A fascinating and volatile drama has been unfolding in recent weeks around the intrigue that begins in Jerusalem and winds through Moscow, Damascus, Beirut, Ankara, Tehran and Canberra. Israel, Russia, Turkey, Australia and Iran are the key players, while Syria and Lebanon have supporting roles. To the players in the field, the game is reminiscent of a regional chessboard with a lot more than two contestants.
It all began with an official state visit that Israeli President Reuven Rivlin was supposed to have made to Australia on March 17. The visit was scheduled via direct contacts between Jerusalem and Canberra. Israel and Australia enjoy a close, warm relationship, and the Australian government officials were very excited for the visit of the popular Israeli president. They cleared their schedules for him, and one high-level government official even canceled a planned trip abroad.
But then, it emerged that Rivlin was suddenly canceling his visit. The reason: At the moment, Russian President Vladimir Putin is more important to Israel’s security interests. Simultaneously with Israel’s contacts with Australia, the Israeli Foreign Ministry had also been sending out feelers to the Kremlin regarding a possible visit to Russia. After the visit with the Australians had already been secured, the Russians put forward the same date. Rivlin had to decide whether to stick with the Australia trip or insult the Australians in favor of the Russian one.
This dilemma involved very sensitive security strategic interests, and they were raised in a special meeting between Rivlin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week. Netanyahu personally made it clear to Rivlin that there was no choice: A visit to Moscow was absolutely imperative at this time.
Generally speaking, Netanyahu and Rivlin share a strained relationship, with a long disconnect between them. Netanyahu tried to torpedo Rivlin’s appointment to the presidency, and the two have been miffed with one another ever since. But this time, national interests overcame ego issues and personal antagonism. Netanyahu is focusing tremendous Israeli efforts on convincing Putin of the damage caused by Iran and the “axis of evil” connecting Iran, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah. At the epicenter of the debate are the S-300 air defense missiles that the Russians promised to sell the Iranians years ago but still have not reached Tehran.
On March 5, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported that Putin halted the transfer of the missiles because Iran violated its earlier agreement not to transfer sophisticated Russian weaponry to Hezbollah. According to the publication, Putin decided to punish the Iranians after the Russians received intelligence from Israel proving that Tehran had recently transferred SA-22 surface-to-air missiles to Hezbollah. According to the same Kuwaiti report, Russian pilots cruising the Syrian skies have recently been reporting that anti-aircraft missiles were locking onto them from Lebanese territory. The assessment is that those missiles are the very ones produced by Russia, given to Iran and then transferred to Hezbollah. It turns out that anything is possible in the Middle East, and actors can find themselves in the crosshairs of the very systems they created. This is exactly what happened to the Americans a generation ago, with the mujahedeen in Afghanistan.
Al-Jarida is seen as tightly linked with Netanyahu’s close associates. Since Netanyahu’s return to the Israeli government in the spring of 2009, his colleagues allegedly have, on occasion, used the Kuwaiti paper to leak information without leaving footprints. Many in Israel and the West view leaks in Al-Jarida as originating Israeli sources, which tends to increase their credibility. According to this theory, Netanyahu asked Rivlin to favor Moscow over Canberra to maintain his momentum vis-a-vis Putin. He wanted Rivlin to present additional materials to Putin that will emphasize the real risks involved, should S-300 batteries also be transferred from Iran to Hezbollah, if and when Putin decides to supply them.
Simultaneously, reports continue to flow from Ankara saying a historic reconciliation between Israel and Turkey has long since matured and been agreed on. So why has nothing been signed on the dotted line? Almost all my sources in this sphere are united in their opinion: It is Netanyahu who is stepping on the brakes. Defense Minister Moshe (Bogie) Ya’alon has also denounced the potential reconciliation several times in recent weeks. It is assumed that Putin does not wish to see a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey, as Turkey felled a Russian combat plane several months ago and since then has been conducting something of a cold war with Moscow.
Thus Israel is in a dilemma: On one hand, it needs to end the crisis with Turkey and normalize ties between the two states, which enjoyed a valuable military alliance in the not-so-distant past. On the other hand, Israel also needs to convince Putin to disengage himself from Iran and Hezbollah as much as possible.
Israel has a clear preference for option B. At this point in time, Putin is far more important to Israel than Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish tyrant is viewed in Jerusalem as a lost cause. The Israeli-Turkish military alliance will not be renewed so long as Erdogan’s party remains in power, and Jerusalem has no illusions. It is clear to Netanyahu that Erdogan is angling for a reconciliation with Israel only because of his political weakness, his problems with Russia, Israel’s natural gas and the fact that his standing in the region is not what it used to be.
The natural gas story complicates things even further, in light of Israel’s clear interests to sell its gas to Turkey and the fact that Russia is competing for the same market. But Putin wins out decisively on all counts: The path he adopted in Syria has upgraded Russia’s status in the region and beyond. Almost overnight, Russia has become an influential and dominant world power. Russia’s deep involvement in Syria proved itself a successful bet. Russia changed the regional reality, redirecting the bloody conflict from a dead end to another path, transformed Assad from a loser to a winner and reshuffled the cards in a Russian display of power and determination.
Recently, I quoted a very highly placed Israeli military source as saying “even if a Russian jet flies over Tel Aviv, we will not take it down.” There are endless reasons for the coordination and closeness between Israel and Russia, and Israel’s strategic decision not to do anything to rub the Russians the wrong way.
Israel is now working diligently on tightening ties with Russia at almost any price. Higher-ups in Jerusalem, including in Tel Aviv’s security apparatus, are optimistic. According to senior Israeli sources, the Russians are cognizant of the damage perpetrated by the “axis of evil” and have no intentions of letting Iran become a patron of Syria. Even with regard to Hezbollah, they understand Israel’s stance and are now reconsidering their missile deal with Tehran.
The Russians have their own interests to promote, and they have no special commitment to Hezbollah. They will burn the candle at both ends, trying not to become embroiled in a crisis with Iran in an era when all the world’s global companies are trying to dive into the Iranian economy.
On the other hand, they don’t want to help Iran gain the enormous power that it hopes to. Israel, meanwhile, is busy maneuvering within this game plan, while scoring a few considerable achievements for itself.
No mention of BDS, sanctions, sermons on the pals, etc etc etc.
I see a slow coming realignment in the ME. I even see a new possibility of Russia playing the broker. Here is a way out possibility… If Russia brokers a deal between saudi and assad it can end up leaving hezzie and iran in the cold. In return I could see saudi backing off Turkey who has close MB ties and Iran ties. Egypt, Assad, Russia and Israel might cooperate because of the med energy and the fact that Turkey and Iran are competitors. There is likely to be a federalized Syria with iran and hezzie being forced out with russias ok. Russia is appearing the one who can deliver stability to the area and fulfill everyones needs… other than iran and turkey.
The Marmara affair/break the Gaza blockade is an active intervention from Turkey against Israel with multiple long term consequences.
Business I believe is still going on in spite of this Erdo jerk.
He is digging his hole to get buried soon or later.
Turkey’s Erdogan Gambles and Loses
by Daniel Pipes
Australian
March 19, 2016
http://www.danielpipes.org/16561/turkey-erdogan-gambles-loses
@ watsa46:Passive meaning they are not shooting bullets and bombs at us!
That is why even though you can not make a real deal with them, you do want to talk to them and do business deals that make sense to both sides.
@ babushka:
No true conservative — meaning Tea Party conservative in all that they stand for — is likely to be elected to the US presidency. Even a distrusted, untruthful wretch such as Hillary Clinton, facing very possible or even likely federal indictments in regard to having arranged to pass confidential and even highly secret government emails through her unprotected home computer, is likely to beat either Cruz or Rubio, or the two of them running together.
And part of the reason for that is the growing contempt in this country for the two main and very corrupt political parties and especially for the schemers who control those parties and the candidates whom they alone and not the primary election voters determine who shall represent them.
Scores of millions of independent voters and working class white people who, if they had voted before, had voted mostly for Democrats, have been attracted to Republican ranks by Trump and Trump alone. They, including me, my wife, and most people whom we know, are supporting Trump because we distrust the present system and will never again even bother to support it. We trust Trump alone because he makes little pretense about conservative or liberal labels, which are now more or less meaningless in connection with the terrible future we all face in this country unless:
1) US foreign trade policies are reversed, enabling re-industrialization of the USA can be jump-started to begin increasing the kind of national employment base which we had when America led the rest of the world in industrial output;
2) Illegal immigration into this country is not only stopped but reversed with vast deportations, including the anchor babies;
3) Infiltration of potentially dangerous Moslems is blocked;
4) America gets out of the business of starting and fighting losing wars in vain attempts to democratize foreign civilizations for whom democracy never has been nor ever shall be implementable;
5) Our governmental structures, especially at the Federal level, are shrunken and progress toward paying down the US national debt of some $20 trillion is initiated by the next presidency, without which the social security safety nets upon which the 330 million American citizens now depends will be destroyed through bankruptcy;
6) The slide into general social decadence in this country is stopped and reversed;
7) We stop the growing race-based war in this country, which has been based on the unsupportable contention that black Americans are entitled to show rage against whites, without the whites having the right to reciprocate. Jew I am indeed. White man I also am indeed. And if anyone or everybody calls me a racist for my self-identification, my response is:
“All of you can go straight to hell.”
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
Bear Klein Said:
U have a bizarre definition of “passive”!
No need for PC on this blog. Behind Y. G. comment about Erdog is Islam!
I think a better question is “Who needs Erdogan at all?”
Simple Reality- Turkey under Erdogan is a passive untrustworthy enemy who are friends with Hamas. As long as he and his ilk run Turkey any agreement with them is highly suspect.
Israel is expanding mutually beneficial relations with Russia as I type.
These include security understandings and exploring trade expansion. Russia has close relations with our most bitter enemies so Israel will always have to keep making sure to make clear to Russia where in the sand we draw our lines of interest. So far Putin has understood this and respected this.
@ watsa46:
“Aware” is not the word. “Incensed” is the word. Have you seen the photographs of (Baby Doc) Trudeau rubbing shoulders with Canadian Muslims? Dressed in full Muslim regalia and with his hands in the traditional prayer posture? I’m almost convinced that he has converted to Islam.
@ ArnoldHarris:
I got it. Thanks.
@ keelie:
U must be aware that Trudeau Jr has opened the gates of Canada to thousands of Muslims. This is besides those who use their French connection to move specifically into Quebec and besides the increasing antisemitism in the Canadian Universities according to a Canadian MD, friend of mine.
@ babushka:
I am a patient man and I am on the wait & see. The Republican congress has shown 8 years of vigilance!!! The result is Trump.
@ keelie:
U must be aware that Trudeau Jr has opened the gates of Canada to thousands of Muslims. This is besides those who use their French connection to move specifically into Quebec and besides the increasing antisemitism in the Canadian Universities according to a Canadian MD, friend of mine.
@ babushka:
I am a patient man and I am on the wait & see.
@ keelie:
The Jewish kingdom that I cited was the one destroyed by the Roman Empire 20 centuries ago. Russia would not emerge until some 800 years later. The mistake our ancestors made was to provoke the Romans into destroying the 2nd Temple and systematically expelling nearly all the Jews from Eretz-Yisrael.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
@ watsa46:
A Republican Congress will defer to a Republican president far more than it will defer to a Democrat. Therefore, if Trump and Hillary share similar policies – which had provably been the case until Trump’s campaign began in June 2015 – a lack of congressional vigilance would enable him to do more damage than she could. From a conservative perspective, the objective will be to limit the disastrous consequences that will occur if either is elected. She would be horrible, but due to congressional complicity he very well could be worse.
In any event, just exactly what do you anticipate conservatives would get from Trump?
@ watsa46:
I agree with you, although as a Canadian, I have nothing at stake in this game… At least apparently so.
I listen to some of the comments by reputedly sane, rational, people and can only shake my head at the kind of comments I hear. Kind of like, “he uses a red toothbrush”. Then there’s the “He Lies” crowd.
My overall answer is, “Just look at what’s occupying the White House right now and his commmitment to Law and Order, and upholding the Constitution. Now do you feel better about Trump?”
@ ArnoldHarris:
Very interesting. Thank you.
I’m a little puzzled by this, mind you:
I had no idea that the “Jewish Kingdom” had any say in any matter within Russia. In fact I had no idea that the “Jewish Kingdom” existed in any meaningful way. Add to this the approximately 1400 years of religiously inspired Jew-hatred in Russia, I simply can’t get my head around the above statement.
@ babushka:
Like many on the rt U seem to prefer to commit suicide rather than take a chance with the highly imperfect Trump! When U are dead, U are dead. With Trump the Repub may get 20%, 30%, 40% or more of what they want but with the demo it is going to be 0%, 0%, 0% or less! Do the math. 0 + 0 + 0 = 3 x 0 = 0. Think twice.
I am an independent.
Fair enough.
Then you will have no objections when conservatives adopt a similar stance by refusing to support your transparently dishonest liberal fascist and he experiences a humiliating landslide defeat.
It’s a deal.
@ watsa46:
W46, you are right on target about Trump. If he gets the power, he will stop the ingress of Muslems into this country. And I think that before he is done, he will join with the Russians in stamping out the Islamic menace in its heartland.
I will support no candidate for president other than Trump, irrespective of the opposition of the puppet-masters who seem to control both American political parties.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
@ keelie:
Russian expansionism has been constant since the breakup of the Mongol Empire of the successors to Genghis Khan. And the Great Game which the 19th century Russian Empire played with the British Empire, in their moves southward toward India and the Indian Ocean, ceased only temporarily during World War I and the 1917 revolutions, then once again with the collapse of the USSR. The pace is picking up again with Vladimir Putin and shall do so with his successors.
I think they are building up their muscle in eastern Europe. There, they will move slowly and carefully, undercutting the European Union with separate trade deals with important countries such as Germany, and their local agents and friends in the Orthodox Christian countries of the Balkans (Greece, Cyprus, Makedonija, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, and some parts of Albania, create insuperable problems by undercutting the EU currency system.
With the EU increasingly threatened by the overwhelming problems of all Europe caused by the massive floods of Moslem refugees, plus the likelihood of countries such as the United Kingdom cutting their ties to the EU, they will cause increasing unrest in Ukraine and the three Baltic states. Of these, the most susceptible to threats of Russian intervention is Lithuania, the southernmost, because Russia maintains road and rail connections to Kaliningrad and its large province. It is only a matter of time before trouble develops between Russia and Lithuania because of that connective route. The Lithuanians may well start the trouble, and if so, the Russians will reply with a military response.
Next country northward from there is Latvia, with a dramatically large Russian-speaking population. It will go the same way as Lithuania. Estonia is the small republic to the northeast, not far from St Petersburg. If the other Baltic republics cave in to the Russian power, they will know better than to try fighting it out.
In the case of Ukraine, the process already has begun with Russia taking back the Crimea and the heavily industrialized parts of southeastern Ukraine, which for ample reason has been called Novorus (“New Russia”) since before there was a United States of America. Now it is only a matter of time before they take back the next slice.
As these ventures progress over time, there will be no American military intervention. Because Russia and the United States have enough thermonuclear weapons to incinerate the entire world; if it were to come to that; which means it will not come to that. Instead, all US governments, irrespective of political party, will remind themselves and the rest of us that under no circumstances can the USA engage itself in a full-scale war not involving any immediate threat to the United States itself.
With all of the above in mind, I want Israel to be allied with Russia. Because the time will come when Russia determines that Islam, both Sh’ia and Sun’a, poses a significant threat to Russia, no less so than to the West, and that no permanent deals can be negotiated with the religiously-driven madmen who, unless some outside power destroys them, control the lives, resources and future of the entire Middle East.
Moscow, upon the fall of Constantinopolis in 1453, dubbed itself the Third Rome, and indeed, the Muscovite king of that era did indeed marry a daughter of the destroyed Paleologus imperial family, whose last emperor, Constantine XI, was killed in the last battle of the last of the Roman Empire, inside the walls broached by the Osmanli Turkish emperor. The Russians never have — and never will — forget what happened at that place and at that time.
Our ancestors made a mistake in not adapting themselves and the Jewish kingdom of that era to the overlordship of the first Rome. Let Israel not make the same mistake with the Third Rome.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
A no brainer.
Similarly, smart Jews in the US and other democracies must be in an “independent/moderate party”. Belonging to NO Rt or Lt parties. Just INDEPENDENT. That allows to pick and chose what is good on any side whenever possible.
Why make peace with an Islamic fanatic? Erdogan is drifting further everyday towards Islamism. His buddy BHO in tow. Or vise versa.
A Kurdish country must rise between The four Islamic countries. This is a necessity for the “peace” in the ME.
Trump is the ONLY candidate who is confronting worldwide Islamic fascism FRONT & CENTER. No one else. Europe is invaded by a low grade cancer. Even Commentary is blind to this fact.
@ ArnoldHarris:
I like it all. Having Israel as an ally doesn’t hurt either, but as you say for the US:
This applies to the Russians too.
I’ve been thinking a great deal about this:
… but have dismissed it as a fantasy on my part. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me. Of course the US would rise up to support their Turkish and Iranian “allies” with great alacrity, so Russia should watch its timing very closely. I have faith in that country’s can-do attitude.
Israel’s relationship with Russia is significantly more important than any relations Israel could ever have — or pretend to have — with Turkey. And irrespective of who wins the presidential election in the USA this year, Israel should be vary careful not to rely on this country in their expectations of international support.
Russia is rapidly becoming the superpower that prevails in Southwest Asia. The USA, after decades of amateurish international policy-making, has squandered its grip over that area. Americans promise vaguaries but do little. Russians talk less and shoot more.
I think that in the long game, which is the only game that Russia plays, they intend to break and dismantle Turkey and Iran as well.
That will give them not only control of access by their growing naval power from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, but also direct access to the Indian Ocean and its unfrozen naval ports.
And in eastern Europe, they will take back all the western and southern parts of Ukraine and the three Baltic states. All of which suits me fine. Unlike the USA, they do not betray their allies.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
That is the question that must be asked every time Jews insist upon appeasing Jew haters? Why?
Why?