Peloni: Mike Doran and Gadi Taub discuss the conclusion that when Trump calls for Regime Change in Iran, he is actually signalling Regime Transformation, as explained below. An important point confirming this suggestion is Trump’s recent comment explaining that many of the potential future leaders with whom he contemplated possibly engaging actually died in the attack alongside Khamenei.
Peloni
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A very interesting and thought provoking conversation by Mike Doran and Gadi Taub regarding the future paths of war and peace in Iran. In the first 30 minutes, Mike argues that Trump is straddling the line between premiere policies pursued by both Obama and George W. Bush, i.e. the JCPOA and regime change, both of which Trump has been highly vocal in criticizing over the years. He argues that Trump is in fact trying to not be Bush while also not being Obama leaves him with the choice of pursuing regime transformation rather than preserving or replacing the regime in Iran.
He argues that the possibility of a coordination of pressure between public uprisings and US-Israeli bombing has the potential of forcing the regime to change in significant ways, the outcome of which however is publicly unclear. Despite this lack of clarity on what will come to be realized in Iran on the Day After the war, Doran acknowledges that he has a source who has confirmed that there is a plan for the Day After in Iran, and right now things are looking very good towards that eventuality.
Meanwhile Gadi discusses six possible outcomes which might come from the war, to which Mike adds the possibility of civil war and foreign intervention by Turkey, Azerbaijan or Pakistan. Mike also asserts that Trump does NOT want regime change, but regime transformation as explained above, and that there is no possibility of Trump having a stable govt in Iran going forward without cutting a deal with the IRGC due to them being entirely integral to Iran’s working economy. He also shares his views disputing the potential of Pahlavi playing any significant/independent role in Iran’s future.
Much more in the later two thirds of the video as well.
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