Demilitarization depends on capitulation to the PA’s demands

By Ted Belman

Why is Israel participating in the ceasefire talks.She will be forced to concede more than she wants to and will not get what she wants. At lease if she boycotted the talks, she wouldn’t be conceding anything.

For all Bibi’s tough talk and spin, the reality is otherwise. Bibi pulled the IDF out of Gaza to meet a prime demand of Hamas before negotiations started. In a blink of an eye he sent a delegation to Cairo for ceasefire talks knowing what the Arabs were demanding. A tougher response would have been to say “call me when you are ready to negotiate demilitarization”. The truth of the matter is that Hamas will never agree to demilitarization. The fact that Bibi didn’t draw a line in the sand means that he is flexible on demilitarization.

JPOST published an analysis by Herb Keinon of the negotiations that lie ahead.

[..] And now those EU leaders will ask for payback from Israel for giving it the diplomatic space to wage the campaign, and the currency in which they will want to see payment will be “progress in the Mideast peace process.”

“You want our help demilitarizing Gaza, be more forthcoming toward Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank” will be the likely refrain. And this refrain will also be heard from Washington, where the Gaza crisis further strained the already less than ideal Obama-Netanyahu relationship.



But Netanyahu will not be overly eager to pay in this currency.

The gaps between Israel and the PA that emerged during the recently failed US-brokered talks remain, and – if anything – have only deepened.

Both the near-closing of Ben-Gurion Airport due to rocket fire from Gaza, as well as the tunnels that were burrowed into Israel (if that can be done from Gaza, then it will be argued it can also easily be done from a West Bank void of IDF troops), will stiffen Netanyahu’s security requirements – security requirements that the Palestinians were unwilling to accept even beforehand.

The US and Europe will want to see Netanyahu initiate a diplomatic process, but his political space will be limited as those on his right – Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman and Economy Minister Naftali Bennett – are unlikely to give him any room for flexibility.

Furthermore, the country – which just underwent the trauma of daily funerals for soldiers and constantly running to the bomb shelters – will be in no mood to make concessions to the Palestinian Authority, especially amid an uptick in Palestinian terrorism from Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Netanyahu will be walking a difficult tightrope: wanting to give something to the international community to enlist its support in demilitarizing Gaza, but not willing or able to repay the international community in the currency it wants.

And remember Obama and Kerry have said demilitarization will come with a peace agreement and will be part of it.

August 6, 2014 | 20 Comments »

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20 Comments / 20 Comments

  1. the phoenix Said:

    Stop shopping!

    If I stopped shopping for a little thing like a twisted ankle [ the altitude makes on more susceptible to spending] it would disappoint Yamit82.

  2. honeybee Said:

    I was in Breckenridge,Co shopping at 8,000 ft. and a twisted ankle.

    Ouch!
    Rx:
    1. Stop shopping!
    2. Get a little bell to ring TX to: bring this, do that , stop doing this, continue doing that etc..

  3. @ honeybee:

    Thought of you this morning, saw my Dow and her twins.

    🙂
    Likewise.
    I was wondering where you might be (the board was vewy vewy quiet…)

  4. @ bernard ross:

    From my perspective it appears that the facts on the ground are being orchestrated by foreign elements and that those elements are able to wield a power over successive GOI’s that appears to border on blackmail and extortion.

    CFR?

  5. @ bernard ross:

    I have determined that my desire for the annexation of all Israel and the transfer of hostile populations is not what Israelis want. In fact, I do not even believe that most Israelis want area C.

    I agree with you.
    WITH SADNESS.
    Xlucid and I posted elswhere how this can affect the thinking process of a Jew not living in Israel…
    It just seems that any attempt for Israel to become Jewish (imagine! What a concept…) is being crushed with an iron fist by the Jewish powers that be!!! (Just yesterday, a youth was arrested for DANCING near the Temple Mount!!!)
    It also seems that the only one that “talks the talk” is feiglin BUT for all intents and purposes… We have YET to see him walk the walk.
    I guess I am in denial as I REFUSE to believe that indeed israel is as you have posted above…
    And after splashing some more cold water on my face, I try to analyze the facts with a cool head (not easy… 🙂 ) and realize that indeed:

    *. Rabbi kahane did NOT have the vast majority of the people behind him
    *. There has not been a significant movement to carry his message since his murder (the powers that be saw to it that it will not happen?..)
    *. Feiglin whose message is somewhat similar, CHOSE to remain in the Likud vs attempt the change on its own

    I am sure that there must be a significant number that wish to see a Jewish state where the Jews are walking proud and tall because they literally OWN the place , and the Arab population KNOWS ITS PLACE.
    but we don’t see that… yet(?).

  6. the phoenix Said:

    Boiling a frog?

    I expect that the perspective of the “elite” leaderships is the reverse: turning down the heat on the boiling frog. They always know best.

    In watching this drama up closer over the last 10 plus years I have determined that my desire for the annexation of all Israel and the transfer of hostile populations is not what Israelis want. In fact, I do not even believe that most Israelis want area C. This demonstrates a perspective that even the empty lands of C are thought by Israelis as legitimately belonging to the pals.

    If my conclusions are correct then it would not be surprising to expect that all most Israelis want is whats inside the green line and security. I believe they see security as intertwined with convincing the arabs not to kill them and until that time arrives to hunker down and hold the fort with defensive measures only.

    Furthermore, under such a scenario the TSS becomes completely governed by “security” and where security can be bought by appeasement that path is likely to be followed by Israel until it is clear that it cannot be bought by appeasement. This lesson appears to repeat itself each generation, therefore, the cycle of appeasement and mini wars continues but always perceived to be determined by the arabs with the Jews having no control of outcome. Hence, the prospect of an overall gulf arab peace appears to have become the main MO of the GOI and we should look at this influence in Israeli decision making as a tool to explain GOI behavior, which appears odd without this explanation.

  7. I believe there is one fact upon which we can all rely: we are not being told by the GOI the most important facts which explain their apparently consistent irrational behavior. Obviously there are facts unknown that govern their decisions. In each step we are shown a great deal of disagreement between ministers and BB/Livni but in the end it is always the BB/Livni perspective which prevails.

    From my perspective it appears that the facts on the ground are being orchestrated by foreign elements and that those elements are able to wield a power over successive GOI’s that appears to border on blackmail and extortion. The question becomes whether the extortion is based on personal blackmail threats to Israeli leaders or whether the threats are enumerated agaist the nation of Israel. If it is the nation of Israel then it is High time the GOI’s reveal these threats to the public.

    Furthermore, it appears to me that the damage done by successive GOI’S in their refusal to defend the legal and legitimated jewish rights of settlement in YS have now led to the discrediting and delegitimization of any right of Jews in any part of Israel. The damage is permanent, the memory of the truth has been lost due to the govs of Israel in underestimating the threat resulting form their negligence and incompetence. No one remembers Jewish rights and those in tel aviv will in the future be seen to be Jewish thieves from europe.

    Those who poo pooed the importance of lawfare, diplomacy and hasbara should now see what ignoring those have brought to israel: the military is unable to bring results because of the deficits of diplomacy, hasbara and lawfare and Jews throughout the world are experiencing anti semitism as a result of false information that was allowed to grow and fester. Most of those condemning Israel are clueless as to facts.

  8. @ bernard ross:

    The 10 year period is the time it will take for leadership of all involved to accommodate their constituencies to new realities.

    Boiling a frog?
    🙁

  9. Israel Repairs Power Grids for Gaza

    The IEC crew was from the Be’er Sheva district and were following instructions from political leaders and had been authorized by the IDF in full coordination with the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories.

    http://www.algemeiner.com/2014/08/06/israel-repairs-power-grids-for-gaza/

    this sums it up;
    we can see the priorities of the GOI,

    For all Bibi’s tough talk and spin, the reality is otherwise. Bibi pulled the IDF out of Gaza to meet a prime demand of Hamas before negotiations started. In a blink of an eye he sent a delegation to Cairo

    When you are already aware of the outcome your next moves are ready “in the blink of an eye..”

    so far, this entire drama appears to be proceeding as I originally predicted: gaza is being given to PA in order to create a unity gov which “satisfies” the original PA Israel agreements so as to proceed to the next phase of the “peace” that will unfold not as a deal overtly agreed but as facts on the ground over a 10 year period. The 10 year period is the time it will take for leadership of all involved to accommodate their constituencies to new realities.

  10. I already posted on another thread report from the Palis that BB has already agreed to 4 of the 7 most important demands of Hamas. Extended Fishing limits, end to embargo, freeing prisoners and allowing the PA to monitor Border crossing with Egypt.

    BB is trying to place the PA in Gaza actively through this agreement. Part of his overall intention of creating a Palis State.

    Remember BB is in favor of 2 States.

    Remember This war was forced on Hamas by Iran as a condition for keeping Hamas in Power because the Saudis are blocking Qatar from intervening and all Hamas has left is Iran for funds, arms and more advanced technology.

    BB may not have wanted this conflict but as they say never let a good opportunity go to waste so he is using it to advance his long held desire to create a Palis State and maybe get a Nobel. BB the politician is trying to become a statesman whose popularity crosses party lines. He know enjoys 63%.

  11. NormanF Said:

    @ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
    Netanyahu already ditched his vow to not to negotiate with Hamas. They see he is patently insincere. All they have to do is sit tight and wait for the US to deliver Israel to them.

    Perhaps, but I do not see Netanyahu rushing to give Hamas anything. Besides, it is much too soon. Sure, Kerry and Obama, such clowns, can be expected to do what we know they have done, represent the interests of Turkey and Qatar.
    Netanyahu was most certainly strong armed to pull the plug on The Gaza Operation. He probably received assurances which although not great, prevent a catastrophic rift in Israel’s relations with The West.
    Obama would like nothing more than to humiliate Netanyahu, while using CIA and Europe to undermine him in every imaginable way paving the way for hopefully a resurgence of Labor/Meretz/Assorted Other Dreck to mount a formidable challenge to centrist rule.

  12. @ SHmuel HaLevi 2:

    Netanyahu already ditched his vow to not to negotiate with Hamas. They see he is patently insincere. All they have to do is sit tight and wait for the US to deliver Israel to them.

  13. Why would Hamas capitulate now? They are still viable.
    Meanwhile at the farm, we are left holding the hat and begging for what will be minimal exit cookies.
    It will take only a few days to know… what we already know….

  14. Having refused to topple Hamas, ironically enough, Netanyahu doesn’t have the flexibility to agree to a PLO state. The political price is simply too high. And having failed to grant the Israeli Right its wish list, Netanyahu is in no position to give the Israeli Left and Obama theirs.