Arlene Kushner | May 5, 2026
Iran attacks UAE with 15 missiles. May 4, 2026
It’s a very big guessing game: the question of whether or not Trump is going to reverse tactics and begin bombing Iran again.
We here in Israel have grown weary of trying to figure it out – especially as it is not clear that Trump himself has decided.
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We do know that his current tactic of blocking Iranian ports – which seriously affects Iranian maritime trade, most notably regarding oil – has generated a huge financial blow to the Iranian regime, which was struggling fiscally even before this tactic was initiated.
Add to this a tightening of sanctions, which further exacerbates Iran’s situation.
However, this approach has not (yet) brought the regime down – or weakened it sufficiently to get it to agree to satisfactory negotiation terms – and it is not clear that this will happen in the short term. There are those in the regime who estimate they can hold out, even though there will be major shortages and deprivation across the country. (Which means – no surprise – that they have no concern for the citizenry.)
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We have had reason to believe, from various and assorted reports, that the regime is divided.
“Political differences in Iran have been exacerbated by the absence of Mojtaba Khamenei (the new ayatollah), who is living in hiding and is reportedly gravely wounded. He has minimal contact with Iranian officials, according to reports.
“The lack of a decisive central authority…has likely allowed…disputes [re: continuing the war vs. negotiating while it is still possible] to escalate into the public domain rather than remain contained within regime channels,” according to the Institute for the Study of War, April 28.
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-politics-divide-us-israeli-war-/33745286.html
Trump says he will negotiate only with a regime that has come together to speak with one voice, which makes sense. It is pointless otherwise.
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There are some indications that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the toughest of Iranian elements – is in charge.
https://jcfa.org/the-irgc-shifts-irans-real-power-from-the-supreme-leader-to-its-own-command/
Just yesterday (Monday) Iran attacked the UAE, with 15 missiles and four drones fired. One drone sparked a fire at a key oil facility, and the British military reported two cargo vessels ablaze off the UAE.
This was the first time Iran had done this since the ceasefire went into effect. The attack was apparently in response to US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz. (The US military said two American-flagged merchant ships had successfully transited the strait on Monday, with escort.)
But note that it was the UAE that was hit, not American bases and not Israel, as attacks on either of these targets would have elicited a tough response.
An Iron Dome battery, which Israel had deployed to Abu Dahbi along with technicians to operate it during the war, was utilized in this attack.
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What is to be noted here is that according to an Iran International report, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian (pictured) has voiced sharp criticism of the attack on the UAE, which was activated – without coordination with the government – by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, led by Ahmad Vahidi. The president reportedly described the attack as irresponsible. He still believes diplomatic engagement is possible.
This report serves as confirmation of divisions within the regime.
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We have been told that Trump has been presented with some new military plans for a heavy, short-term attack on Iran. But then I read that these plans were not actually new: he had reviewed them roughly two weeks ago but was presenting them as new to pressure Iran.
He has rejected one Iranian proposal, as well he should have. It called for an end to the US naval blockade, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a delay in nuclear negotiations.
Iran on Thursday presented the United States with a 14-point updated proposal for a framework to end the war.
“I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us,” Trump wrote, “but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to humanity, and the world, over the last 47 years.”
According to two sources briefed on the plan, it proposes a one-month deadline for talks on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade and permanently end the fighting in Iran and Lebanon. Negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program would only start after an initial agreement is reached.
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Until very recently, my tentative assumption was that Trump was going to opt for at least a short-term continuation of his current plan of blocking Iranian ports, rather than actively attacking. My logic was based on my understanding of the realities Trump was contending with at home:
The American war with Iran has not been popular in the US: roughly 60% of Americans are against it.
Unfortunately, many Americans are oblivious to the very real threat to the US of a vigorously armed and potentially nuclear Iran.
There is a thread of isolationism that has appeared in American political thinking of late after many years of active American involvement in the state of the world. Some see Trump as isolationist, while in fact he is not. He’s been exceedingly activist in attempting to “fix” the world but is sometimes misread as isolationist because of some of his demands – for example, that other nations carry their own weight financially, as with NATO. Vice President JD Vance is of an isolationist bent.
Drawing upon this isolationist sentiment are anti-Israel elements who have painted a seriously erroneous picture of an Iran that is a threat only to Israel, with Israel having dragged Trump into the fighting.
This is a picture that has been accepted in several quarters. But the fact is that Iranian missiles and drones have been fired at US forces, American bases and embassies and at America’s allies in the Gulf (as was the case just yesterday). The Iranian regime has armed and encouraged terrorist proxies that are responsible for numerous American deaths.
What is more, Iran is actively developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that it anticipates would one day reach the US.
The fight against Iran is America’s fight, as it is Israel’s.
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All of the American unrest regarding the war has been of particular concern to Trump because a mid-term election is six months away and a disgruntled citizenry would make it more difficult for the Republicans to retain control of Congress.
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Additionally, there is forthcoming action in Congress with regard to his right as president to wage war without Congressional approval. The 1973 War Powers Resolution requires the president to end military activity within 60 days of its launch (with an additional 30-day withdrawal period) unless Congress has explicitly authorized its continuation. That deadline was rapidly approaching. Trump has now officially informed Congress that the war has “terminated.” He made clear, however, that the campaign against the regime would continue via other means.
In point of fact, enforcement of this law has been a bit fuzzy over time, but it is possible that Trump was reluctant to test this, in light of current US sentiment on the war.
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In the last few days, there has been increased sentiment that Trump indeed will be attacking Iran again soon, and possibly in joint action with Israel. Several reasons are advanced for an anticipated strike.
There have been high level meetings that have taken place over the last several days, e.g., Trump’s briefing with senior US generals, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the head of US Central Command last Thursday.
And then, then there is the exceptionally large shipment of 6,500 tons of US military equipment that arrived in Israel on Friday.
The equipment was carried on two cargo ships, which docked at the Haifa and Ashdod ports, and several planes. It included “thousands of air munitions, ground munitions, military trucks, JLTV combat mobility vehicles, and additional equipment,” which was loaded on trucks and taken to various military bases across the country.
Director-General of the Defense Ministry Amir Baram says the procurement operation “will continue and intensify in the coming weeks.”
This is stunning. The 6,500 tons of equipment represents the largest delivery of military material in years, and this is apparently not the end of it.
It is reasonable to assume that this equipment is intended to serve one of two possible purposes. It may be necessary defensively if Iran hits Israel in retaliation for an American strike. Or, more likely, it may be employed in some measure in joint action that Israel will undertake with the US.
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In addition to the above, the Defense Ministry has announced that in about a month the US will be delivering to Israel the first of at least six KC-46 midair refueling aircraft, named Gideon.
These planes will provide Israel with greater independence and flexibility in attacking enemies at a considerable distance – whether the Islamic regime, or the Houthis of Yemen.
This is after a wait of years, and it cannot be a coincidence that these planes are being delivered now.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-895049
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And now, the media is awash in predictions that hostilities with Iran may begin again soon. Dissatisfaction with the Iranian position leads Trump to the likely conclusion that military action is called for. What is anticipated is a fierce and speedy action – not a drawn-out war, which is not Trump’s preference. Trump is estimating two to three weeks.
On Saturday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that renewed military action against Iran was a possibility if the mullahs “misbehave, if they do something bad.
“Right now, we’ll see. It’s a possibility that could happen, certainly.”
https://www.jns.org/news/u-s-news/trump-iran-war-could-be-renewed-if-mullahs-misbehave
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Israel is tracking events and prepared for all eventualities of war. High level security meetings have been held and will continue to be held.
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But now we have this: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has announced at a press conference that the ceasefire is intact in spite of the recent aggression against UAE (which was attacked for a second day now), which does not reach the threshold for war. The war and the effort to open the Strait are “separate and distinct” issues, he maintained.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/05/05/pentagon-iran-aggression-ceasefire-threshold/
Do not bang your heads against the wall, my friends. This is game playing and we have no choice but to wait and see how this plays out. But I suppose there is less clarity with regard to what we know and don’t know than I would have presumed at this point.
Bottom line is that we do not know how Trump will decide to act in the end – although my guess after all that I have reviewed here is that he will attack, Hegseth’s comments notwithstanding.
There is the question then as to what Trump would hope to achieve with an attack. I keep reading that he wants to pressure them to negotiate. But there is no way, not ever, that the Islamists of Iran will concede even the minimum that is required by the US and Israel in the course of negotiations. Pezeshkian prefers negotiations to fighting, but on his terms, we can be certain. And then?
I must note here that one of the provisions in deals proposed by Iran is end of all hostilities in Lebanon. They aim to save Hezbollah. But Israel will not concede this, whatever else might be agreed upon.
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I ask, as I always do, that you please pray.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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