Avi Abelow
IDF soldiers and a tank operate in southern Lebanon on March 21, 2026. (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
I won’t pretend to be happy with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework brokered by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
My concern is straightforward.
Once again, the international community is asking Israel to trust that the failed state of Lebanon will somehow dismantle Hezbollah—the very Iranian proxy that has spent decades embedding itself inside Lebanon’s political system, military, intelligence services, and civilian infrastructure.
That is not strategy.
That is fantasy.
Hezbollah is not merely another armed militia operating inside Lebanon. It has become an integral part of the Lebanese state. Expecting Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah is like expecting the tail to wag the dog.
It simply will not happen.
So yes, this agreement is built upon a false assumption.
But here’s the irony.
The same flaw that makes this deal unrealistic may also make it strategically beneficial for Israel.
Under the reported framework, Israel only withdraws from southern Lebanon once Hezbollah has been fully disarmed.
Since Hezbollah will never voluntarily surrender its weapons, and the Hezbollah infested Lebanese government/army will never disarm it, Israel now has internationally recognized justification to remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely.
That changes the strategic equation.
For decades, Israel repeatedly fought Hezbollah, only to withdraw under international pressure and watch Hezbollah rebuild even stronger than before.
This time, if the terms are upheld, Israel has every reason, and every right, to maintain its security presence until the impossible condition is fulfilled.
In practice, that means a permanent Israeli security zone. But what will begin as a security buffer must one day turn into Israeli liberation and Jewish resettlement of our Biblical tribal lands if Dan and Naftali.
That is the good news.
There is another reason this agreement may ultimately serve Israel’s interests.
One of the most problematic aspects of the U.S. approach under VP Vance toward Iran was that his deal effectively linked Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon to the broader negotiations with Tehran. That created a situation in which Hezbollah could attack Israel, Israel would retaliate, and Washington would then pressure Jerusalem to stop its military response for fear of disrupting diplomacy with Iran.
If this new framework truly separates the Lebanon front from Iran, then Marco Rubio has effectively neutralized that dynamic.
Whether intentionally or not, he has prevented Hezbollah from serving as Iran’s diplomatic insurance policy.
In that sense, Rubio may have strategically outmaneuvered Vance and those within the Trump administration who favored tying every regional front back to negotiations with Tehran. If that assessment is correct, it offers a fascinating glimpse into differing strategic schools of thought inside the Trump administration.
My disappointment lies elsewhere.
The greatest missed opportunity was not at the negotiating table.
It was on the battlefield.
The Israeli government gave clear strategic direction.
I know from conversations with government members that Southern Lebanon should have been liberated all the way to the Litani River.
That objective would have dramatically improved Israel’s security, created genuine strategic depth, and permanently denied Hezbollah the ability to threaten Israel’s northern communities from the border, and pushed Hezbollah fighters away from our IDF soldiers, across a river.
Instead, the senior IDF command ignored the government directives and chose a far more limited campaign.
Israel’s soldiers performed heroically.
The political leadership understood the strategic necessity.
But the military leadership failed to capitalize on what was a strategic opportunity.
History will judge that decision.
And while Lebanon remains an ongoing challenge, we must not lose sight of the broader war.
Iran remains Israel’s primary strategic enemy.
Hamas has still not been destroyed in Gaza.
Israel must ensure Hamas is totally destroyed while facilitating the voluntary emigration of the jihadi population in Gaza out of Gaza.
At the same time, as Israel significantly weakened the Shiite Iranian jihadist axis, Sunni jihadi powers of the Middle East are positioning themselves to fill the vacuum and expand their regional and global influence.
Turkey under President Erdogan has become increasingly aggressive toward Israel.
Qatar continues exporting its Islamist jihadist ideology and regional influence.
Egypt remains a crucial strategic neighbor whose future direction Israel must continue to monitor carefully.
The weakening of one axis does not mean the end of the war. It simply means new dangers are emerging.
That is why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent warning about Erdogan deserves close attention:
“Hardly a day goes by without Erdogan calling for the destruction of the State of Israel. We take these words very seriously, because if we have learned one thing from the history of our people, it is that when someone says he intends to destroy you, take him seriously.
We take these statements seriously, and we will also bring them to the attention of our American friends. We are not ignoring this.”
Those words matter.
Too often throughout Jewish history, the world dismissed leaders who openly declared their intention to destroy the Jewish people.
We paid dearly for ignoring them.
Israel cannot afford that mistake again.
The Rubio agreement between Israel and Lebanon is not victory.
It is, at best, a tactical arrangement that may produce an important long-term strategic reality: an internationally accepted Israeli security presence in southern Lebanon while breaking Hezbollah’s ability to hold Israeli military responses hostage to negotiations with Iran.
The broader war against jihad, however, is far from over.
Israel must think beyond ceasefires.
Beyond tactical victories.
Beyond the next news cycle.
The Jewish state must build permanent strategic realities that future generations will inherit.
Security zones. Liberation of enemy lands to truly punish the enemy in the language they understand. Israeli Sovereignty. Resettlement.
Strategic depth.
Decisive victory over Hamas.
A nuclear-free Iran.
And the wisdom to recognize tomorrow’s threats while we are still defeating today’s.
Netanyahu is a true leader accomplishing unbelievable feats, against international pressures and tremendous internal challenges.
We are winning. We will win.
Am Yisrael Chai!!!
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