Peloni: Yishai Fleischer interviews Dr. Mordechai Kedar and they discuss the fallout surrounding the execution of Khamenei. Towards the end of the interview they raise the topic of what the endgame of the war might be, to which Dr. Kedar asserts rather conclusively that the outcome will see Iran being broken apart. So, will the final outcome of the liberation of Iran come to be realized in the form of multiple smaller states? This debate between the continued unity of Iran and it being dissembled into a series of states based on the member ethnic groups is best described by Dr. Martin Sherman and Dr. Harold Rhodes in characterizing the benefits and rationales for these two models for the Day After the Mullahs. Personally, I think the better outcome for everyone will be found in multiple smaller states, and this likelihood is increased as Pres. Trump has recently suggested that he might make use of the militant groups associated with the separatist ethnic groups.
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So, Trump is helping the Kurds now? Well, It’s about time, but it’s pretty late in the game, isn’t it. The Kurds were loyal allies in fighting ISIS and Al Qaeda, but Trump thanked them by screwing them over multiple times, and for what? To impress Turkey? It’s time to stop that shit, and be straight up about it. You support your friends and fight your enemies. Stop playing games. I might also add that Trump, (in spite of Bibi’s praise), has not always been totally straight up with Israel either, hence the current unresolved Gaza mess.
Back to the issue….The idea of breaking up Iran and encouraging multiple smaller states might be good one…IF it results in a weaker Iran and more US allies, (i.e. Kurdistan?), in the region. If, however multiple hostile entities are the result, then our problems are only compounded.
Lastly, I am not encouraged by this morning’s news that Ali Khamenei’s son is the heir apparent. If that really happens, then for all the recent hoop-la, all we have done is to buy ourselves six months of relative peace, and then they will be back with a vengance, and neither the US nor Israel will be able to muster such a fearsome attack again. The current euphoria and optimism is almost certain to be short-lived.