Arlene Kushner | August 3, 2026
Trump speaks while giving the 2026 State of the Nation. Screengrab via Youtube
It is quite a challenge.
By late last week it seemed apparent that Trump was headed for a major attack on Iran. But “seemed” is the operative word. The president had indicated that this attack was going to be bigger than any previous attack – the biggest since WWII. He was rip-roaring angry because Iran had launched an attack on a US base in Jordan – an attack that ultimately was not successful.
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What did take place last week was an American attack, with the Saudis participating, on Iranian-supported militia in Iraq; at least 20 members of the militia and two Iranian advisors were killed.
As to that major American attack on Iran, ultimately we had only words: “We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating,” the president declared, while resorting to profanities, as is his habit. Various sources indicated that there was a serious likelihood that the American attack would begin over this past weekend.
The IDF was on highest alert and there were various speculations regarding how involved in the attack Israel might be. Following the recent Trump-Netanyahu meeting, much was made of the fact that Trump was in charge and would decide if Israel would join hostilities.
While Iran had repeatedly attacked American bases and military equipment in various Gulf states, before aiming for Jordan, there has been no Iranian attack on Israel. This is in spite of the fact that American refueling planes as well as combat jets are being docked here, and Israeli Defense Minister Katz very recently alluded to the fact that US war planes have been taking off from Israel.
DM Israel Katz. Photo by Itzhak Harari / Knesset Archives, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikipedia
Iran is deterred, preferring not to unleash the fierce Israeli response that would follow an Iranian attack. But were we to be involved with the US in a major attack, it must be assumed that Iran would retaliate with force.
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Here in Israel there was resignation with regard to Trump’s presumed intention to attack: It must be done, let’s get it over with. No panic, but an increased level of anxiety and tension; personal plans were made but were understood to be tentative.
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But by Sunday, Trump was taking a different position: He had called off the threatened attack. Two different reasons for this abrupt about-face were offered up.
One was that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – mindful of the fact that his country would be in Iranian crosshairs were there a major war – had called the president and asked him to de-escalate the situation.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-904283
Mohammad bin Salman October 2019. Photo by Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Wikipedia
The second was that a new opportunity for negotiations had allegedly materialized.
Late Saturday night Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that Iran had requested that military action be held off, and he had agreed because “perimeters of a deal has (sic) been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat…Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL. The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE…”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117023461141824050
Elsewhere he indicated that negotiations would begin today (Monday) and that his ever-ready negotiators (Heaven help us), Witkoff and Kushner, were ready to participate.
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However…a spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry said that there were no plans to hold negotiations with the US, even though Trump had indicated they were scheduled to start. He stated that the only negotiations being held are with Oman, regarding a temporary arrangement for the Hormuz.
One might think that Iran would be pleased to get the US back into negotiations that provide them with a way to stall and continue building their capacity to fight. But they persist in behaving provocatively, provoking Trump’s ire.
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Today, Monday, Trump’s ire was again on full display in a new Truth Social post:
“Iranian Leadership is unbelievably duplicitous! They ask for a meeting, some would say ‘beg,’ talks begin, with more scheduled in the immediate future, and they say, openly and proudly, that they’re not having any discussions, that nothing is being talked about, and they’re only dealing with Oman…”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117032272228248086
There are numerous ways to read this situation.
Did the Iranians float hints about their willingness to negotiate in order motivate Trump to pull back on his threats to attack – hints that they are not acknowledging now?
Or did Trump, just possibly, state that the Iranians had agreed to negotiations in the hope that they might be pushed to the table? Could he have been expressing what he wanted to see happen rather than describing what had already happened – creating a “reality” that was to his liking? There is solid reason to believe his threats about a major attack might well have been designed precisely to push Iran in that direction.
There can be no doubt about the fact that Trump – in order to paint a picture that corresponds to what he wants people to believe – is capable of offering up as reality a situation that diverges from the facts.
Consider: As I read Trump’s Truth Social statement that “the country of Israel joins us in this commitment,” I was very dubious. The leaders of “the country of Israel” know that negotiations won’t work.
And sure enough, I then read that according to Channel 12, “Israeli officials found out that US President Donald Trump had decided to call off a major planned attack on Iran through his Truth Social post.”
Consider how difficult it would have been for Netanyahu to come out declaring that what Trump – his “friend” with whom he reportedly speaks several times a week – said about Israel’s position simply was not true. How much more difficult than if he had be given the opportunity to state his position before “negotiations” were announced by Trump.
PM Netanyahu statement following the signing of a framework between Israel and Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. Screengrab via Social Media.
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There are two matters that are clear:
Negotiations with Iran will never, not ever, secure the final results that are sought by the US. The Iranians will not surrender their capacity for nuclearization, and at present are not even predisposed to relinquishing all control over shipping lanes in the Hormuz. They will stall, they will lie, they will agree to certain conditions and then renege.
At the same time, Trump finds himself in a bind. Even as he threatens to initiate it, he does not want a full-scale war with Iran: he has his eye on the midterm elections in November, and the war would not play well in the US. And yet he cannot appear to be the loser in his challenge to Iran. That would not play well in the US either, in addition to which, given his egomaniacal personality, it is exceedingly important to him to always come out on top. He verbalized this at one point: “We just want to win.”
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Much floats in the air at this point. I will surely return to this issue, again, and again. As I write I have no clue as to the direction Trump will take following his anger at Iran.
Before closing I refer to an article by Iranian-born Erfan Fard, a counterterrorism analyst, Middle East researcher, and author who specializes in Iranian security structures and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It was apparently written before Trump’s announcement with regard to reverting to negotiations, but he says much that will be highly pertinent going forward. (Emphasis is added)
“Washington’s strategic messaging has entered a new phase. The next stage of this war is no longer confined to striking IRGC military installations or Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. In reality, the principal objective is no longer simply the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program; it is the erosion of the regime’s governing capacity…
“The first [strategic objective] is to cripple the regime’s already fragile governing capacity: power plants, oil refineries, electricity transmission networks, and energy hubs are not merely economic facilities – they form the backbone of command, logistics, and the continuity of state operations.
“The second objective is to degrade Iran’s military sustainment capability: electricity and fuel are essential to the country’s defense industries, missile systems, maintenance facilities, and logistical supply chains, meaning the purpose is not merely to inflict economic damage but to diminish the regime’s operational military capacity…
“Trump’s broader objective appears to be compelling Tehran to surrender and return to negotiations. In my assessment, however, the ideological rigidity, fanaticism, and illusions of the Shi’ite clerical establishment make such an outcome unlikely. The regime has repeatedly demonstrated that it would rather see Iran devastated than abandon what it considers its revolutionary ideology.
“Strategically, this is no longer a conventional military campaign. It has evolved into a form of system warfare in which the regime’s center of gravity is no longer the IRGC or its nuclear facilities, but the infrastructure that enables the regime itself to survive.
The regime’s center of gravity now lies in its national electricity grid, oil refineries, fuel distribution networks, command-and-control centers, communications systems, and the institutional mechanisms that sustain the continuity of government. If these critical systems are disrupted, the consequences will extend far beyond physical destruction…
“In reality, America’s wasted time negotiating with a Shi’ite Islamic Nazi terrorist regime in Iran was an insult to the intelligence of humanity in the 21st century, as well as to civilization and morality. No one shakes hands with murderers, bomb-makers, terrorists, and a religious dictatorship, nor signs a deal with them.
“Diplomacy with a savage junta is an illusion…
The path forward is clear: only by dismantling the infrastructure that sustains the Islamic Republic can the United States and its allies force a strategic recalibration in Tehran – or precipitate the regime’s eventual collapse. Anything less will allow the mullahs to continue their decades-long campaign of terrorism, instability, and ideological expansion.
“The time for half-measures has passed…”
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-904308
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I ask, as I always do, that you please pray. Pray for our leaders, both political and military, for our soldiers, and for all of Am Israel.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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