by ALEXANDER G. MARKOVSKY, FAMILY SECURITY MATTERS
Crimea turned its clocks to Moscow time literally and figuratively. And in case you didn’t notice, if you plan to spend your vacation on Crimean beaches you must now get your visa from the Russian Embassy. As I ruefully predicted in my first post, “Crimea, Ukraine and the Agony of Impotence,” Crimea has joined Russia, and regardless of Western sanctions and condemnations there is no turning back for this historic clock. The White House agreed. In its recent statement, “If Russia does not take any steps to further violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, a diplomatic solution remains possible,” Washington abandoned its devotion to revisionist history and acknowledged that Crimea is no longer part of any diplomatic settlement.
With the first round of the Ukrainian chess game Obama vs. Putin complete, it is time to recapitulate the outcome and see who is paying the “costs for invading any part of Ukraine,” as President Obama warned about in February.
Putin got Crimea and he got to keep the $15 billion he offered Ukraine earlier for not joining the EU. Furthermore, he will be getting billions of dollars in back payments for gas and market prices for the future gas supply (thus far Ukraine has been getting gas at a subsidized price). There is no more lease payment to Ukraine for the Navy base in Sevastopol. The downside: Western sanctions, condemnations, and a few F-16’s flying along the Russian border as a demonstration of NATO resolve.
As Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Rogozin put it, “these sanctions are not worth a grain of sand of the Crimean land that returned to Russia.” He is right. If President Obama ever looked at the map, he would realize that the strategic importance of Crimea for Russia cannot be overstated. As far as NATO resolve is concerned, instead F-16’s NATO should organize a gay parade along the Russian border; that would make a deeper impression on Putin.
In the meantime Obama committed the US to borrow money from China to pay Ukraine, so that Ukraine can pay Russia for gas. Makes sense.
What about the EU? It has committed itself to support Ukraine. Ukraine will become a black hole for billions of Euros, with no end in sight. Once committed to adopt Ukraine, the EU will own it and will not be able to pull out, because if it does, Ukraine will disintegrate.
Round two began with a guessing game in Washington and European capitals. Speaking onFox News Sunday, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Mike Rogers, R-Mich., summarized the sentiment. “While an invasion of Ukraine is a concern,” Rogers said, “nobody really knows what [Putin’s] intentions are.” Is that why we’re spending billions of dollars on the CIA, NSA, and a bunch of other agencies, so we do not know? You can get it here for free.
Putin is not going to invade Ukraine. The reason is that the situation in Eastern Ukraine is not as clear as it was with Crimea. Although there is a strong movement toward independence from Kiev, joining Russia has its own problems even within the Russian population. The Russians living in Ukraine do not want their sons to be drafted into the Russian army and sent to fight in Chechnya. Hence, Putin will let the drama in Kiev play itself out. The impending collapse of civil authority and subsequent chaos and violence in Western Ukraine will inevitably drive Eastern Ukraine into Russian hands. Meanwhile, Putin allows President Obama to declare a tiny victory and MSNBC will say how skillfully the president protected Ukraine and avoided a conflict in Europe or some other nonsense that its viewers will enthusiastically endorse.
What is Putin’s next objective? The dissolution of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) or, short of that, keeping NATO away from the Russian borders. Putin sees NATO as the biggest military threat to his country. For those of us who are too young to remember or never learned it in school, or perhaps did but are now having a senior moment, NATO is a military alliance created in April 1949. The main purpose of NATO was to protect Europe from Soviet expansion. In response the Soviets formed the Warsaw Pact in 1955.
The two military camps threatened to destroy the world, and the standoff, which lasted for the next 34 years, was called Mutually Assured Destruction. With the demise of the Soviet Union, the Warsaw Pact disintegrated as well. If you are Putin, you would ask members of NATO, “Against whom are you maintaining this beautiful friendship?”
Furthermore, after the cessation of the Cold War, NATO and Moscow negotiated the terms of the German unification. In accordance with the agreement, NATO committed not to extend any further to the east. This promise was broken and the alliance has aggressively expanded eastward growing drastically from 16 member states in 1990 to 28 currently.
.jpg "NATO (2) Europe Map L")
The expansion of NATO toward the Russian borders may eventually lead to a conflict similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1961. Today, however, the United States does not enjoy nuclear preeminence and its economic strength is dwindling. The Crimea affair was a test of resolve on the part of the US and NATO allies in dealing with adversity. It has demonstrated that the West has no power to confront Russia and lacks the leadership to build a consensus. Convinced of the West’s impotence, Putin can proceed with his prime objective; the penalties are negligible, the rewards are huge.
NATO’s strength, a collective defense, is also its greatest weakness. If Putin is thinking of invading other countries, it would be one of members of NATO. NATO’s failure to defend its member effectively will make membership in NATO a liability. Backed by a growing arsenal of nuclear and conventional weapons, Putin will be in a position to assert Moscow’s right to impose a non-NATO membership doctrine on its neighbors.
Those members of NATO and the Ukrainians in Kiev will come to appreciate the wisdom of Henry Kissinger, who once observed, “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.” As Putin has learned, to be an enemy of America is no longer dangerous.
Alexander G. Markovsky is a Russian émigré. He holds degrees in economics and political science from the University of Marxism-Leninism and an MS in structural engineering from Moscow University. He resides in Houston, Texas, with his wife and daughter, where he owns a consulting company specializing in the management of large international projects. Mr. Markovsky is a contributor to FamilySecurityMatters.org, and his essays have appeared on RedState.com, WorldNetDaily, Family Security Matters, Ruthfullyyours and other websites. He can be contacted at alex.g.markovsky@gmail.comters.org/publications/detail/crimea-ukraine-and-the-agony-of-impotence-part-ii#ixzz2z4KmLhoU
Looks like vlad gets to keep Crimea and forced the west to remake Ukraine in his image.
…and the EU will make sure they do Vlads bidding.
Even though Vlad allowed the west this pathetic attempt to put a fig leaf on their humiliation the pontificating bumbling buffoon still rattles a sabre that has no blade. Vlad has demonstrated professional finesse in his handling of the issue in contrast to the den of ludicrous fools. Vlad conquered Crimea, bloodless, and has brought Ukraine and NATO to humility and acquiescence. They talk and his actions talk for him. when he talks all must listen.
Vlad preceded his actions with simple declarations of fact regarding the the protection of his russians and the illegitimacy of the Ukraine coup. these declarations were made to give a legal basis for his action. Then he took action and now everyone chooses their sides and accepts his fait accompli and his WILL.
Israel should treat the EU, UN and US in the same manner: declare the legal principles, take the action and then let the losers have their whining, like Kerry does now.
Putin must remember that the US assisted the Taliban in the expulsion of the Russians out of Afghanistan. This is a tit for a tat, isnt’it?
@ bernard ross:
Goedon G Chamg is a very credible analyst.
I look to see a military build up of Japan and their nuclearization as well. That will be a game changer. It will take Japan about ten years to become a major military power.
I see the same happening eventually with Germany. The world is heading to a multi polar regime where there is no dominant superpower only regional powers.
bernard ross Said:
Perhaps.
China on the Edge
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4269/china-on-the-edge
yamit82 Said:
Perhaps we are looking at the beginning of the “european spring” where the enemies of the Jews are all killing each other.
the Kansas jew killer tried to kill the Jews but instead killed 3 christians; same with the arabs who kill each other and the christians. The confounding and confusion of the enemies.
The russian invasion of eastern europe is good for Israel just as the arab spring was good. this will tie up those pressuring and persecuting Israel the most: Obama and the EU. They may become too busy to deal with israel. the NYT is already floating the trial balloon of “moving on” while leaving “suggestions” behind. the real point is the “moving on”. Vlad may have begun a paradigm shift in the global balance of power that has put nato, eu and us in a weak position where they are unable to display power or success. This aggression might be echoed by China who smells the fear and weakness. The focus of the US and EU will be to more serious matters which are existential dangers. The pals will become a nuisance to everyone including, the gulf arabs, whose main fear is Iran(unless the GCC takes a route of appeasement). The russians might even allow an attack on Iran while making noise and creating red lines. Why, because they have their own interests and an isolated Iran is good for russia who can control irans oil and make big money. The russians want to choke europes energy supplies.
If Israel is smart they will allow abbas to choke himself and implode and not enter any more talks. When EU and US interest fades israel should apply the jackboot on the pals and expel the PLO and PA as a starter. Vlad has set a new pace and I beleive he will add to his success in eastern ukraine which wil bring him more allies. ” the world favors a strong horse” according to OBL and Israel is a strong horse who has not recognized its own power and potential for expansion.
Ukraine is a real nation, originally stuck between the Russians and former Turkish Caliphate with a Khanate protectorate in Crimea.
Its greatest Hero is Bohdan Khmelnytsky, a man most Jews would destest for the greatest anti-Semite between the Inquisition and Hitler.
However lost in the mix is that Bohdan Khmelnytsky killed more Poles than Jews. He was just anti-non-Ukrainians.
However, the Ukrainians do indeed exist. You may have good reason to hate them, but their existence is real.
History of Bohdan Khmelnytsky Rebellion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JLl607Mpyo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JLl607Mpyo
Very interesting.
He will go into the real history of the sad events. It is not black and white.
@ yamit82:
where do you learn all this, would to visit the British Museum with you, love. Love in English for Sugar. I learned that from a lady from Bristol.
Metaphysical Doubts Concerning the Existence of Modern Ukraine, a 1918 Creation of the German General Staff
Ukraine a Potemkin Nation?
It was the Empress Catherine the Great who annexed the Crimea to the Russian Empire in 1783. Catherine’s lover Prince Potemkin (pronounced Potyomkin) was urging the Empress to undertake his so-called “Greek Project,” which amounted to the re-creation of the defunct Byzantine Empire under Russian auspices on territory conquered from the Ottomans. Catherine wanted to undertake this project in association with Joseph II, the new reforming Emperor of Austria. Catherine, Joseph, and Potemkin undertook a triumphant progress down the banks of the Dnieper River to the Crimea. Along the imperial route, legend has it that Viceroy Potemkin had set up his famous Potemkin villages, made up of one-dimensional props like a Hollywood set, and designed to give the Imperial travelers and their retinue of foreign ambassadors the impression that the territory had already been colonized and populated by Russian settlers.
Whatever the reality of the Potemkin villages, the fact that they were said to be located in Ukraine gives rise to the inevitable question: Is Ukraine a Potemkin nation, a superficial appearance without any strength or depth?
By 1795, after the final carving up of Poland, the current Ukraine remained divided among the Ottoman, Russian, and Austrian empires. The Austrian part was sometimes called Galicia, and included Lemberg/Lvov.
So where did modern Ukraine come from? The idea for constituting a modern state called Ukraine involves the historical work of Mykhailo Hrushevskyi, who attempted in the years before World War I to show the existence of a Ukrainian nation distinct from Poland and from Russia. But Hrushevskyi later proved willing to work under Soviet auspices, not insisting on an independent Ukraine. Until late in World War I, Ukraine existed primarily in the minds of romantic intellectuals who had read Hrushevskyi or the poet Taras Shevchenko. During the prewar phase, many supporters of Ukraine imagined their future as an autonomous part of the Austrian Empire, which was thought to be less oppressive than Russia or Germany
Ukraine Considered “Made in Germany,” a “German Invention”
Petliura and Pogroms, 1919
When the German war effort collapsed at the end of 1918, Skoropadsky’s dictatorship fell apart and was replaced by an oligarchy known as the Directorate, in which the dominant personality was Simon Petliura, known as a leading perpetrator of pogroms. Law and order rapidly broke down, and a series of massacres of the Jewish population began. At that time, Ukraine included about one third of the Jews in Europe. This brand of militant anti-Semitism is today one of the hallmarks of Ukrainian fascism. Read More
CuriousAmerican Said:
Don’t see any direct connection.
None of this would have happened if Obama had not shown weakness and loosened the sanctions on Iran.
It could be that one of the reasons that the Russian Federation will not invade Ukraine is because it is not necessary. The military advances of the current Ukraine regime are proving impotent. Over and over again, we hear of military advances being halted by organized civilians. This is a truly remarkable development. It reminds me of Serbian civilian resistance to KFOR in Kosovo which has proven enduring if not effective. And Kosovo is a constant reminder to the Russians, and the rest of us too, what NATO really represents militarily.
Also at the top of our minds is Bosnia and Herzegovina, divided comfortably into Serbs and Bosnians/Croatians. The future of this amalgam is constantly put to the test, but the situation is peaceful if not stable. There were briefly some anti-government riots in the Bosnian/Croatian Federation of B & H, but the Republika Srpska part was not involved and completely disinterested.
NATO is now an aimless bully, its expansion consists largely of neo-Nazi sympathetic states and Ukraine loomed as just one more. It’s reason for being, the USSR, is gone and it should have gone too, to be replaced by some new treaty based on new realities. Its ongoing existence suggest that the USSR wasn’t really what NATO was about, but was just a bigoted response to Russian advancement of any kind, even as empty subjects of a grotesque empire.
If Russia wants East Ukraine, we should let them have it, but they might not want it. Russian Ukraine might be better off as an autonomous region, which appears to be what activists in the region want.