Aynaz Anni Cyrus | Jan 06, 2026
Image via AI
The regime in Tehran fears many things: the United States military, a full-scale Israeli operation, and the rise of opposition figures abroad. But according to global market experts, what it fears most is something much closer to home: economic collapse.
In a stunning interview with CNBC, global strategist David Roche makes it plain: the long-term economic crisis in Iran poses a far greater risk to the Islamic Republic’s survival than a military strike ever could. In his words, regime change is “likely,” not because of bombs, but because of broken budgets and unrelenting nationwide protests. And the regime has no tools left to fix it.
This is one of the reasons many of us Iranians, including Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, are asking the United States to stay out of this matter.
A Dictatorship Without Options
The message from Roche and fellow analysts is devastating: Iran’s economy is imploding, and the regime has no levers left to pull. No sanctions relief, no global partnerships, no reform mechanisms. All they have is propaganda, and even that’s not working.
CNBC, Reuters, and other international outlets are now openly documenting how the regime is attempting to buy silence with food coupons. One so-called “stimulus” package offers the equivalent of $7 per month, usable only at regime-approved grocery stores.
For context, the average Iranian worker makes the equivalent of $103 per month. The regime’s answer? A monthly $7 food coupon.
That tells you just how desperate this regime is.
The Fear of freedom fighters
Inside Tehran, the regime knows the game is changing, and it’s not because of foreign threats. It’s because the people of Iran refuse to back down.
Analysts at BMI Research, linked to Fitch Solutions, note that the regime is growing increasingly cautious, not out of fear of America but of its own citizens. The arrest of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces may have made headlines, but in Iran, it’s the chants on the streets that shake the walls of power.
And while President Trump has issued a warning that more bloodshed could provoke a response, the most powerful message isn’t coming from Washington. It’s coming from the ground.
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