There’s One Move That Could Keep Iran’s Hated Regime in Power—And Washington Insiders Keep Pushing for It

Peloni:  In the wake of the recent reports regarding the intended plan in Iran that went awry, Michael Rubin revisits the warning previously raised by Harold Rhoades regarding any encouragement or support for the Iranian separatist groups such as the Kurds which contrasted with the views raised by Martin Sherman on this subject that we really do not have a great deal to lose.  You can refresh yourselves on the policy debate regarding this matter  HERE.

Magic Formulas Do Not Exist

Michael Rubin | MEF | July 14, 2026

Iranian Ethnic Groups. By Mapper 01 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikipedia

When I worked as a Defense Department desk officer two decades ago, you could set a clock by it: Every few months, someone newly assigned to the Iran file, whether in the Joint Chiefs of Staff or the Central Intelligence Agency, would read somewhere that Iran was a multiethnic country and suggest supporting ethnic separatism in Iran to fragment the country.

There should be a rule of thumb in Washington, and in diplomacy more broadly: Magic formulas do not exist.

They reflect both American policy arrogance and ignorance, but they always lead to failure. President Barack Obama embraced the fiction that Israeli settlements were the real impediment to diplomatic progress.

His subsequent promotion of the issue let Hamas and other corrupt Palestinian leaders off the hook and froze diplomacy for nearly his entire administration. The quest for a magic formula was also behind Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s ill-fated “reset policy” with Russia, as well as Obama’s and President Joe Biden’s subsequent Saudi-bashing over Yemen.

In Iran’s case, promotion of ethnic federalism would backfire. Iran is multiethnic—Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Armenians, Baluch, Gilakis, Arabs, and more- but its sense of nationhood predates the ethno-nationalism around which European states began to organize in the 19th century. While there is an element of mythology, Iranians see a near-contiguous history dating back to the Persian Empire of millennia past.

That late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was Azeri was not an issue for his followers. Iranians do not consider Safavid or Qajar-era shahs non-Iranian simply because they were ethnic Turks. Nor are Iranians alone: While Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrew the Egyptian monarchy in 1952, Egyptians still honor their khedives, even if their court language was Turkish.

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