ANALYSIS: Turkey now technically at war with Russia and Syria

Turkish troops shell Syrian army positions while Russian air force bombs Turkish positions in Idlib, Syria.

By Yochanan Visser, INN
Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Recep Tayyip ErdoganA week after Israel National News reported that Turkey was on a crash course with Russia over Syria the parties are now at war technically speaking.

This happened after talks between a Turkish delegation and the Kremlin in Moscow about the worsening crisis in northeast Syria and the imminent threat of a new Turkish invasion in Syria over the Idlib Province, which is home to a range of Sunni Islamist groups supported by Turkey, broke-down.

The Turkey-backed Islamist militias in Idlib are on the verge of defeat after the Iranian-Russian-backed pro-Assad coalition rapidly advanced in the last rebel stronghold and even surrounded Turkish observation posts which were set up to monitor a 2018 de-escalation agreement between Russia and Turkey that failed miserably.

After the new talks between Russia and Turkey broke down Turkish autocratic leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to launch a new incursion into Syria, a promise he kept this time around.

“If the countries that we are in negotiations with do not do what needs to be done in Idlib, then we will do it ourselves. For the time being, we do not see the result that we want from these talks. We are fully prepared for our own operation in Idlib, it’s only a matter of time we can start at any moment. This is a vital operation for us,” Erdogan said on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Turkish troops with heavy weapons entered northern Idlib as Turkish artillery heavily shelled Syrian army positions while the Russian air force bombed Turkish positions in the same region.

Within a few hours fifty Syrian soldiers or members of Iranian-backed Shiite militias had been killed while Turkey lost only two soldiers. The Turks and their Islamist allies also destroyed five tanks and four armored vehicles belonging to the pro-Assad troops.

The fighting again drove Syrians from their homes and roughly 900.000 people are now camping out in the region along the Turkish border in freezing cold weather because Turkey – that has already absorbed more than 3.7 million Syrian refugees – closed down all border crossings in the region.

The Turks and their Syrian allies stormed the town of Nairab, tried to force the pro-Assad coalition to abandon their control over the important M4 highway and attempted to end the siege of five Turkish observation posts in northeast Idlib.

Turkey has now 7.000 soldiers on the ground in Syria who are in the possession of 2.000 armored vehicles and 70 tanks.

The Russians only have military advisers, warplanes and anti-aircraft batteries such as the S-300 and S-400 systems at their disposal but could quickly deploy soldiers to Idlib if needed.

Chances that this will happen are low, however. Moscow could team up with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which until now were in the orbit of the US military.

Semyon Baghdasarov, the director of the Center for the Middle East and Central Asia, told the state-controlled Russian paper Pravda he expects that Russia will demand that Assad closes a deal with the Kurdish YPG militia.

Baghdasarov also advises Russian President Vladimir Putin to start supporting the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey and to increase support for Kurdish Marxist and Leninist groups.

The Russian Middle East expert even advises the pro-Assad coalition to carry out a similar incursion in Turkey in response to Erdogan’s aggression.

For the Syrian Kurds this could be a win-win situation after the US army effectively abandoned the SDF and is only patrolling in some areas along the Turkish border while safeguarding the oilfields in eastern Syria so that the SDF won’t be deprived of the income of oil exports.

Now that Assad needs help against the Turks, who have a far better and larger army than the Syrian dictator has, a deal with the Kurds about recognizing some form of autonomy in the Rojava cantons would scuttle Erdogan’s plan to end any form of Kurdish autonomy along the Turkish border.

Erdogan is already in a difficult position after a series of miscalculations that cost him the sympathy of a large number of Sunni Islamist Syrian rebels who are now doing the Turkish strong bidding in the Libyan war where Turkey is also meddling.

The decision to ship these rebels to Libya where they are fighting on the side of the UN recognized government against the Libya National Army of Khalifa Haftar, who is supported by Russia and uses Russian mercenaries of the Kremlin-linked Wagner company, is now negatively influencing the rebels’ fighting capabilities at home in Idlib.

Erdogan has now turned to US President Donald J. Trump with whom he spoke on the telephone on Wednesday.

The hotheaded Turkish strongman reportedly asked Trump for the delivery of the Patriot anti-missile system now that his relations with Russia are rapidly deteriorating, according to Bloomberg.

Turkey’s recent overtures to Moscow resulted in the sale of the Russian S-400 missile and anti-aircraft shield but they haven’t become operable yet.

In a statement the Turkish Foreign Ministry later denied that Erdogan had requested the delivery of the Patriot system apparently to save his face now that he has isolated Turkey even more.

Relations between Turkey and Russia were already cooling down before Erdogan ordered the new incursion in Syria.

Anti-Russian rhetoric in the state-controlled Turkish media is increasing while Russia recently re-imposed a ban on the import of agricultural products from Turkey.<
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February 21, 2020 | 8 Comments »

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8 Comments / 8 Comments

  1. When both sides in a conflict are enemies of the U.S., the right response is to avoid helping either of them. Instead, Trump and Pompeo have decided to help one of these “frenemies,” Turkey, against Russia, Syria and Iran. It won’t work. These four “frenemies” will overcome or at least paper over their differences, leaving the Kurds, the Sunni Syrian Arabs, and the U.S. as big losers. Also the West Europeans, as millions of Sunni Arab refugees head toward the EU countries and Britain.

    During the Iran-Contra scandal of 1985-86, the U.S. sold weapons to both Iraq and Iran during their war with each other. I think we are still suffering the aftereffects of that stupid and wrong decision. The long-term result was to strengthen Iran.

  2. Turkey is losing the battle in NW Syria. It is afraid to put its air force to use because of the Russian’s. Up to about a million more refugees are likely to cross into Turkey as the ethnic cleansing is continuing in Syria.

    The Kurds are now subservient to the Syrians and Russians. The US abandoned this ally. Looks great if one is an isolationist and has no loyalty to allies plus does not care about the Iranians and their allies power expansion. Then isolationists could never see the whole picture.

    Clear Russian and Syrian victory. Who is the other ally of Syria their name is Iran which includes their Hezbollah ally. So this turn of events does neither the USA nor Israel any good. Erodgan got played by Putin when Putin told him that he would maintain a ceasefire in NW Syria. He just waited until the conditions were ripe. This was clearly foreseeable when the US pulled out (“regrouped”).

    Part of the conditions being ripe was the US “regrouping” and abandonment of the Kurds. This created an opportunity for the Russians and Syrians to capture NW Syria from the “Rebels” and their Turkish allies.

    Erodgan is now trying to find a way to save face in a meeting with Putin. Putin is calling his bluff on full scale conflict in the area.

  3. It has been pointed out elsewhere, that Trump’s much criticised Syrian redeployment strategy was sheer genius because it attained precisely this result.

  4. @ Michael S:
    Well, considering what a miserable fiasco Afghanistan, the longest war in U.S. history with no end in sight, has been, I’m impelled to ask, how exactly have the Turks helped us? Frankly, this is the first I am reading that they have.

  5. @ Michael S:

    So we’re talking again hey..? O.K. ..Just keep it clean…

    You lay this situation out nicely, I’d bet that Erdogan won’t get any NATO help, and is in a tight fix in this “technical” embrogio… Although….. the Turks have always shown themselves, to be very good fighters, especially when entrenched. I’m not so sure of their field commanders and planning capabilities, since Erdogan made almost a clean sweep of the top brass. He has such self-confidence, he may promote himself to be “His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Alhaji Doctor Erdogan, etc…. like Idi Amin,.

  6. @ Edgar G.:

    Yes, Edgar — only technical. The Turks are also technically US allies, as was Argentina in the Falklands War. During that conflict, we opted to support the Brits, who were closer allies. This time around, the Turks are asking for help against the Russians, who are unquestionably NOT our allies.

    TECHNICALLY, NATO only obligates us to help allies at war in Europe and America. This facet of the treaty allowed the Brits to wriggle out of helping us in Vietnam, when President LBJ asked them to help. In Afghanistan, however, the Turks helps us in what was billed as a NATO operation. This is a ticklish situation, not at all black-and-white.

    PS. Ted, so far so good. If this post sends, it looks like you’ve fixed the login problem. Thank you very, very much.

  7. The understatement of today…fresh from the War Front…

    “Turkey Now Technically At War With Russia And Syria”……..they re only bombing and slaughtering one another’s troops, but not REALLY At War…….only technically.