Will the Iranian People Rise?

(1) Beverly Hills

The largest Iranian expatriate community is located in “Tehrangeles” (that is, the City of Angels). In Beverly Hills alone, one-third of the population which numbers some 34,000 people consists of Iranian exiles across several generations. For nearly half a century they have dreamed of the Iran of the past, yet exactly like the hundreds of thousands of Israelis living in Los Angels, none of them is really prepared to ever return to the homeland, even if (or when) it would become easy to do so. About such things it is said: “dreams in Aspamia.”

Who do they think would receive them there? After all, they left, lived lives of luxury and comfort, and Iran does not truly interest them. They would come, visit, and return to their world in the United States of America.  (Exactly like the Israelis.)

The generations already born and raised in the United States do not know the real Iran—only the customs (the beautiful and the unusual alike) and the traditional foods. The same is true for all the generations born and raised in the Islamic Republic since the fall of the Shah at the beginning of 1979. Forty-seven years—two generations. Yes, they like to go out into the streets and demonstrate against the head covering, the morality police, and so on. They like the “freedom” of music, dancing, drugs and sex. Yet from the moment of childhood they have been nursing at their mother’s milk, and that milk is extremely poisonous to everyone except the children of the Republic. They will sacrifice their lives for the Republic.

In discussions and analyses, the expectation was always that at a true moment of testing, all the demonstrations and criticisms would disappear, and genuine loyalty would rise to the surface. Is that exactly what is happening now? Is this the reason that the Iranian people have not risen up yet? Is there hope for the fall of the regime through internal forces—the people rising against their creator?

Only time will tell.

(2) Support for Iran

Meanwhile, one cannot ignore what is happening – the world seems to be in turmoil. Who can avoid following the War in Iran? Did you find anything that surprised you in particular?

The thing that surprised me most were the demonstrations in New York—in favor of Iran and in memory of the Supreme Leader whose tenure on earth was shortened and whose arrival into the embrace of 72 virgins was hastened. I simply had to make sure that the person who told me about it had not been mistaken. Yet all the headlines reported that this was indeed the case.

When such a position is permitted to be expressed publicly at such a time, and when the mayor of New York hosts whom he hosts at an official dinner and the attendees express their firm stance by making the ISIS sign with their fingers—is it any wonder that murderers emerge from Dearborn, Michigan to carry out an attack on a synagogue and a Jewish community center in Detroit?

(3) The Day After

The War (or this chapter or phase of the War) is now in its third week, and I am already tired of hearing about “the day after.” American Democrats and many Jews pressed the Biden administration two and a half years ago to apply enormous pressure on Israel to outline the “day after” in Gaza. At the time there were 255 captives in Gaza, yet everyone wanted Israel to commit in advance to that vague picture. A very senior American pilot became quite angry when I responded to every inquiry on the subject that he would very much not want to know what that picture was, because it would very much not be to his liking. (It is fortunate an international arrest warrant against me was not issued for the evil “day after” picture in my mind.)

At present the War is intense, yet the number of those murdered and injured by missiles, that comes in drips, is relatively low. Iran longs for—and is doing everything it can to carry out—a significant spectacular attack, and the more blood there is, the more horrific the attack, the better it will be for Iran. Iran would prefer a direct strike on the refineries, or on Haifa Bay, on the nuclear reactor at Dimona, on the Temple Mount—and of course it is trying again and again to hit precisely these places.

As a consolation prize it would settle for a high-rise building collapsing—like the Twin Towers in New York—burying all its occupants. Yet even an attack in the United States or in Europe—against a synagogue or a day school—with several dozen hostages or murdered victims would also serve its purposes. Iran needs public opinion, the mass demonstrations in Kaplan (or their equivalent in the United States), cooperation from within. In short, Iran would benefit from an uprising against the American President just as Hamas-ISIS benefited from the uprising against Prime Minister Netanyahu (who, according to the protesters’ delusions, did not want the captives to be released).

Meanwhile no one sleeps at night, because one cannot ignore the sirens, and anyone who does so places his life in great peril. One wakes up, runs to the shelter, receives the notice that it is permitted to leave, returns to sleep—and so on, again and again. And since a very considerable number of people do not have a safe room, a shelter, or a secure place nearby, the back-and-forth running is particularly exhausting (though, as noted, it saves lives). Is this the routine we aspire to maintain until Passover? (It is better not to listen to the news for forecasts of the near future—the interpretations of the experts-who-do-not-know do not help very much in lowering the levels of anxiety.)

(4) Victory (Iran’s, of course)

Whom am I most pleased with? Iran! Iran’s foreign minister announced in an interview that “the end of the war depends on a promise and international guarantees that it will not resume, and on the arrangement of compensation to Iran.” For us, seasoned by the prolonged war with Hamas-ISIS, this delusional demand sounds entirely familiar. We are experienced. That was the outcome in Gaza, a sort of prelude to what is now happening with Iran.

First, an Iranian victory:  The mere fact that the war ends constitutes a victory for them. Second, compensation—again much like in Gaza, where thousands of trucks were permitted to enter, loaded with every good thing, replenishing the stocks and filling the granaries for the seven lean years.

Among the Iranians everything is clear as the midday sun. Here they have not only sketched but actually painted a splendid picture of their victory. What exactly do they want? Basic and simple things: an end to the nightmare, a promise anchored by the nations of the world that the fighting—the slaughter—will not resume, and of course compensation for the distress and the loss of property (and most precious to them—the missile and nuclear programs). That is precisely the picture of the day after. It is the picture of the great defeat of the West, the temporary victory of Iran—one among many.

I will add that this splendid picture is not the entire picture. In fact, it is only a window, like the Western Wall plaza compared with the entire length and height of the Western Wall. For the near term alone, these are Iran’s expectations and its most elemental demands. Beyond that, however, the aspiration for the global caliphate has not changed—on the contrary, it has only strengthened and intensified, and Iranian determination has increased.

Spokesmen of the Islamic Republic’s regime continue to appear on Sunday talk shows in the United States and explain to viewers at home that “people will die because Trump wants to amuse himself—that is what he says!” For anyone shocked to the depths of his soul (did I already mention Kaplan and the mass weekly demonstrations?), we are extremely familiar with precisely this discourse. We have already been told by various generals, chiefs of staff, ministers, and former prime ministers that Israel commits genocide, that the IDF murders children as a hobby (one every hour, for two and a half years), and other heaps of lies and blood libels which they—and the world—believe. As stated, Iran needs public opinion in the United States to turn against the President, and then the current nightmare will come to an end.

(5) Complete and Immediate Pardon

The United States is attacking, and so is Israel. Both are determined. The home front absorbs the blows, but does so with understanding and full willingness. As long as Trump and Netanyahu lead the campaign, it will not end until total victory, total surrender, exactly as it was in 1945. Therefore everything must be done to pray for these two world leaders, to ease their burden, to avoid any subversive activity beneath them (exactly as took place for more than two years in this country), and to refrain from idle talk against them.

In the current war we have a certain advantage—there are no captives. The price is quite bearable (for now), especially for those living in apartments and houses with a safe room—they even sleep well.

If we have learned anything since October 7, 2023, it is that we speak freely as long as things are easy and comfortable. The moment there were captives in Gaza we lost our composure and were prepared to surrender to every demand by Hamas-ISIS immediately, without thinking. It is good that Netanyahu stood firm and conducted the real war, rather than the commentators, the Kaplan protesters, the Supreme Court justices, and the entire judicial system. We have already seen how they close ranks and act aggressively (the case of the military advocate general and the alleged rape of Nukhba terrorists), and how detached they are from the world—quite literally.

It would have been better if President Herzog had stopped playing games with the pardon expected by President Trump. There is precedent, there is no precedent. There is a process with many minor officials expressing their opinions. He will listen, think, and decide. He is a king (his own words—though he soon changed course), and he should be treated accordingly. (There is also the King of Kings named Amit, but the two cooperate.)  President Trump did not ask for excuses; he expects execution.

The President of the Western world says: “I need you to release Bibi.”
The Israeli President should answer: “I understand the need and respect your request—and here I carry it out.”

Let us not belittle the need. It appears that the American President sees things that in Israel they simply refuse to see.