US death toll from coronavirus passes 1,000 – Israel’s death toll rises to 8

12 Comments / 12 Comments

1. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months

   Publication date:
   March 26, 2020
   Importance

   This study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.

   Results

   Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

   Conclusions and Relevance

   In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

   Full report at: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

2. Open up the below link to see the peak projections of the Corona virus and projections of Medical needs and shortfalls.

   COVID-19 Projections- April 14th is projected as the peak

   Resources needed for COVID patients on peak date

   All beds needed
   232,298beds

   Bed Shortage
   49,292beds

   ICU beds needed
   34,754beds

   ICU Bed Shortage
   14,612beds

   Invasive ventilators needed
   18,767ventilators

   It is also projecting death rate and total deaths!

   https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR2YuaaA9Te9cuhD0qptXPis1hrIKkpOt_jEqo5tEH1jufV4oEMyo0337ys

3. 10th Israeli victim of coronavirus passes away as numbers top 3,000

   On Friday morning, Israel had 3,035 people who had been diagnosed with the virus – 49 in serious condition.

4. Latest: United States
   Coronavirus Cases: 85,749
   Deaths: 1,304
   Recovered: 1,868

   Planet Earth:

   Coronavirus Cases:549,430
   view by countryDeaths:24,872
   Recovered: 128,700

   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

5. @ Reader:
   I was not commenting about your post. I would address you if I was. Mine was a general statement about the virus and flu comparisons. I then quoted an article which expressed well what is going on with Covid-19, which is a very harsh disease killing many people.

6. @ Bear Klein:
   My post was NOT saying that coronavirus is LIKE the flu.
   It was saying that UNTESTED people who feel good enough to stand for ours in the street ARE NOT emergency cases and should be TESTED FIRST in a different facility, separate from the emergency centers so they don’t clog them up.
   THAT’S ALL!!!!
   Pneumonia is a COMPLICATION of the coronavirus, NOT EVERYBODY GETS IT.
   Those people who stand there for hours DO NOT YET HAVE IT. OK?????

7. This below is very similar to what my doctor friend has been telling me. That Covid-19 is a very harsh disease, very hard to treat, very contagious and is deadly to some. Comparisons by some to flu means they have not heard or decided not to believe doctors on the front lines of this virus caused disease Covid-19.

   Is the coronavirus like the flu? Not at all, according to doctors treating COVID-19 patients

   “It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad.”

   DALLAS (NEXSTAR) — When the coronavirus currently sweeping the world was first identified, many comparisons were made between COVID-19 and the flu. Doctors treating patients during the current coronavirus pandemic say the comparison simply isn’t accurate.

   Dr. Roberto Cosentini works at the main hospital of the city of Bergamo, the area in Italy hardest hit by the new coronavirus. He explained to UK broadcaster Sky News that COVID-19 the disease caused by the virus, is nothing like the flu.

   Consentini says it’s like severe pneumonia and that some 50 to 60 patients are coming in every day in a serious condition, placing a massive strain on the stretched health system.

   A respiratory therapist who has treated COVID-19 patients in New Orleans spoke to non-profit newsroom ProPublica about his experience treating the virus. ProPublica withheld the therapist’s name and employer to prevent potential retaliation. He admits he initially thought the disease was over-hyped.

   “Reading about it in the news, I knew it was going to be bad, but we deal with the flu every year so I was thinking: Well, it’s probably not that much worse than the flu. But seeing patients with COVID-19 completely changed my perspective, and it’s a lot more frightening.”

   The therapist said he’s been running ventilators for the sickest COVID-19 patients. According to him, many of his patients are relatively young, in their 40s and 50s, and have minimal, if any, preexisting conditions in their charts.

   “It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, holy s—, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth.”

   For most people, the coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia.

   The vast majority of people recover from the new virus.

   According to the World Health Organization, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover.

   Anaesthetist Dr Lorenzo Grazioli of Bergamo, Italy had a message for other countries currently facing increasing numbers of cases: “What I would suggest is just shut down to stop all the outbreak and not come in this kind of situation, that is very, very difficult to manage,” he told Sky.

   Grazioli said he is used to working under strain and making difficult choices about critical patients but he admits he has never been so stressed in his life.

   “When you are arrive at this point, you realize that you are not enough,” he said, adding we are 100 anaesthetists here and we are doing our best, but maybe it is not enough.”

   https://fox8.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-like-the-flu-not-at-all-according-to-doctors-treating-covid-19-patients/

8. @ Bear Klein:
   There is suffering and then there is “suffering”.
   Those who are able to STAND for hours in the cold looking reasonably comfortable and who are not at the same time in a “high risk” group are certainly not suffering enough to warrant emergency care and may deprive of it those who need it NOW in order to live.
   The “standing in line for hours” folks should have special coronavirus testing stations open for them so that they don’t mob hospitals and emergency centers.
   They should also follow the recommended social distancing rules instead of crowding together and possibly infecting each other and the passerby.
   This was the meaning of my post.

9. @ Reader:
   Emergency patients are suffering. So are other patients.

   Hospitals are also putting off all elective surgeries so as not to take up Hospital Beds. So if you need a knee or hip replacement you are going to wait until the crisis is over. Who know when that will be.

   Dental offices are closed except for emergency dentistry.

10. @ Bear Klein:
    I really, really, really hate to post this but after seeing photos of those “very sick with COVID-19” (untested yet for the virus) standing in line in cold weather in the street FOR HOURS waiting for their “emergency care”….
    What if there is someone with a heart attack, a stroke, a seizure, a head trauma, after a bad car accident, someone nearing a diabetic coma, etc. needing emergency care within MINUTES, and the system gets clogged up like this? Because someone has cold symptoms and is told he might have “the plague” and he better go check himself in as an emergency patient? Standing in the street in line for HOURS possibly infecting each other and the passerby with “the plague”?
    Imagine if this were SMALLPOX!

11. Horrible Reality in NY City:

    Overfilled waiting rooms packed with people who are contagious. Patients waiting six hours to be seen. Others on stretchers waiting 50 to 60 hours for a bed. Doctors desperately trying to get more ventilators. That is what it’s like to be on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic at a public hospital in New York City, Dr. Rikki Lane, an emergency room doctor at the Elmhurst Hospital Center in Queens, said.

    “Our hospital has never, ever, ever seen anything like this,” said Lane, who has worked for more than 20 years at Elmhurst, a public hospital with 545 beds.

    Lane said the emergency department has been “overwhelmed” for about three weeks and the hospital is in desperate need of help as the coronavirus spreads across the city, which has become a fast-growing epicenter of the virus with more than 21,000 known cases and 281 deaths as of Thursday.

    The hospital has spent weeks now expanding the areas within the facility that it has been using to house the coronavirus patients, but the ever rising rush of patients has been “inconceivable,” she said.

    “Whatever space we create is immediately filled and overfilled,” she said.

12. NY City Hospitals are so overwhelmed they have even setup a makeshift morgue.

    The Hospitals do not have enough beds or ventilators. It is a problem of crisis proportions and no intelligent person would downplay it.