Trump’s Deal Rescues Hezbollah Just As Its Political Base in Lebanon Was Dissolving

Peloni:  This is the point which I have been making for some time now.

Trump having created the linkage between Israel responding to Hezbollah attacks in Lebanon and US negotiations with Iran only serves to secure the Lebanese people in the grip of Iran and its occupying proxy force, Hezbollah.  While shading Israel efforts to end Hezbollah’s dominion over South Lebanon as being Israel trying to ‘kill everybody’, Trump has effectively turned his back on the growing number of people in Lebanon demanding a future free of the Iranian tyranny which holds the Lebanese Christian community as dhimmis.  Trump also similarly ignored the cries of minority communities in Syria as he promoted the Islamist govt of Jolani which instituted its own tyrannical genocidal attacks  over the local Syrian minorities.  It seems relevant that this is also reminiscent of Trump’s efforts to safeguard the IRGC over both the freedom loving people of Iran, as well as the people of the entire region who simply want to throw off the Iranian suzerainty that Trump is inexplicably securing in place.  The support for such tyrannical regimes as these isolates and diminishes dissenting voice, and these voices are the real source from which any chance of peace in the region might arise.  This is the point which Trump should be championing rather than ignoring and thereby crushing the aspirations of those who earnestly want peace in the region.

By Hugh Fitzgerald | June 22, 2026

Trump announcing strikes on Iran, February 28 2026, Donald J. Trump, Public domain

Many of the Shi’a in Lebanon are now looking for a political alternative to Hezbollah, that has dragged them into a disastrous war with Israel. Hezbollah’s war against Israel that began on October 8, 2023, has led to the destruction of many buildings of the Shi’a stronghold in Dahiyeh, southern Beirut, and hundreds of thousands of Shi’a have now been displaced from eastern Lebanon. They seek an alternative to Hezbollah, one that will not be a proxy of Iran, but reflect only the interests of Lebanese Shi’a.  More on the diminished support for Hezbollah in Lebanon can be found here: “Economic strain weakens Hezbollah support base in Lebanon, ITIC assessment finds,” by Danielle Greyman-Kennard, Jerusalem Post, June 21, 2026:

The economic consequences of Hezbollah’s decision to drag Lebanon into another war on behalf of the Islamic Republic have the terror group’s Shiite support base increasingly looking to ideological alternatives, according to an assessment published by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC).

Still recovering from the cost of Hezbollah’s decision to attack Israel on October 8, 2023, in support of its terror ally Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel, confidence in Hezbollah’s ability to pay the cumulative cost of damage is quickly dampening, and some of its supporter base are beginning to look for political alternatives.

Many want to see a group emerge that is loyal to Beirut, seeking to reduce Iran’s control over Lebanon, though such desires have yet to materialize into a real alternative, ITIC noted in its assessment.

The Forum of Shi’ite Lebanese, established in June 2025, has manifested as a potential future alternative, emphasizing the need to return the powers of security, war and peace to the Lebanese state, strengthen the Lebanese army, and establish a broad national partnership of all components of Lebanese society. The group advocated for positive, but not subordinate, relations with Iran.

Lieutenant-Colonel (res.) Dr. Moran Levavoni, a researcher with the Institute for National Security Studies, explained to The Jerusalem Post that there was still very much a “standstill” in Lebanon, especially given Iran’s recent success in negotiations with the United States.

“We are in a sort of a standstill. While Hezbollah supporters are celebrating the victory of Iran and especially the approval of Trump to the Iranian victory and patronage over Lebanon, its opponents are very strict with the notion that they don’t want to have Iranian sovereignty over Lebanon,” Levanoni highlighted.

The Islamic Republic asserted during negotiations that it expected a ceasefire on all fronts, including Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The agreement with Washington came as Beirut negotiated its own agreement with Israel through the United States, a course of action that had Hezbollah threatening civil war….

Israel, under pressure from Trump, and most reluctantly, agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon, which Hezbollah immediately broke, and as a consequence, the IDF has again been bombing terror targets in Lebanon. Perhaps the next ceasefire will hold, but that is up to Hezbollah. Israel cannot be expected not to respond to attacks by the terror group.

Even as Hezbollah sinks in support among the Lebanese Shi’a, because of the economic distress its attacks on Israel have provoked, the Americans now will come to the terror group’s rescue. The lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil sales means that tens of billions of dollars will almost immediately start flowing to Iran, and many more billions will be given to Iran when its assets are unfrozen. Iran has already promised that with these huge sums coming in, its first order of business will be to send a large infusion of cash to Hezbollah, which can be used to buy support among disaffected Shi’a. Trump’s deal will rescue Hezbollah just as its political base in Lebanon was dissolving. Quite a feat by the Trump administration, scoring this diplomatic own goal.