Does Israel want Assad to fall?

13 Comments / 13 Comments

1. Eric R. Said:

   I tell you what – You can… when you find out
   I’d just prefer

   The world would be a better place.

   you, you , you – you are just not listening.

   You don’t give your boots to that Sonderkommando you just don’t get that loaf of bread and you don’t survive.
   That high horse is gonna kill you.

2. The majority here favors doing something – there is just difference as to what to do.

   Assad is already arming Hezbollah with advanced weapons as a pay off for helping him – he may have already given or promised them CW. The UN or America can back one of the groups in return for handing over the CW and other WMD and other deals may be possible. Some groups can be played against the other – it should have been done a long time ago this is Obama’s failing – absolutely by doing nothing he empowered AIQ /JAN and other extremists and rescued the power of those groups who are more benign – and he still is doing that.
   The West can pick and choose an alliance in the endgame.

   “Visit beautiful Brooklyn before Brooklyn visits you.”

   (I think that was Frank Zappa)

3. Max Said:

   Yes blind – yaddaa yadda – all about YOU and how you feel.
   You can’t see beyond you – that is blind.
   You can’t see any way to make any opportunity in this.
   It’s not going to get better all by itself and the window of opportunity is limited.

   I tell you what – You can hold hands with the Nazis of Hezbollah, al-Qaeda and Hamas and sing Kumba-ya. Just don’t be surprised when you find out that it won’t save you from these Nazi scum.

   I’d just prefer they be obliterated off the face of the earth.

   The world would be a better place.

4. Eric R. Said:

   Blind hatred?

   Yes blind – yaddaa yadda – all about YOU and how you feel.
   You can’t see beyond you – that is blind.
   You can’t see any way to make any opportunity in this.
   It’s not going to get better all by itself and the window of opportunity is limited.

   Just charge the wire and get electrocuted- you have no survival capacity.

5. Max Said:

   Doing nothing is making a decision – there will be no extended stalemate. There are no ‘both sides” – there are many different players and the players on the one side Hezbollah-Russia-Iran are definitely the worst to be winners. The side to help is Israel’s and to do that the Wet must play cards in the only deck it can do which is the rebel side.
   Your blind hatred is a passivity and military blindness. You might as well club yourself to death with that kind of attitude. Hating so much that you refused to make compromise deals and alliances is as bad as the blind Jihadist hatred and considering Israel’s situation that kind of hate is suicidal – you are the Infidel version of a suicide bomber..

   Blind hatred? No. It is legitimate hatred against an evil enemy that cannot be redeemed, but only defeated. They have earned my hate, and yes, I see their war and their slaughtering each other as justice. There is no compromise with either side. On one side is Hezbollah. On the other is al-Qaeda.

   How can Israel choose either set of sub-human Nazi scum?

   Even in WW2, choosing between Hitler and Stalin was a much easier choice. This time, it is like choosing between Hitler and Hitler.

6. Russian military aid to Syria: Burning questions and answers
   What are the new missile systems Russia is supplying to the Assad regime and how will they affect the region? Anshel Pfeffer breaks it down.

   There were a number of reports in recent years regarding a possible delivery of S-300 batteries to both Syria and Iran, but the Russians responded to Israeli and American requests and froze the deal. Now they are speaking of “completing the deal” though they have yet to clarify when exactly they plan to ship the two batteries ordered to Syria. In 2011, Russia already supplied Syria with two coastal-defense batteries, including 72 Yakhont missiles; now it is talking about supplying an advanced radar, which would greatly improve their accuracy.

   Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, the former commander of the army’s Military Intelligence said over the weekend that the Israel Air Force can deal with the S-300. There have been reports in the foreign press that Israeli pilots have trained against S-300 systems used by allies such as Cyprus, Greece and Azerbaijan, and developed evasion tactics. Israel carried out at least three major strikes against Syria in recent years and succeeded in breaching Syria’s significant anti-aircraft defenses. If the S-300 is indeed added to these systems, it would make a future mission more difficult but not thwart it. (The possible supply of the S-300 to Iran would be more problematic as the IAF cannot send a large number of fighter and electronic-warfare planes to distant Iran as it can to neighboring Syria.)

   Senior Russian officials have said in recent days that they plan to complete the deal, which was signed in 2007 and suspended in 2010. It is unclear though where the batteries will come from since the company manufacturing the S-300 announced last year it is shutting down the assembly line. Russia could supply Syria with used batteries from its own armed forces.

   it isn’t entirely clear why Israel has made such a fuss about them in recent days or whether Benjamin Netanyahu’s rushed visit to President Vladimir Putin was justified, or even had much chance of success. (According to some reports, it was Putin who summoned Netanyahu to warn him over further strikes against Syria).

   It is highly likely that a lot of what we have been hearing over the last few days has been spin serving various agendas. Netanyahu, like many others in the Israeli government and defense establishment, is extremely worried that jihadist rebels will take over Syria and that they, or Assad’s allies Hezbollah, will obtain advanced and chemical weapons. Despite the massacre of Syrian citizens, some in Israel seem to prefer that the Assad regime hold on for as long as possible. The news of the missile supplies could strengthen Assad’s hand by underscoring the fact that he is still receiving significant Russian backing.

   11 Russian warships have converged in recent days in the eastern Mediterranean, not far from Syria’s shore. It is the Russian Navy’s largest maneuver in the Mediterranean since the fall of the Soviet Union more than two decades ago.

   The Russians have a clear interest in Assad’s survival. He is the last secular head of state in the Arab world who isn’t considered an ally of the U.S. administration or a supporter of radical Islamist movements that are also threatening Russia’s eastern provinces. Assad is the last recognizable agent of Russian influence in the Middle East, and despite his closeness to the Iranian-Shia axis over the past decade, his current dire situation puts him at Moscow’s mercy.

   The Russian Navy has a long-term lease for use of Syria’s Tartus port and is the only Russian military presence currently in the Mediterranean basin. Even if the regime in Damascus falls, an Alawite rump state would probably remain for a while along the coast, with Tartus at its heart. Both Assad and the Russians have a joint strategic interest in defending that bit of coast.

7. Eric R. Said:

   What “active” strategy are you advocating? Invading Syria?

   If assad is weakened and Syria falls apart then I would like to see Israel invade the Syrian golan and take a buffer zone using the pretext of breaches of truce, unifil withdrawals,jihadis in golan,protecting minority druse,preventing hezbullah infiltration,etc. etc. This would enable Israel to have influence over the fragmenting and reconstitution of “Syria”. A fragmented Syria with a strengthened Kurdish and druse populations would be better for israel. I understand that seizing buffer zones has already been discussed between Israel, Jordan, turkey and US. However, it would likely only be done in conjunction with the others at the right time.

8. The S-300 is considered to be one of the world’s most sophisticated and accurate air defense systems. It has the capability to identify, target and fire missiles at multiple airplanes simultaneously at a range of over 125 miles. For Israel that would mean any plane taking off from Israel’s northern air base in Ramat David, a situation that Israeli military officials would consider intolerable.

   In the past, joint U.S.-Israel diplomatic pressure on Moscow paid off and Russia suspended a similar deal to equip Iran with the S-300 missiles. As part of understandings that previously prevented completion of the sale, the Israeli government agreed to allow Israel Aerospace Industry (IAI) to sell and license a Russian company to manufacture its advanced Heron UAV. Israel also promised to refrain from selling sophisticated weapons to Georgia, Russia’s rival in the Caucasus. Summarizing this week’s Netanyahu-Putin meeting, Israeli sources tell The Tower, “It was a dialogue between two deaf people.”

   http://www.thetower.org/exclusive-netanyahu-putin-meeting-a-bust-as-russia-refuses-to-back-off-s-300-sale-to-syria/
   I think the greatest danger is the supply of arms and anti air systems from Russia to iran, Syria and Hezbullah. If this article is correct then Israel also considers this very important in assessments. Israels air superiority is a major component in her ability to weaken her enemies significantly in any future face off. I have no doubt that a strong Syria allied with Iran and Hezbullah is bad for Israel. this is already a proven factor. However, Israel has many factors to consider including type and timing of any involvement. It does not want to draw in russia and is treading carefully. Therefore, its involvement is characterized by the red line of proliferation to Hezbullah. I think it likely that Israel will only make moves which have a basis in this red line until Syria retaliates.
   I agree that both sides suck and are dangerous. However,:

   “Better the devil we know than the demons we can only imagine if Syria falls into chaos and the extremists from across the Arab world gain a foothold there,”

   I do not agree that the unknown is worse than the known. We have seen Syria, Libya, Egypt and Iraq and all of these nations are now militarily weaker, fragmented and/or in conflict. Better weak and fragmented than unified, strong, and russian supplied.

   Furthermore, it has been mooted that there was indirect coordination between Israels attacks and rebel attacks. The Chinese symbol for crisis includes opportunity. Hezbullah is spread thinly between Syria and Lebanon and a possibility exists to weaken or destroy Hezbullah. If Israels “self defense” attacks can weaken Hezbullah supply links and the sunnis in Lebanon and Syria attack Hezbullah then Israel gains. The russian is the fly in the ointment, I suspect that Israel wants to make a deal for their retraction to a less dangerous position and that so does Russia. It may be that a diplomatic solution is in the works. If Russia maintains its interests then perhaps they can make a deal. The S 300 in Syria may also cause a problem with any attack on Iran overflying Syria. Russia wants to maintain Assad and Israel wants to weaken Hezbullah and blowback from Iran attacks. Perhaps they will come to an agreement. If not then Israel will likely increase involvement against Assad. In past coalitions israel has been asked to stay out or keep a low profile so as to keep the arabs enrolled. In this case the GCC/Sunnis are the main protagonists and they need to keep the “arab street” enrolled. The Sunnis probably expected their jihadis to be more successful.

9. Eric R. Said:

   Both sides in this conflict are evil Nazis; there is no side worth helping.

   Wrong. And invasion is far from necessary.
   Doing nothing is making a decision – there will be no extended stalemate. There are no ‘both sides” – there are many different players and the players on the one side Hezbollah-Russia-Iran are definitely the worst to be winners. The side to help is Israel’s and to do that the Wet must play cards in the only deck it can do which is the rebel side.
   Your blind hatred is a passivity and military blindness. You might as well club yourself to death with that kind of attitude. Hating so much that you refused to make compromise deals and alliances is as bad as the blind Jihadist hatred and considering Israel’s situation that kind of hate is suicidal – you are the Infidel version of a suicide bomber..

10. Max Said:

    Eric R. Said:
    What Israel wants is a long, long civil war that leaves Syria decimated for decades.
    That is not going to happen. A passive hopeful strategy is disastrous. You might as well sit around and wait for Iran to nuke itself.

    What “active” strategy are you advocating? Invading Syria?

    Both sides in this conflict are evil Nazis; there is no side worth helping.

11. Eric R. Said:

    What Israel wants is a long, long civil war that leaves Syria decimated for decades.

    That is not going to happen. A passive hopeful strategy is disastrous. You might as well sit around and wait for Iran to nuke itself.

12. What Israel wants is a long, long civil war that leaves Syria decimated for decades.

13. Of course Amos is right, an Assad win means a solid front from Iran-Russia-Hezbollah and two hostile countries armed and strong bordering Israel. A rebel win looks to be a more controllable situation and even the West still has the possibility to influence how the vitors will be and either a weakened or destroyed Hezbollah – and the end of Russian and Russian weapons influence in the region.

    Also I think there will be no detente – one side will win or the other -it’s like a chess game that’s in the middle game now – the balance has to go one way or the other. So banking on a forever stalemate is strategy that will fail.