Peloni: Escalation leads to further escalation. Trump’s adversaries block every opportunity offered to them to end the war as Trump looks for a negotiations offramp. Gas prices are rising, and the coming US election is drawing ever closer, drawing conclusions of significant widening of the war all the more likely if not imminent. In fact, Washington has alerted Jerusalem of their intention to widen the war in the coming days while requesting Israel remain outside of the coming battle, but in this too Trump’s efforts to mollify his adversaries will be seen to be defeated by those same adversaries. As Sarah Stern notes, it’s time to buckle up once again.
For reasons of its own, Washington doesn’t want Israel involved in this latest bout with Iran.
Sarah N. Stern | July 20, 2026
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team pilot and commander performs a high-speed pass during the Oregon International Airshow Sept. 21, 2019 in McMinnville, OR. Photo by Air Force Senior Airman Alexander Cook – Defense.gov, Public Domain, Wikipedia.
So far, it seems like there is a dichotomy between the U.S. and the Israeli positions on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
For better or for worse, Washington is adhering to what is left of the Memorandum of Understanding. The United States wants to “mow the lawn” and open the Strait of Hormuz. Israel, however, believes that the Islamic Republic and all its terror proxies have to be eradicated for it to survive.
At one point, it will get down to either the Islamic Republic survives or Israel does. It will become a zero-sum game.
Following the death of two U.S. servicemen in Jordan and one in Iraq in the past few days, the United States is striking back hard. The fatalities bring the total number of American military deaths since the conflict with Iran began on Feb. 28 to 17. It only stiffens American resolve, with more warplanes being rushed into the area.
As long as Iran chooses to escalate, the United States cannot de-escalate. The MoU was an off-ramp for the Islamic Republic, though it seems that its leaders have decided not to take it. The Iranians have attacked shipping going through the Strait of Hormuz, fired on ships not adhering to Iranian directions and launched missiles on Gulf States.
How can one negotiate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a controlling entity adamant that Western civilization must be wiped off the map? Its military members, who resent Western freedoms, far prefer Shi’ite hegemony.
Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, no government has had the resolve to stand up to the mullahs in charge, despite massive presidential threats. As Iranian scientists work at building nuclear weapons—ultimately to be unleashed against Israel, other regional actors and the West, America has no choice but to fight back.
As far as Lebanon goes, Israel and Beirut signed a 14-point, U.S.-brokered framework agreement in Washington on June 26. The deal aims to end hostilities and establish a phased Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon, although the Iranian-controlled proxy Hezbollah has categorically rejected the agreement.
Hezbollah has always acted as a “state within a state.” The Lebanese Armed Forces are infinitely weaker than the terror group, which gets its money and its military might from Iran.
At the same time, Hamas, which now controls 40% of Gaza, has not agreed to disarm. The United Nations has now confirmed that Hamas is controlling food and aid distribution, and projecting power in the areas of Gaza that the terrorist organization controls.
The Houthis have launched retaliatory attacks against the Saudis. The IRGC has launched attacks against Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. The entire Middle East seems to be blowing up.
Yet the United States, for reasons of its own, does not want Israel involved in this current round of escalation. But if Jerusalem finds itself in Tehran’s crosshairs again, Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed that the Jewish state would respond “powerfully” against any attack by Iran.
Fasten your seat belts and expect some major bumps in the road ahead.
Sarah N. Stern is the founder and president of the Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET), a think tank that specializes in the Middle East. She is the author of Saudi Arabia and the Global Terrorist Network (2011).
Iran has just been incentivized to attack Israel!
No matter what Israel does it will be lustily accused of “genocide,” so it may as well do what must be done to preserve itself, and simply shrug off these accusations.