Peloni: You can read Trump’s new National Security Strategy HERE. The section on the Middle East stands at about a paltry page and half out of Despite it consuming the first year of his second term, Trump is pivoting away from the Middle East (and Europe too), and he is leaving in such a way as to simultaneously strengthen and caution the two Arab poles of Turkey/Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as what should be clearly understood to be the MB and anti-MB camps, neither of which should be misconstrued as being Western camps. Each of these camp will have access to f35s(unless something changes, it appears this is almost certainly coming for Turkey too), while Qatar and SA will each has US umbrella protections as being newly deemed to be MNNA (Major Non-Nato Allies). Meanwhile Trump is incentivizing each camp to not make war on one another with stakes in princely financial deals which are dependent on Middle Eastern Arab leaders to act like New York land magnates. In the same moment, Trump has indicated that keeping Israel secure still remails a core US interest, without any elaboration on this point.
The most troubling aspect of Trump’s policies, however, go unaddressed here, as he has opened the floodgates to literally trillions of dollars in funding coming from anti-Western Arab sources, something which will only serve to advance the interests of these anti-Western buy-ins to the American homeland. As to the creation of a second Pal state, I don’t think Trump has any interest in pushing this futile nation building scheme further than he has done, so it falls on Israel to stand her ground and prevent this from taking shape, preferably with the extension of sovereignty into Judea and Samaria. I disagree with Frantzman’s assessment that Israel will not finally settle the situation in Gaza. The issue in the North with Hezbollah will however be more difficult to resolve. The status quo can simply not persist and it would leave any chance of success in Trump’s peace plan in tatters. What is more, both Trump and Bibi are entering political seasons with elections looming in the distance. Leaving terrorists in place does not serve the political or strategic interests of either Trump or Netanyahu. So I do believe that we have not seen the end of the war in Gaza or against Hezbollah. Meanwhile, the selective address of Muslim Brotherhood chapters in the US will only serve to protect the movement’s expansion in the US as the US federal law enforcement appears completely disinterested in addressing the expansion of sharia law enclaves in the US, which should be a priority.
Time will tell of course.
Clearly, the White House will not welcome more wars between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN | DECEMBER 6, 2025
Much of the discussion about the strategy focuses on its view of Europe. It was already clear that the administration was skeptical of Europe and wanted to focus more domestically and on the Western Hemisphere.
The strategy doesn’t concern itself much with the Middle East. This is interesting because Trump has focused much of his doctrine in the first year of his second administration on the region. He bombed Iran and helped end the 12-day war between Jerusalem and Tehran. He pushed for the Gaza ceasefire and also worked with the UN to get a resolution supporting it. He has also worked with the Saudis and the new Syrian government.
As such, one might get the impression that the White House is intensely focused on the Middle East. For a decade, US policymakers, going back to the Obama administration, have tried to wind down the US role in the region. This is a result of a kind of hangover from the Gulf wars and the Global War on Terrorism.
“On my first day in office, we restored the sovereign borders of the United States and deployed the US military to stop the invasion of our country. We got radical gender ideology and woke lunacy out of our Armed Forces, and began strengthening our military with $1 trillion of investment,” Trump wrote in the new strategy.
“In Operation Midnight Hammer, we obliterated Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity. I declared the drug cartels and savage foreign gangs operating in our region as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. And over the course of just eight months, we settled eight raging conflicts – including between Cambodia and Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, the [Democratic Republic of Congo] and Rwanda, Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and ending the war in Gaza with all living hostages returned to their families. America is strong and respected again – and because of that, we are making peace all over the world.”
US wants Israel to be secure, take responsibility for its own policies
The US wants Israel to remain secure. But it also wants Israel to be able to take responsibility for its own policies. That means the US can’t always step in to help Israel deal with Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, or Iran. The US also wants peace in the region, not more wars. Israeli leaders tend to hint at more wars with Iran, Hezbollah, or Hamas.
In addition, it notes that “the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains thorny, but thanks to the ceasefire and release of hostages President Trump negotiated, progress toward a more permanent peace has been made.”
The section on Syria is interesting, calling the country a “potential problem,” which is less upbeat than Trump’s recent statements about Damascus. The strategy calls for Arab countries, Israel, and Turkey to support stabilization in Syria. The White House has not been happy with Israel’s bombing and incursions into Syria.
Overall, the administration believes that the US doesn’t have the same historic reasons to be focused on the Middle East today.
“Instead, the region will increasingly become a source and destination of international investment, and in industries well beyond oil and gas, including nuclear energy, AI, and defense technologies. We can also work with Middle East partners to advance other economic interests, from securing supply chains to bolstering opportunities to develop friendly and open markets in other parts of the world, such as Africa.”
For this to happen, conflict can’t underpin the region.
The US wants to make sure that Gulf energy supplies continue to flow and the “Strait of Hormuz remains open.” The Red Sea will also need to be free from attacks on shipping. The US wants Israel to remain secure, but the document is light on other details. “We also have a clear interest in expanding the Abraham Accords to more nations in the region and to other countries in the Muslim world,” it says.
At the end of the day, the administration doesn’t want the region to dominate the US foreign policy focus. It dominated in 2025. The administration has done much for Israel.
The White House wants to see the region flip into an area for “partnership, friendship, and investment – a trend that should be welcomed and encouraged. In fact, Trump’s ability to unite the Arab world at Sharm el-Sheikh in pursuit of peace and normalization will allow the United States to finally prioritize American interests.”
Clearly, the White House will not welcome more wars between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran. This means that when politicians in Jerusalem talk and boast about disarming Hezbollah in another military campaign, or claiming the IDF will go back into parts of Gaza where two million people live, there is not going to be a lot of welcome for this in Washington.
The question is whether the strategy will be fulfilled as part of the “Trump Doctrine,” or whether the White House will continue to try to manage various issues in the region.
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