Exit polls suggest Likud will get 37 seats and the right wing block will be 60 strong.

Matti Tuchfield writes about such a scenario:

A Likud government with defectors from the left-wing bloc:  If Netanyahu wins 60 seats or less for the right-wing bloc, he will seek to enlist as many MKs as possible from Blue and White and Yisrael Beytenu before surrendering his mandate from the president to form a government.

“During the May 2019 election, Netanyahu made a last-ditch effort to enlist Labor, which was headed at the time by Avi Gabbay, into his coalition. Gabbay, however, decided at the last minute not to join and the Knesset was dispersed. Netanyahu will try it again this time around, in the case of another deadlock. With that, the law makes it hard to resign from a party and such a move entails sanctions on defecting MKs, such as revoking their ability to later run for Knesset on an existing party ticket. This could easily deter MKs from leaving Blue and White or Yisrael Beytenu for the coalition.”

March 2, 2020 | 29 Comments » | 590 views

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29 Comments / 29 Comments

  1. Actual votes perhaps will find one more seat or two.

    If not one and maybe two seats from Blue/White & one other party could be found to vote for Bibi for Prime Minister.

  2. I see a way around that law, and welcome correcting posts For instance, the B&W MK who said that Gantz was total fool not fitted to be PM…She could just indicate her inclination to support LIKUD, without leaving her own party….. maybe??

  3. @ Edgar G.:
    She could vote Likud and support them. Clearly this would finish her career in Blue/White but that is pretty much over anyway.

  4. @ Bear Klein:

    That’s not what I mean, yes vote for them, but still not voluntarily leave her party They’ll eject her, but perhaps then, that Law will not come into effect is such a case.

  5. @ Edgar G.:
    There is also Orly Levy-Abekasis from Gesher who is center/right on Nationalist issues and the Labor-Meretz-Gesher party clearly has a miserable future path who might be tempted to vote for Bibi. Her father was David Levy a past Likud big shot. She gave a wishy washy answer when asked about the prospect.

  6. Netanyahu aide: Opposition MKs will defect to right to support coalition

    Jonathan Urich, Netanyahu’s spokesperson, predicts that lawmakers from opposition parties will defect to join a right-wing government led by the Likud leader.

    He makes the prediction in an early morning interview with Channel 12.

    Likud has already reached out to several prospective candidates believed to be willing to cross the aisle, including Blue and White MKs Yoaz Hendel, Zvi Hauser, Omer Yankelevich, and Gesher leader Orly Levy-Abekasis.

  7. “40% of the votes counted: Likud – 29.06%, Blue and White – 23.26%
    With about 40 percent of the votes counted, the Likud Party has received 29.06 percent, followed by Blue and White with 23.26 percent and the Joint List at 12.26 percent.

    The Shas Party checks in with 8.89 percent, United Torah Judaism – 8.6 percent, Yamina – 6.02 percent, Labor-Gesher-Meretz – 5.62 percent and Yisrael Beytenu – 5.44 percent. The right-religious bloc would have 52.57 percent, compared to 41.14 for the center-left and predominantly-Arab parties.”

    From Arutz Sheva, as of 8..25 Israeli time 3-3.

    I think this translates into 63-64 seats if this trend holds up.

  8. @ adamdalgliesh:

    At 9.30 a.m in Israel 75% of the votes had been counted. Likud led by 3 (35-32) and the Bloc by 2.(58-56) Arabs 17 …all estimated…Expected to change a lot.

  9. Fix! Fix!. Fix!

    There is no legitimate reason for withholding the final returns for a week. There is no legitimate reason for withholding the voting returns that have already come in from the public–which is what the Election Commission is doing. No reason for such a long delay in counting the soldiers’ and hospital patients votes. It doesn’t take a week or ten days to count their ballots.

    If the commission is really so concerned about electoral fraud and wants to exercise a lot of care to prevent it, why did they only seriously investigate two alleged fraudulent voting cases when poll-watchers reported hundreds? Why was the only individual actually arrested, for ballot-stuffing in the September 2019 election an Arab Muslim activist for Likud (a rare breed, and undoubtedly unpopular with the Joint List)? And why were the hundreds of Joint List activists accused by Likud poll-watchers of fraud in the same election never investigated? And why was this lone Arab Likud polls-watcher arrested only on the day of the third election?

    The Brits managed to count the ballots from their last election in real time, and simultaneously broadcast the returns the moment they came in. They were able to broadcast the final results on British television only 24 hours after the polls closed. The process was transparent. Why then is the Israeli vote-counting process so untransparent and secretive?

    I was very suspicious of the supposed “computer glitch” in the September elections, that when “repaired” suddenly changed the seats for the New Right
    from four to zero. And this after all the polls consistently predicted that they would win some seats. I am now convinced that my suspicions were correct.

    The Supreme Court is now hearing the petition to disqualify Bibi as Prime minister from some phoney “Good Government” committee. Bibi claims that the trial judges who have been appointed by the Supremes to try him are leftists who have already decided to convict him. The prosecution has listed several hundred witnesses it wants to call, most of them with no first-hand information about Bibi’s alleged crimes, in an obvious attempt to keep him on trial for years. Even if the Electoral Commission ultimately fails in its efforts to fix the election, the courts and the prosecutors are still determined to fix Bibi.

    Israel is a corrupt oligarchy, not a democracy. The oligarchy has found it difficult to abolish elections outright, because it would create too much of an outcry if they did. So they do whatever they can to fix the elections and/or to “neutralize” them by forcing repeated elections, in order to discredit the whole democratic process in the eyes of the Israeli public.

  10. @ adamdalgliesh:A reporter (in Hebrew) at the Central Elections Headquarters explained that they have undertaken new procedures this cycle to correct for the errors of the past elections and to be careful everything is correct.

    After they have counted they are double checking. So in fact if one listened this reporter (Kan 11) the whole process sounded much more sound, secure, professional and democratic!

    97% of votes counted give Likud-led right-wing bloc 59 seats,
    2 short of majority; votes of soldiers and diplomats not yet tallied

    It is possible to pick up one seat or two with the excess allocation.

    340,000 votes cast by members of the military, the diplomatic corps, hospitals, and those voters who have been exposed to the coronavirus – enough to change some of the political map, will only be announced on Thursday.

  11. The Israeli media on TV (Kan 11) is busy debating whether any of the MKs mentioned before would actually vote for Bibi and desert their parties.

    Based on their views it sounds very very iffy but still possible.

  12. @ Edgar G.:
    A good explanation can be found at:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/all-about-splits-how-can-mks-cross-the-aisle-and-what-price-would-they-pay/

    Facit:

    A split is possible without “punishment” if a party decides to “change sides”. Telem would be ideal (probably 4 votes), but Gesher (1 vote) could help, too.

    An additional possibility is that one-third of the MKs elected to the Knesset on a particular slate decide to break away. Such a move (which must include a minimum of two MKs) will also be defined as a list that split into two independent factions and not as individual MKs who decided to defect.

    What about 1/3 of Yisrael Beytenau?

  13. @ adamdalgliesh:

    “Fix” …that’s silly. (I’m sure you’re kidding) They re making VERY sure they release the absolutely correct results. Checking and rechecking. …..Plus, the 340,000 double envelopes, still to be counted, include nearly 5,000 from those in quarantine. The same Kan that you mentioned, also pointed out they they could get nobody willing to count these ballots, and eventually resorted to the MDA, who expressed willingness to do so, the only ones in all Israel…

    So, whilst I think you are exaggerating a bit with your “10 days” and that the comparison with the UK, which has a completely different system, and is not acceptable, I DO agree with you, that I’d like to see the end results sooner; I’m just as impatient as you, and check everywhere 120 times a day…….

    I have a feeling that Neatnyahu will be able to squeeze out those two-three extra seats from somewhere…at least one or more from the IDF and Dip. Corps.

  14. These are the latest election returns posted on the Central Election Committee website, translated into English by google. Note that only 60 per cent of the returns ar eposted , in spite of the Committee’s claim to have counted all the votes except those of soldiers, etc. This slowness in publishing returns is similar to what one can expect from a third world country, not an advanced democracy.

    “Central Election Committee for the 23rd Knesset

    ?????? ????? ? – 23
    Elections to the 23rd Knesset
    2 March 2020
    National results

    The Truth Results of the 23rd Knesset Elections
    National results
    Results are correct for 03/03/2020 23:15 for the national section

    Pursuant to the provisions of Article 11 of the Basic Law: Knesset and Article 84 of the Knesset Elections Law [Combined Version], 1969, the final results of the elections to the 23rd Knesset will be published in the records by Tuesday, March 10, 2020 Results to date are expected to change.
    Total voters Total voters Rate of votes counted Total eligible votes Total invalid votes
    6,453,255 4,261,287 66.03% 4,238,839 22,448
    The name of the list The letters of the list Percentage of list votes
    Total of eligible votes Number of qualified votes for the list
    Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister forgave 29.24% 1,239,580
    Blue and white led by Benny Gantz Here 26.36% 1,117,247
    The joint list Hadash, PM, TA, Bld And bad 13.10% 555,158
    Torah observant Sephardic Association Movement of Maran Rabbi Ovadia Yosef ztl Shs 7.74% 328,295
    Torah Judaism and Shabbat Agudat Israel – Flag of the Torah third 6.15% 260,795
    Israel our home, headed by Avigdor Lieberman To 5.89% 249,558
    The Work – Bridge – Meretz Truth 5.72% 242,577
    To the right the new right – the Jewish House – the National Union TB 5.02% 212,607
    Jewish power led by Itamar Ben Gvir Hawk 0.41% 17,576

  15. “99.5 percent of regular ballot boxes counted
    Right-wing bloc remains at 59 seats with 55 ballot boxes remaining to be counted.”

    From tonight’s Arutz Sheva. So why are only 60% of the votes published on the Central Election Committeee’s web site?

  16. Likud: 36 (1,237,684 votes, 29.26%)
    Blue and White: 32 (1,115,860 votes, 26.38%)
    The Joint List: 15 (551,358 votes, 13.04%%)
    Shas: 10 (327,778 votes, 7.75%)
    UTJ: 7 (260,263 votes, 6.15%)
    Yisrael Beytenu: 7 (248,964 votes, 5.89%)
    Labor-Gesher-Meretz: 7 (242,254 votes, 5.73%)
    Yamina: 6 (212,337 votes, 5.02%)

    This total is the same as the total on the official Central Election Committee web site. From tonight’s Jerusalem Post.

  17. @ adamdalgliesh:

    Because being “counted” doesn’t automatically mean that they have been already passed on to the validating Committee, been re-checked, double/triple-checked and passed as valid…..

  18. If it goes to a fourth election, maybe Likud should just break the stalemate by running Trump.

  19. @ Bear Klein:
    No, it was a joke because Trump is so popular they are naming railroad stations and Trump Heights after him. Yes, I think he will win in November, and Sanders isn’t out, yet. There’s still about half the required delegates unaccounted for in future primaries.

  20. @ adamdalgliesh:
    This reads like the Mishnah: people who voted for the minor parties seem to have just wanted to register their opinions, even if they didn’t wind up getting followed.

  21. @ Sebastien Zorn:
    I knew you were joking and was spinning off your joke with Trumps conversion. He could become an honorary President in Israel perhaps (serious now).

    I predict Biden will win Michigan in the next round of six states plus some more like Missouri. Then in the next round after that he will take a serious lead because he will destroy Bernie in Florida and also win Ohio.

    Unless Biden shoots someone or rapes someone he will be the DEM nominee, I am predicting.

  22. Bear Klein Said:

    Unless Biden shoots someone or rapes someone

    would that be an issue for a Democrat? If past history is anything to go by.

  23. @ Sebastien Zorn:

    All I can say about Bear’s response at 3.31 a.m. to you, is…..HAHAHAHAHAHA . I’m sure you know it’s not the Clinton-esque comment ….but the fact that ……….and attached to it is YOUR comment at 1.49 a.m..

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