PELONI: The necessity for Israel to ignore stated, presumed or even sincere intentions by its neighbors portrays the reality which exists in the Middle East dividing survival from defeat. As Netanyahu explained in his recent speech on the new National Strategy:
“If you want to survive, prepare for war. If you want to prevent war, prepare for war. If you want to prevent your enemies from striking you, strike them as necessary.”
by Pierre Rehov • Gatestone Institute • October 18, 2026 at 5:00 am
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- Al-Sharaa, it appears, is directing most of the state’s resources, foreign aid included, toward a large standing army and new weapons systems, while concealing the scale of the effort.
- Western governments and al-Sharaa do not attach the same meaning to the word “stability.”
- Middle Eastern alignments rarely outlive the enemy that produced them… Iran and its militias spent years fighting the insurgency that carried him to power. None of that says what a stronger Syrian state will do in ten years.
- In September 2025, al-Sharaa told reporters that a security deal with Israel, modeled on the 1974 disengagement agreement, was a “necessity.”
- A year after he declared this supposed “necessity,” al-Sharaa announced at the UN that the Golan Heights “will remain Syrian” – possibly so that Syrians will once again be able to shoot down at Israeli farmers on the plain below. Al-Sharaa added the complaint that “Israel is launching attacks against Syria. There have been 500 air strikes, more than 1,200 incursions, and 300 detentions. This is at odds with the orientation we’re seeing at global level.”
- Al-Sharaa, however, forgot to mention why. Ever since al-Sharaa overthrew the Assad regime, Christians, Druze, Alawites and other minorities have been victims of attacks that are reportedly “genocidal” – all while al-Sharaa’s plan for the radical Islamization of Syria surges ahead.
- The Trump administration’s removal of Syria from the list of state sponsors of terrorism seems to have been based on wishes rather than any kind of facts on the ground. Perhaps the administration still hopes — although, after its run-in with Iran, it really should have learned better — that rewarding good behavior before it takes place will somehow magically cause it to spring into being simply does not work. Gifts in good faith, especially to supposedly former terrorists, can simply get pocketed in expectation of the next ones.
- At this point, al-Sharaa’s demand [that Golan Heights “will remain Syrian”] is tantamount to expecting the United States to return its southwest to Mexico.
- Israel, evidently motivated by survival, treats its northern frontier as a question of capabilities rather than of declared intentions….
- The wager is that investment and honors will pull al-Sharaa toward moderation. It may pay off, but its beneficiary, al-Sharaa, is using part of the proceeds to build an armed power of his own.
- Israeli security sources concede that a chance to lock in border arrangements was missed when al-Sharaa was weak and newly installed, and now assess that a confrontation is a matter of time.
- A channel to Damascus has bought Washington influence that isolation never could, but it should not buy amnesia: al-Sharaa’s past is documented, his diplomacy is real, and the army now taking shape belongs to the same man.
- Whether Ahmed al-Sharaa has changed since the world knew him as al-Jolani will occupy biographers. Israel’s planners have stopped asking. They are counting his brigades.
Ahmed al-Sharaa inherited a country in ruins. War halved the size of Syria’s economy and left nine people out of ten below the poverty line. According to serious Israeli sources, the priority in Damascus has little to do with reconstruction.
Al-Sharaa, it appears, is directing most of the state’s resources, foreign aid included, toward a large standing army and new weapons systems, while concealing the scale of the effort. His forces are not yet rated as capable, but they have held brigade-level exercises, are being organized into brigades with divisions to follow, and are seeking air defenses able to restrict the Israeli Air Force. This is the army Israel gutted in December 2024, when 480 strikes in two days destroyed an estimated 80 percent of Assad’s strategic arsenal. It is being rebuilt with money meant to rebuild the country.
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