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Highlights
– Avivi explains that Iran and its proxies could attempt to weaken Netanyahu’s government by way of an attack on Israel, by way of Hezbollah or Hamas operations, or by way of attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.
– Avivi warns that Israel would respond with a major military operation if Palestinian Authority security forces attack Israeli civilians or soldiers. The consequence of this would be for the IDF to take control of Palestinian cities and dismantle the Authority’s capabilities, rather than conduct limited counterterrorism raids.
Avivi calls for the next government to focus greater attention toward domestic threats, including illegal weapons in Israeli Arab communities and the possibility of coordinated unrest or attacks alongside a confrontation in Judea & Samaria, while acknowledging that such scenarios are not inevitable.
– Avivi rejects claims that Israeli intelligence issued a specific warning before October 7. He notes that the military’s failure to increase readiness and respond adequately to intelligence indicators demonstrates that senior security officials themselves did not act as though war was imminent. He also warns that general awareness that war might be possible should be distinguished from the claim that a specific intelligence warning identifying that a specific threat of attack actually existed.
– Acknowledging that the government bears responsibility for longer-term decisions affecting military preparedness, ammunition production, and force levels, , Avivi challenges that political debate should include a focus on how Israel can achieve its military objectives, pursue regional normalization, and strengthen its economy.
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