreds of thousands of Rafah residents would die. None of this happened, much thanks to the aforementioned camp to which masses of Rafah residents were transferred. Needless to say, the land on which the camp sits is leased by the company from the Egyptian government, adding another income to Egypt’s treasury, desperately in need of revenues.

3. Egypt’s revenues from Suez have been cut by about 60%, bringing a loss of about 10 billion dollars to the Egyptian treasury, empty as it is. Within the framework of the overall agreement, Israel is supposed to establish military bases in Somaliland, located at a strategic point opposite the Houthis, in return for which the U.S. will recognize its independence 30 years after its establishment. There may also be transfer of Gazan population to Somaliland.

Such a move is expected to reduce Houthi attacks on ships in the area – to a minimum, if at all, and in any case to restore Egypt’s revenues from the Suez Canal to their golden days. In parallel, there is another channel in which Israel is a partner, through which Egypt covers its losses, which can be detailed later.

4. The super-accelerated construction and development in Gaza will also constitute a lucrative source of income for neighboring Egypt, naturally.

5. The agreement with Trump will guarantee al-Sisi internal stability (mainly against the Muslim Brotherhood, whose president Morsi he succeeded) and external (such as against Ethiopia, in conflict with al-Sisi’s regime over its actions in the Nile).

6. It will also guarantee him the weapons he needs for reinforcement in these challenges, with the U.S. holding long-term levers requiring American agreement on the nature of their use (in other words: not against Israel), especially in their ongoing maintenance, and more. The voices al-Sisi currently emits against Trump are mainly the voices of a merchant in a Turkish bazaar who wants to increase the payment he will receive for the goods he is “selling.”

Jordan – also here several interests are at play:

1. Political: like al-Sisi, Abdullah buys regime stability through an alliance with the U.S., which grants him political breathing space alongside security aid and helps him deal with the Islamic movements undermining him at home with Iran’s assistance. Abdullah may greatly benefit from breaking Iran’s regional hegemony in favor of Saudi strengthening.

The hurdle he must pass is internal Islamic demonstrations against his cooperation with the “Zionist enemy” and betrayal of the “Palestinian interest” – such as those held against him after intercepting the ballistic missiles Iran launched toward Israel this past year.

2. Jordan will also benefit from the development of the land bridge (see below), part of which passes through its territory.

3. Jordan also needs Israeli water and gas. Its main fear from Israel is being pushed into the “historic Palestine” corner and forced to accept the problematic masses of Palestinians in the area.

Here Trump faces two options:
– One, strengthening Abdullah with money and other assets important to him.
– Two – hold tight – a creative option being discussed, to grant Abdullah a “piece” of new Syria, in the border strip it shares with Jordan, and there transfer the part of the Gazan population Trump intends for Jordan.

The border strip in question stretches over more than 350 km, and its great advantage – that its overwhelming majority is very far from Israel in a way that will prevent those who are settled there, if and when, from thinking of terror operations against Israel.

Abdullah’s willingness to join the “New Middle East” club can also be learned from the fact that Abu Mazen hastened to meet him today. This would not have happened if it were clear Jordan is not part of the event.

Bottom line: both Abdullah and al-Sisi know their room for maneuver against the U.S. is limited, and the voices they emit now against Trump are mainly the voices of a merchant in a Turkish bazaar who wants to increase the payment he will receive for the goods he is “selling.” Finalizing the negotiations on the above details should bring them as well to board the New Middle East wagon.

It is important to note that on the principled level there is no intention to transfer to Egypt and Jordan hundreds of thousands as mentioned above. Here we are talking about lower numbers, with their main purpose in being included in the agreement not as a major refuge for Gazans – but mainly as an Arab statement in favor of the agreement.

Saudi Arabia and the Emirates:
Here lie interests on a large scale. In brief (expanded in a response to the post): the East-Med pipeline that was planned in the previous decade from Israel to Europe, through which energy and internet would be transferred from Israel, Greece, and Cyprus to Europe and vice versa, and which was led by Netanyahu – was expanded by him after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war that brought record-high new demand for gas and oil from Europe.

• Those who can supply Europe’s consumption are the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, who are interested in extending the pipeline’s route so that it will pass from them to Israel (precisely. Because of its stability and its energy reserves, alongside Netanyahu’s “big head” driving it forward at record speed), and from there to Europe in the original outline. Beyond the enormous revenues expected for them, they are also interested in freeing themselves from dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran.

• Netanyahu, for his part, conditions the advancement of the outline on a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia – an agreement that was on the verge of being signed already in the Biden era, were it not for October 7th, which was orchestrated for precisely that purpose – preventing the agreement that was supposed to create a new Middle Eastern axis between the Arab states and Israel, on the back of the Iranian octopus with its arms cut off.

• Netanyahu does not rest on his laurels, and has already acted to promote a land bridge from India to Europe through Israel, which Biden was also supposed to inaugurate. But here too, the one who conceived and led it is not Biden, but Netanyahu – when he walked barefoot along the seashore alongside Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Israel in 2017. Yes, yes.

• As I published in the past, part of the land bridge – from the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia to Israel – began to be built in November 2022, immediately after Netanyahu’s election victory, and now it is already a reality, from which Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Egypt, and Jordan also benefit. Attached is its route.

• Also the vision of the direct railway from India to Europe through Israel and Lebanon, and from them to Europe (via an underground passage to Cyprus. An option through Syria will also be examined, subject to the conduct of the new regime there), which is supposed to serve India in its competition against China – on the one hand, and open new markets for Europe – on the other, and as I published back then, today already seems more realistic.

• All this is worth trillions of dollars, and turns the order in the Middle East: from an Iran with many arms and a shrunken Israel – to an Israel with many arms and a shrunken Iran. Militarily, diplomatically, and economically. And especially – Iran loses the effectiveness of the nuclear threat against Israel. Use of such a weapon, God forbid, would damage the pipeline and could cause direct harm to Europeans and Arab states, who would automatically be on Israel’s side. Not so worthwhile for Iran.

• The common denominator of all these projects is that they all constitute a kind of bridge from continent to continent, and in all of them the optimal intercontinental connection route passes through stable and developed Israel. And the first who identified this, is Netanyahu.

• With his unfathomable genius, and to the surprise of Iran and the Israeli left – Netanyahu even managed to maneuver the hostile Biden administration to advance the plan (out of a desire to reach the elections with a significant international achievement), including Harris who later became relevant. With Trump it is hardly necessary to say.

• Up until now we have dealt with the Saudi and Emirati interest in joining the vision of the New Middle East. To this must be added the expectations and demands between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., interests whose agreement on them constitutes a large incentive for both sides.

• Already about a year ago I noted, from the sources connected to the agreement, that Saudi Arabia would declaratively state a commitment to a Palestinian state, but has no intention of implementing this in practice. This was the original understanding, and it puts in the correct proportions the many headlines on the subject.

Qatar and Kuwait:
The aforementioned pipeline is supposed to be built by tycoons close to the royal family in Qatar and Kuwait. Meaning: here is the Qatari and Kuwaiti interest to join the celebration.

Indonesia – again, several interests:

1. Accession to the OECD, conditional on the consent of all the member states of the organization including Israel, with Indonesia already committing to establish diplomatic relations with Israel even before the final vote on its joining the organization.

2. Bonds – Indonesia is supposed, apparently, to receive a share in the profits from bond issues worth hundreds of billions of dollars that will take place in the framework of Gaza’s reconstruction.

3. Israeli high-tech, among the most sought after in the world, is also courted by Indonesia.

Malaysia is greatly influenced by Indonesia’s policy, as it is the largest Muslim country in the region.

Thus we arrive at a clear interest of most Arab states – in favor of the overall vision of the New Middle East, while in contrast only Iran and the PA have a clear opposite interest. Oh, and the Israeli left.

Apropos the PA, it is already clear that in the Trump era, and probably after it as well, there will no longer be a Palestinian state. What is more, the campaign that began in recent days in Jenin is about to expand to all PA territories with intensity similar to what we saw in Gaza, with all that this entails.

It is important to understand the background to Trump’s statement: the basis of the Palestinian claim, for which the PLO was originally established, is an Arab claim to a state whose capital is Jerusalem, since in 1948 the “All-Palestine Government” was established which declared its capital to be Jerusalem and was later recognized by most Arab states, with the establishment of the PLO intended – according to Wikipedia – essentially to replace that irrelevant government.

The support of most Arab states today for Israeli sovereignty as it currently is – within the framework of the previous and future “Abraham Accords” – eliminates that claim in any case. From here the road is very short to removing a Palestinian state from the table, and a green light for Israel to act there with immense intensity.

The Americans too are beginning to “clarify” part of Trump’s words last night, in a way that corresponds with the details I had received in the past:

1. An Arab population will remain in Gaza. Though most will leave.

2. Israel will have full security control over Gaza.

3. The population that remains, and will want to make a living from the hundreds of billions invested in Gaza – will have to provide their families with Western education. Also the religious systems will be supervised by Israel.

4. The move abroad will be “temporary” and “for the benefit of the Gazan population.” The definition of the move as temporary is the cornerstone on which Netanyahu managed to base the mass, quiet relocation movement up to now, combined with the revenues for the al-Sisi family, as above. This is the narrative that can make it easier for additional Arab governments to join the celebration also without conditioning it on the establishment of a Palestinian state.

5. The renewed Gazan population will include people of all religions. Including Jews. With all that this entails.

If the move succeeds, economic and perceptual change in Gaza will later allow for a reduction of the interest that Arab public opinion abroad (and in any case – the Arab leadership) shows in Gaza, which need not be different from the level of interest they show in another city in Indonesia.

For this purpose the understanding is that a unique economic plan for Gaza is required. This is either a BOT model, in which the Arab states will not donate to Gaza’s reconstruction but invest in it, and later recoup their investment, while among other things the population that will want to integrate in it will be subject to Western education with all that this entails (see on this with @kobbybarda).

• There is also the model of turning Dubai from another backward Arab area into a model to emulate, by declaring it a tax-free free-trade zone, and other models, some of which will apparently be integrated into the general plan, depending on developments.

In general it is important to emphasize that all the agreements with all their details depend on the nature and success of the final negotiations. This is the context in which all the above should be understood.

In conclusion: most of the above details I received already during the Rafah entry period. Until now I had to keep silent, and did not expand beyond general and incidental statements (attached). Why is this important? Because at that time the golden age of the slogan “the day after” was in full swing. What is the plan for the day after? Why does Netanyahu not present the outline for the day after?

Now it can be said: this was Netanyahu’s outline for the day after. He shared it with a few confidants, and began implementing it in a genius and sober manner, under the watchful eye of the Blinkens of the world, who suspected Netanyahu intended to establish a military administration, but did not foresee the relocation movement he created and nurtured.

Now comes the value-based partnership and identity of interests with Trump, who believes he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize (and rightly so) and is doing everything so that it will happen. And thank God – he is doing it in the best possible way ????.