Trump’s Deal of the Century will not be tabled so long as King Abdullah reigns.

By Ted Belman

Jared Kushner, Pres Trump’s special envoy for the ME, recently told 100 foreign diplomats in the Blair House, that the Plan, sometimes referred to as the Deal of the Century, will be rolled out after the new Israeli government is sworn in and following the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which ends June 5.

But will it?

Many dates have been suggested over the last year or so for tabling the plan but time and again they have been postponed for one reason or another.

Similarly, there have been many conflicting reports detailing the plan, ranging from creating a new Palestinian state on 90% of the West Bank to not creating a new state at all.

Daniel Pipes in his recent article, Anticipating Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ , wrote:

“A stream of leaks, however, contains enough internal consistency that their collation, supplemented by conversations with administration officials, provides a plausible outline of the plan’s contents.

“These suggest the plan boils down to a grand exchange: The Arab states recognize Israel and Israel recognizes Palestine, both with capital cities in Jerusalem.”

After setting out the probable details of the plan, as he sees it, he concludes that it will fail. He is not alone in saying so. Virtually all commentators do likewise. In effect they are saying that Trump is naïve or stupid to think otherwise. Their forecasts are all based on their understanding that Trump is merely putting lipstick on a pig, the pig being what has been proposed before with new variations.

Everyone is selling Trump short. Surely, he knows that such a pig won’t fly. So, he must be thinking of an entirely out of the box solution.

The Beirut-based Al-Akhbar two weeks ago published a report which made no mention of a Palestinian state but did say the plan involves the emigration of one million Palestinians to Jordan and regional co-operation and financing. As such it is out of the box thinking.  But his suggested plan will require the approval of King Abdullah of Jordan who is adamantly against it. Thus, even this plan will end in failure.

It is for this reason I do not believe that it will be tabled in June as Kushner suggests, unless the circumstances change.

Mudar Zahran, Sec Gen of the Jordan Opposition Coalition, and I have been promoting the Jordan Option for ten years now, which is premised on the belief that both Abbas and King Abdullah will never accept a plan acceptable to Israel. Thus, I argued that Abbas and the PA must be marginalized and Abdullah must abdicate and be replaced by Mudar Zahran, a Palestinian, as leader. With the election of Pres Trump we went into high gear.

The Jordan Option is a two-state solution in which Jordan is the Palestinian State and Israel the Jewish state with the Jordan River the border separating them. All Palestinians will be given Jordanian citizenship and be invited to emigrate to Jordan. According to this plan, the PA will wither away and Jordan will replace it as administrator of Area A in Israel.

It is fair to ask, “What difference will this make?”

We will wake up to see a new ruler in Jordan who will base all his policies vis-a-vis Israel on co-operation, not confrontation.

Zahran will grant citizenship to all Palestinians and will invite them to return to Jordan for social security, healthcare and education. As a result, Israel will have no obligation to offer them a path to citizenship, should Israel annex the land on which they live.

Pres Trump will continue to cut off funds to the PA and UNRWA as he has been doing. He will also continue to undermine the antisemitic UN entities such as UNHCR and UNESCO. He has already neutered the ICC. Trump will also redefine the definition of who is a refugee entitled to UNRWA services thereby greatly reducing their number.

The Palestinians in Judea and Samaria will then have choices, i.e., confront or cooperate and the PA or Jordan. They will openly resist the PA who is becoming irrelevant. Hamas will try to take over but they will be roundly defeated. Within about two years, Jordan will replace the PA as the administrator of Area A as defined by the Oslo Accords.

Throughout this period of time, Israel and Jordan will provide financial inducements to the Palestinians to emigrate to Jordan or elsewhere. Israel will begin extending her sovereignty to the Jordan River and will build like crazy in Area C.

The end result is that we will have two states, Jordan, the Palestinian State, and Israel, the Jewish State, both of whom have signed a Peace Treaty recognizing the Jordan River as the separating border. It will signal the end of the peace process, not the beginning of a new one.

All this without the Trump Plan being tabled.

With these facts on the ground, there will be no need for the Deal of the Century. I suspect that just as Trump has proceeded over the last 2 years with pro-Israel policies, he will enable the cooperation between Jordan and Israel to succeed and prosper and to encourage Palestinian emigration without the necessity of tabling a Plan.

Ultimately Israel and Jordan will cooperate in defeating Hamas in Gaza. Israel will not have to occupy it, Jordan will.  Gaza will become another area A administered by Jordan.

Last October Trump said the plan when tabled will have semi-agreement. I commented on it in The Jordanian Option is the only game in town.

“After meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, he said “I like the two-state solution.” and added, to everyone’s astonishment, “I want a plan that’s solid, understood by both sides, really semi-agreed by both sides before we present. I would say two-three-four months.”

“Given the total rejection of his ideas by Abdullah and Abbas, how can he expect to have semi agreement within “two-three-four months”?

“The only answer to that question is that he does not expect to have a semi agreement with either of them. He expects that Mudar Zahran, will replace Abdullah, and knows, based on my writings and Zahran’s speeches and interviews that he would have Zahran’s agreement on behalf of all Palestinians to his Plan. Eighty-three year old Abbas is irrelevant.”

As a result, I firmly believe that Zahran will take power before the plan is tabled.  The plan then will simply endorse the reality and provide for economic assistance to Jordan to facility Arab emigration to Jordan.

April 29, 2019 | 6 Comments »

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  1. As if there ever was another way from Ted’s logic! Ironically, it aligns with the only g’ntee to Israel’s neighbours if ‘land’ is the issue, and not to add or subtract from it. ISRAEL’S BORDERS – UNIQUE COMMAND NOT TO OCCUPY ANOTHER’S PEOPLES’ LAND, NOT EVEN A CUBIT ON ISRAEL’S AMMEDIATE BORDERS:
    Duet 2/4 And command thou the people, saying: Ye are to pass through the border of your brethren the children of Esau, that dwell in Seir; and they will be afraid of you; take ye good heed unto yourselves therefore; 5 contend not with them; for I will not give you of their land, no, not so much as for the sole of the foot to tread on; because I have given mount Seir unto Esau for a possession.”

  2. It matters most what Israel does. Highly unlikely Trump plan is accepted by Pal-Arabs. More likely they will fight against, which they have open plans to do. Relying on foreigners including Mudar Zahran is folly. Besides for squashing any terrorism that arises Israel should be doing some of what is said in the following quote:

    ‘Don’t wait for Trump, rebuild 4 razed Samaria settlements’
    “We do not have to wait for what Trump will say in the US or what the European Union will say: We should be on the offensive, not the defensive,” Yossi Dagan said.

    Israel must rebuild the four northern Samaria settlements that it destroyed as part of the 2005 Disengagement, without waiting for approval from US President Donald Trump, Samaria Regional Council head Yossi Dagan said late Saturday night.

    “It will be a good summer if there is a construction boom. It will be a good summer if new settlements are established. It will be a good summer if one can return to the four northern Samaria settlements,” Dagan said as he spoke at a special Bnei Akiva Mamouna celebration in the Etz Efraim settlement.
    “We do not have to wait for what Trump will say in the US or what the European Union will say: We should be on the offensive, not the defensive,” Dagan said.

    “Already in the first Knesset session we must demand the repeal of the [2005] Disengagement Law in northern Samaria and to build anew the [four] northern Samaria communities, which were uprooted,” he said.

    In 2005 Israel withdrew from Gaza, destroying 21 settlements there. It also destroyed four West Bank settlements in northern Samaria: Homesh, Sa-Nur, Gadim and Kadim. The territory is considered a closed IDF military zone.

    The Samaria Regional Council has long pushed to place the territory under IDF civilian control as a first step to rebuilding the four communities. The issue is a personal one for Dagan, who is an evacuee from Sa-Nur.

    He spoke out about the matter as he sat with MK Bezalel Smotrich of the Union of Right-wing Parties.

    Smotrich assured Dagan that repealing the law is one of the party’s coalition demands. URP is still negotiating with the Likud over those demands. In a symbolic move, the party wants to rescind all portions of the 2005 Disengagement Law – except for those that require the Gaza and northern Samaria evacuees to receive governmental compensation.

    Such a move would be considered a governmental apology for the Disengagement. But in practice, the only impact of such a move would be to open the door to reestablish the four settlements. It is not possible to rebuild the Gaza communities, because Israel withdrew militarily from the area, which is now under Hamas control.

    The URP also wants Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make good on his pledge to annex the West Bank settlements, all of which are located in Area C of the West Bank, which is under Israeli military and civilian control. Settlers are concerned, however, that they might lose the option to include the four razed Samaria settlements in any sovereignty drive, if such a move happens before the Disengagement Law is repealed.

    Smotrich said on Saturday night that he hoped the people of Israel and the government were at the start of four good years during which “we will also return northern Samaria” and the “Disengagement Law will be repealed.”

    “We have made this a coalition demand,” he said

  3. I would love to see the Jordan option come to fruition but Europe and Russia and the Arabs states wont go for it

  4. Here are recent tweets from Jason Greenblatt. They appear to differ from what Ted is presenting. Jason Greenblatt for anyone who may not know is one Trump’s advisors/negotiators who have formulated his plan and will present it.

    Jason D. Greenblatt
    ?Verified account @jdgreenblatt45
    Apr 25

    “The Palestinian ppl deserve the opportunity to consider a meaningful alternative to the status quo, as does Israel…We see value in presenting that vision even if the initial Palestinian leadership reaction is negative.” -@USAmbIsrael on our peace vision

    Jason D. Greenblatt
    ?Verified account @jdgreenblatt45
    Apr 24

    .@KingAbdullahII & #Jordan are strong US allies. Rumors that our peace vision includes a confederation between Jordan, Israel & the PA, or that the vision contemplates making Jordan the homeland for Palestinians, are incorrect. Please don’t spread rumors.

    Jason D. Greenblatt
    ?Verified account @jdgreenblatt45
    Apr 19

    Another incorrect story. Our vision doesn’t provide for “baseball arbitration,” which wouldn’t work in this situation. There’s no avoiding direct negotiations between parties to reach a comprehensive deal. Anyone who thinks otherwise is mistaken.