The Overthrow of the Regime in Iran Will Not Happen Now, But Later…

Peloni:  Interesting…

Yossi Baum | X | May 23, 2026

Everything that Tamir writes here is correct, and yet—the agreement now is a fairly accomplished fact, the overthrow of the regime in Iran will not happen now but later (according to my sources—around October) and in a different way. The reasons that Tamir writes add support to the claim that it is indeed going to happen later.
There is no choice, we will continue to bite our nails.

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— ???? ???? Tamir Morag (@Tamir114) May 23, 2026

Translation: 

Tamir Morag

At this moment, no one (quite possibly including President Trump himself) has solid knowledge of whether things are heading toward an agreement or back to renewed fighting. I, of course, do not know either, but I cautiously tend to assess that despite the flood of reports and headlines about an agreement, a renewal of the fighting is still the more likely possibility even now. The reasons for this are:

1. President Trump has made the issue of removing the uranium his central banner, the thing that symbolizes victory or defeat in the war. At the moment, the Iranians refuse to hand over the uranium.
2. Trump is looking not only at fuel prices, congressional elections, and tomorrow’s newspaper headlines: at the age of 80 (almost), he is also looking at what will be written about him in the history books, and he knows that the correct decision — one that is not populist — is not to go into an agreement with Iran under the terms currently on the table.
3. Trump knows that China is watching him, and that if he enters into an agreement that projects weakness, that message will be clearly received in Beijing (and also in Moscow), with a heavy price attached to it.
4. Over the weekend, the New York Post, a newspaper fairly well liked by Trump, reported that in Turkey a terrorist operating on behalf of the Revolutionary Guards was arrested after allegedly planning to murder his daughter Ivanka. Trump also remembers that the Iranian regime tried to plan an assassination attempt against him, and with him, in the end, everything is also personal.
5. At these very hours, a fierce struggle is taking place over Trump’s ear. Contrary to some of the reports, he is speaking not only with the leaders of Pakistan, Turkey, and Arab states, but also with Netanyahu. The importance of this detail should not be underestimated. In addition, even within the administration — alongside the “agreement at any price” faction led by Steve Witkoff — several very significant voices, the most senior among them Marco Rubio, are in Trump’s ear presenting the other, darker side of the proposed agreement.
6. The simple point, and perhaps the most important one: Trump understands the danger inherent in the deadly combination of a fanatical Islamist regime, the development of intercontinental missiles, and a nuclear program. He does not want to be remembered as the person who allowed Iran to threaten New York, Washington, Boston, and the East Coast, and to turn America into a hostage.