Arlene Kushner | December 9, 2025
Evan Vucci/AP
When last I wrote, I addressed Trump’s penchant for simplifying the situation in the Middle East in order to conform to his vision of how matters should be proceeding. “Should be” because he wants to be hailed as a peacemaker, and because he hopes for stability (which might look like peace but is not) so that he can focus elsewhere. Eager to see speedy resolution of an exceedingly complex situation, he tends to paint a picture that is illusory.
When taking questions from the press in the Oval Office last Wednesday, he was asked about the next stage of his plan. He replied that it would be happening pretty soon, as things were going very well.
“We have peace in the Middle East,” he declared. “People don’t realize it.”
Encouraging words. But wait! Immediately before saying that things were going well, he said, “They had a problem today with a bomb that went off — hurt some people pretty badly, probably killed some people.”
This was with reference to an ambush by terrorists in Rafah who came out of a tunnel and launched an RPG at an armored vehicle. Several IDF soldiers were wounded, one seriously. Israeli forces later carried out airstrikes in Khan Younis and Gaza City. Nor was this an isolated incident. In point of fact there is no genuine ceasefire.
See the video clip: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DR0YD8wjb9C/
This is Trump’s “peace.”
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The president is pushing to get to that second stage of his plan. But the basic minimum explicitly called for in the first stage – the return of all Israeli hostages – has not been completed.
And here I must stop for a minute to offer an apology. In my last post, I provided the correct picture but the wrong name for the remaining hostage held by Hamas. Shame on me. The proper information:
Still held by Hamas is Staff Sgt. Ran Gvili, 24, who was with the Israel Police Special Patrol Unit (Yasam). Incredibly, he rescued roughly 100 Nova music festival survivors and killed 14 Hamas terrorists before being abducted and murdered.
Courtesy Hostages and Missing Families Forum
Said his sister, Shira, at a rally Friday. “He’s always been first. First to help, first to assist, first to save. Rani was the first to put on the blue uniform and run straight into hell.”
Now he is the last to come out, but come out, he must!
Israeli officials are convinced that Hamas knows where Ran is located.
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Part of the problem with moving forward on the 20-point “peace plan” – a major part – is the active participation of Qatar and Turkey, two pro-Hamas entities that Trump saw fit to include at significant levels.
Speaking at a Doha conference on Saturday, Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, said that mediators are working to push the next phase of ceasefire forward:
“We are at a critical moment. It’s not yet there. So what we have just done is a pause… We cannot consider it yet a ceasefire. A ceasefire cannot be completed unless there is a full withdrawal of the Israeli forces…” (Emphasis added)
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-879377
Press Office of Al Thani
And Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking on the sidelines of that Doha conference, said that expecting Hamas to disarm in the first phase of the ceasefire deal is neither “realistic nor doable.” He said that first “a credible Palestinian civil administration and a vetted, trained police force” should be in place. This would give Hamas the room to disarm.
Understand that what he’s talking about is involvement of the Palestinian Authority, in whatever form, to assume administration of Gaza.
Fidan further indicated that Washington is pressing Israel over Turkey’s bid to join the force. Israel is adamantly opposed to the involvement of Turkey.
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Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal had his say on Saturday, as well, when speaking by video link at a pro-Palestinian conference in Istanbul (emphasis added):
“The time has come for the ummah [the Islamic nation] to commit to the liberation of Jerusalem as the banner and symbol of freeing Palestine; to cleansing the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque; and to reclaiming Islamic and Christian holy sites…”
The international anti-Israel sentiment that has emerged since Oct. 7, he says, has created opportunities “to remove this entity [Israel] from our homeland and exclude it from the international stage.”
“The resistance and its weapons are the ummah’s honor and pride…
“This is our land, our homeland, this is our destiny and we are a people who do not break.”
BBC News
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Israeli officials are convinced that Turkey and Qatar are working to dismiss the requirement that Hamas disarm.
Hamas Shura Council member Bassen Naim addressed the issue of what Hamas might do with its weapons yesterday. One suggestion on the table involves temporarily “freezing or storing” the weapons during the ceasefire period. This would be part of a process aimed at establishing a Palestinian state.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-879555
The picture being painted here by the Islamists is not subtle, it is imminently clear: Hamas might be willing to “freeze or store” its weapons in lieu of turning them over, in a gesture that would be designed to stifle demands for disarmament. This would be temporary. Once the Palestinian Authority was in control in Gaza, Hamas would join with the PA, perhaps as part of the police forces. They could even bring their own weapons.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio gets all of this. In response to Mashaal’s statement (above), a State Department spokesperson told JNF that “Hamas has agreed to all 20 points of President Trump’s 20 Point Plan. That means Gaza will be fully demilitarized for the sake of Gazans.”
A question of significant proportions: Does Rubio have Trump’s ear?
Allison Robbert/ AFP
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Yesterday (Monday), when addressing the Knesset, Prime Minister Netanyahu was quite clear about the requirement that Hamas must disarm (Emphasis added):
“How did Khaled Mashaal put it yesterday? ‘We will continue on our path and we will not disarm.’ But we—and I commit to you—will not allow Hamas murderers to rearm and threaten us again.
“We are acting every day to prevent this, and this mission will be completed either the easy way or the hard way.”
https://www.washingtonjewishweek.com/netanyahu-again-vows-to-disarm-hamas/
Knesset Channel
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Perhaps most important with regard to the Israeli position on Gaza is perhaps this:
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said on Sunday that “the ‘Yellow Line’ that divides the Gaza Strip into territory controlled by Hamas and territory controlled by Israel is a new border line — serving as a forward defensive line for our communities and a line of operational activity.
“We will not allow Hamas to reestablish itself. We are operating to thwart and remove threats in all arenas. We will not tolerate threats against our troops, and we will respond to any attempt. We have freedom of operation – both here in the Southern Command and across all arenas.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1ro6mqzzl?minutetv=true#google_vignette
According to Trump’s plan, in stage 2 Israel is supposed to pull back from this line and be replaced by an international force. Clearly, Zamir has no confidence in that force (which has yet to even be formed), and he is backed soundly in this position by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Secretary of Defense Katz and the Cabinet.
IDF
I have written a good deal recently about a plan to divide Gaza, with Hamas on one side of the yellow line and Israel on the other, and civilians moved to the Israeli side. But now I am seeing no mention of this, which was envisioned as an alternative to stage 2. What Zamir is referring to is not the same thing.
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Just out as I am writing: Hamas has now said that the Gaza ceasefire plan cannot proceed to its second phase as long as Israeli “violations” persist.
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Netanyahu will be meeting with Trump at his Mar-a-Lego residence in Florida on December 29 and will be discussing the second stage. It is unlikely that there will be any significant change in the situation until then, but who knows.
The strength and resolve of the prime minister will be exceedingly important during this meeting.
But in the end, given Hamas intransigence and intention of remaining a fighting force, it is difficult to imagine any resolution to the situation other than a return to all-out war. This is the “hard way” that Netanyahu referred to.
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Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael: for the wisdom and courage of our leaders, the healing of the returned live hostages, return of the final deceased hostage, and our final victory over Hamas.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution
Sadly there are no pleasant surprises in Gaza.
Hamas insist that they have to get the freedom to rearm and regroup and that the IDF has to be far away, probably like Cyprus, before they can advance to phase 2.
Israel insists that Hamas must fulfill their part of phase 1 before phase 2 can be even considered. To be quite clear about this, Hamas must disarm and disband, not the exact opposite, which is what they are currently working on.
The only way to get even close to phase 2 is for them to comply with the deal. However, to the best of my knowledge, Hamas did not sign the deal, so they do not feel that they need to comply with it. In essence, they have maneuvered themselves into a classic Hudna, which simply means that they will rearm, regroup and prepare for their next round of 10/7 if the IDF does not stop them in their tracks.
The big open questions are how they manage to rearm and regroup under the noses of the IDF, Egypt and all the “intelligence” operatives from all over the world including satellite monitoring and so on. Either they are all asleep at the wheel, or they are complicit.