Can Obama’s Israel visit restart the peace process?

By Pinhas Inbari, WORLD JEWISH CONGRESS

President Barak Obama is expected to visit Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan in March. While Washington announced that he would not bring a peace plan to the area, the timing and the itinerary suggest that peace negotiations with the Palestinians will be high on the president’s agenda, in addition to other pressing issues like Iran and Syria.

Obama’s move is reminiscent of the beginning of his first term, when the newly elected president chose Mahmoud Abbas as the first world leader to telephone and declared the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian problem to be at the top of his foreign policy agenda. Asian powers like Japan and South Korea, who anticipated that this time around America would shift its priorities to the Far East, may be in for a disappointment.

But what do Palestinians expect from renewed peace talks? According to Fatah sources in Ramallah, two weeks ago President Abbas told senior Fatah members of the information he exchanged with France and Britain.

Abbas claimed that at this time the European countries are determined to lead the peace process to a successful end. They will lay out parameters for a solution based on several EU resolutions on the subject, set a six-month-long timetable for negotiations and, in case of failure, hand over the issue to the UN Security Council that will decide who is to blame. More than likely, the blame would fall on Israel due to its reservations regarding the European resolutions. Therefore, Fatah leaders are convinced they are closer than ever to imposing a solution on Israel.

Abbas also told Fatah members that the Europeans proposed holding direct negotiations in Jordan, not Egypt, where internal problems and a built-in preference for Hamas are the order of the day. In addition, Jordan would assume responsibility for security arrangements along the Jordan River in order to avoid a security vacuum akin to the one created by the collapse of the Philadelphi route after Israel disengaged from Gaza.

Jordan would patrol the border on its side, with the entrance to St. John’s baptismal holy site to be set up on the Jordanian instead of the Israeli side due to IDF presence there.

Israel is expected to have an economic presence along the Jordan River, including joint ventures with the Palestinians. The Europeans anticipate that the transformation of the area into an economic zone would foster security and encourage the Palestinians to stay away from violence. Israel would not be expected to recognize the Palestinian state de jure, however, it will do so de facto by not objecting to statehood markers like Palestinian passports, stamps, etc.

Diplomatic sources in Israel confirmed that Europe would be in favor of imposing a solution on Israel. They were, however, told by the United States that while America supports the European initiative, it would block any move in the Security Council aimed at smearing Israel’s name and singling it out as the guilty party.

Before the Palestinians pursue the European strategy for peace talks, they must tackle their own growing internal problems. Fatah’s senior membership remains quite skeptical of Abbas’ European option as it has lost faith in the feasibility of the two-state solution. Some Fatah members are actually advocating the abandonment of the strategy in favor of a single state with Israel.

Obama visiting the Western Wall in 2008In addition, Abbas faces a growing unrest on the Palestinian street. Many Palestinians have embarked on an ‘Electricity Intifada’, whereby they refuse to pay their electricity bills.

To make matters worse, the military wing of Fatah is rebelling by staging military parades in refugee camps, which can quickly turn into actual violence.

Until the breakout of the Arab Spring there was a widespread conviction among world leaders that a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians would be the cornerstone of regional stability. President Obama’s visit will reveal whether this conviction prevails, or whether the widespread instability across the region has created a new list of priorities for world leadership.

February 11, 2013 | 18 Comments »

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18 Comments / 18 Comments

  1. @ Canadian Otter:
    How right you are Otter. There is no peace proces and never has been. The “peace” process is nothing more than the arabs attempting to stall until they get the upper with and more concessions from Israel.

  2. Shy Guy Said:

    Can Obama’s Israel visit restart the peace process?
    Can the Frankenstein monster be brought back to life?!

    No – Yair Shamir has already said as much today. Why beat a dead horse? The two-state solution is dead and the Arabs are not interested in peace with Israel. Obama’s charms will be wasted upon them. All the diplomats in the world can’t change this basic fact of Middle East life.

  3. There never was a peace process–but rather the process of destroying Israel; Barack Obama’s visit will not be in Israel’s best interest–it will stir up more evil against Israel and embolden the Muslim Arab dogs and their supporters!

  4. @ Laura:

    Islam and its doctrine of jihad is responsible for regional and global instability for that matter, period, end of story.

    Well written Miss Laura!

  5. I’m also sick to death of Israel being held responsible for regional instability. Islam and its doctrine of jihad is responsible for regional and global instability for that matter, period, end of story.

  6. Those who are sleepwalking into another partition – whichever name the govt wants to give it – don’t seem to look at the big picture. Abbas and the king of Jordan are here today, gone tomorrow. Who will rule the PA & Jordan in the future? Just look at the ideological trend and the demographics. And look at regional powers like Iran, pushing their way around. They, and the “resistance”, as Hillary calls Hamas & friends, are the ones Israelis will have to deal with. ~~~~~ There won’t be a statelet or a federation or economic cooperation. There will be violence, corruption and chaos. A non-self-sustaining entity will resort to kidnappings and other serious crime to finance itself and continue its war against the Jews. ~~~~~ But your politicians don’t want you to think about that. They’re devious. The present political status quo in the PA & Jordan is about to end, hence the urgency by the USA and your govt to get some kind of “temporary” arrangement in place while Israelis are still in a state of confusion. ~~~~~ So you don’t like those Yesha Arabs? You don’t like to police them? You don’t like dealing with them? Fine. The alternative is the Gaza model, worse by many orders of magnitude. Because that’s what Israelis will get once they surrender control over the area. So say goodbye to the relative safety you’ve enjoyed. ~~~ Israelis, you’re being swindled! Again! By your own govt that doesn’t bother to consult with you before gifting your land to terrorists.

  7. Europeans proposed holding direct negotiations in Jordan, not Egypt, where internal problems and a built-in preference for Hamas are the order of the day. In addition, Jordan would assume responsibility for security arrangements along the Jordan River in order to avoid a security vacuum akin to the one created by the collapse of the Philadelphi route after Israel disengaged from Gaza.
    Israel is expected to have an economic presence along the Jordan River, including joint ventures with the Palestinians. The Europeans anticipate that the transformation of the area into an economic zone would foster security and encourage the Palestinians to stay away from violence. Israel would not be expected to recognize the Palestinian state de jure, however, it will do so de facto by not objecting to statehood markers like Palestinian passports, stamps, etc.

    This is what I have been suspecting for a while. I think BB has agreed to this, and that if this works there will be autonomy, a state or a confed. down the road. basically it is a freezing of the status quo in terms of land and the granting of autonomy subject to results. In this scenario confed will allow Israel to get more and Israel will continue to hold area C, possibly disengaging from part,s in phases or by area, to where it wants to be. No pal ref return to Israeli held territory, no formal link to gaza. How Jerusalem is handled is the question, perhaps the issue is hoped to dissipate over time in the context of a confed with Jordan, with Israel maintaining status quo. the “trust bulding measure” is allowing the pal to pretend to a state.

  8. Yidvocate Said:

    Enough of the hypocrisy and double standards! I’m sick to death of it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    i am with you yidvocate, and i am sure there is a LONG line of like minded people that declare ‘today we are ALL lt. col. shalom eisner’

  9. So the world is set to impose a “solution” on Israel – another final solution? Israel should announce its annexation of all of J&S during the Obama visit with a declaration that as many Jews as are permitted to live and buy homes in the 80 of the Mandate of Palestine that was exclusively given over to the Arabs of Palestine will henceforth be the same number of Arabs that will be permitted to live and buy homes in the Jewish state.

    Enough of the hypocrisy and double standards! I’m sick to death of it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. The PARTITION Process – not “Peace” Process.

    Peace has been the word picked by enemies of the Jews to swindle Israelis out of their land. They are still selling partition and the fake notion of “Peace” is still a marketing tool that has nothing to do with reality.

    The only reasons why Egypt is not officially abrogating the “peace” treaty with Israel (as it was trying to do right after the Muslim Brotherhood takeover) is that the country is broke, unstable and – most importantly – because Obama is showering them with free F16s, money, and other gifts.

    Egypt has been arming and preparing to wage all-out war with Israel all through these years of “peace”, with the eager assistance of the United States govt. How long would peace with the “Palestinians” (another fake concept) last? Hours – days at most – since they claim all of Israel as theirs.

    These days it’s only the Meddlers who mention the word peace. The Arabs (or “Palestinians”) do not even try to hide their hostile intentions. To them destroying Israel is only a matter of time, and a small Palestinian State a means to that end. They’ve been quite outspoken about that. And the Israeli government knows it!