The Primaries – A Major Victory for Netanyahu: An Extensive Analysis

Peloni:  A major gain for Netanyahu came in the form of isolating Barkat from significant party support as he was pushed from 7th to 16th following Barkat’s role in trying to unseat Netanyahu in the days following October 7.  The plotted coup was quickly avoided once it was brought to Netanyahu’s attention.  Importantly, though Barkat is at the lower end of likely candidates to enter the Knesset, it should be noted that, as Yossi Baum indicates below, due to the **Norwegian system [see below], Barkat and many listed below him will enter the Knesset as MKs if Likud forms a govt following October’s elections.

Yossi Baum | X

Photo by Hudson Institute – Benjamin Netanyahu Receives Hudson’s Herman Kahn Award, CC BY 2.0, Link

Netanyahu was focused on weakening Gottlieb, Barkat, and Bitan, and he won on all three fronts. In addition, he supported Almog Cohen, Erez Tadmor, Lerner, Shuki Ohana, Bismuth, and Osnat Zohar. Here too, he won. And for the details at length:

• Bitan: The man who, after taking over the World Likud, was expected to conquer the top of the Likud list as well – remained in exactly the same place. Despite all the deals and the media campaign. Even Keren Attias, whom he ran, will reach only 34th place (approximately. See the attached table by @arbelaue and @AlonArad1).
• Gottlieb: An MK who claimed she was worth 5 mandates failed even to make the top ten, and by implication – her dream of the Justice portfolio – for which she conducted herself as she did – has vanished. Her claim in an interview today that she will demand the Justice portfolio from Netanyahu only reinforces the claims that this is an unhinged lady who is suited to the legal arena but not to the political arena.
• Nir Barkat: The man who was the undisputed king of Jerusalem, who left it only in order to take over the premiership through Likud, and now the voters showed him the door. In all likelihood, he will retire sometime after the establishment of a new right-wing government (if and when), Barkat is not cut from the material that is built for the back benches of Likud.
• Erez Tadmor: Second place in success in the primaries (after Almog Cohen). There is no doubt that Netanyahu’s support added greatly to this. I saw someone claim that Netanyahu “went after him” when he petitioned against MKs competing in the districts. This is an absolute mistake. If Netanyahu had succeeded in this, he could have brought in several times as many through the districts – people to whom he owed no less, such as Ariel Kallner, Silman, and others. He also would not have supported someone who would have competed against @tadmorerez48 in the Jerusalem district.
• Almog Cohen: A fearless man who does not hesitate to jump into unpopular waters when it is in the base’s interest – proved that there is nothing like integrity and a spine of steel to propel you directly into the Likud’s top ten.
• **The first two top tens reflect – in broad terms – the voters’ wishes, and what is important to them: the fight against the deep state combined with loyalty to Netanyahu. Those who carry their share of the burden were promoted. Those who were not strong in the field were pushed back. Here:
  • Ofir Katz (from 20th to 5th);
  • Saada (from a reserved slot at 28th, to 11th place in the primaries);
  • Chikli (from a reserved slot, to 9th place in the primaries);
  • Tali Gottlieb (from 30th to 12th);
  • Ohana (from 5th to 2nd);
  • Bismuth (from 19th to 15th);
  • Amit Halevi (from a district slot, and 36th place on the list, to 19th in the primaries); and
  • Boaron (from a district slot, 42nd place, to 20th in the primaries).
  • On the other hand,
    • Nir Barkat was pushed back (from 7th to 16th);
    • Amsalem (from 4th to 10th);
    • Dichter (from 10th to 27th);
    • There is no need to even talk about Edelstein, Iluz, and Gallant.
• Osnat Zohar is a loss for Netanyahu and Likud. It is reasonable that if Netanyahu had issued the statement of support a day or two earlier, she would have gotten in.
• The fact that Eti Attia may be pushed down to 38th place (also reflecting a decline in the power of Haim Katz), alongside Vaturi, Shai Eggs, Dalal, Danino, and additional names that almost no one knew – significantly refreshes the list, and alongside the reserved slots Netanyahu will bring, may also appeal to right-wingers who on election day are accustomed to going to the beach.
• There is absolutely no reason to eulogize places 33–43. If a right-wing government is formed here, they will most likely enter the Knesset as **Norwegian MKs. Avichai Boaron, who stood out in the outgoing Knesset, was 42nd (!!) on the list for the 25th Knesset. The same goes for Amit Halevi.
• The stories about the power of the Haredi voters in Likud is baseless. Here: Elishiv Rabin – a Haredi candidate, failed. Shabtai Katash, Haredi, failed. Barkat, who was among Gur’s recommended candidates – failed. Amsalem and Bitan as well (who were among Gur’s recommended candidates) are not exactly a model of success.
• Levin: He made the mistake of his life when he launched the reform with a great deal of noise instead of through quiet and painstaking work behind the scenes. He apparently gave that same speech in order to be etched into the public consciousness as the one who succeeded in bringing the right freedom from the left’s crushing machines, and as someone expected to inherit Netanyahu in due course.
  Levin learned the hard way that you don’t shout “we’ve got it” before the goal. After all, he would have reached third place in the primaries, and seventh in practice, even without that speech, and there is no doubt that with proper conduct he would have reached much higher.
• Finally  –  a big congratulations to the commentators from the left who predicted in advance that Netanyahu would attack Iran in order to eliminate the primaries. As they say? Rise and succeed.

**Note that the Norwegian system allows for those MKs who become ministers to resign, thus allowing additional members of the relevant parties to thereby become MKs.  This system of party patronage helps maintain party support from otherwise objecting voices who would be left out in the cold, but it also serves to bloat the costs of govt (tens of millions of shekels) and provides limited if any real benefit to the governing of the country.