Arlene Kushner | June 16, 2026
President Donald J. Trump meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Jan. 27, 2020. By The White House from Washington, DC – President Trump Meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Public Domain, Wikipedia
We cannot in all honesty say we did not realize this could happen. Donald Trump’s propensity for making “deals” is well known.
If I had 100 NIS for every time I have written that he is a “transactionalist,” I would probably be a wealthy woman today. His transactions are pragmatic – give-and-take interactions undertaken to fulfill specific short-term goals; they are not founded upon enduring values that call for a consistent, long-term commitment.
Yes, we Israelis knew. That is why we sometimes said to each other, “You know, he still might throw us under the bus.”
We knew, but we often – too often – brushed that knowledge aside. Perhaps this was because there had also been a reassuringly positive side to the president’s behavior. On the surface of it, amazingly positive, I must say.
When he returned to office, Trump immediately released weaponry that we had paid for and Biden had held back. Of late, there has been the release of major cutting-edge military equipment, which is no small matter – of particular note is the first of six KC-46 Refueling Jets.
As well, there were the on-going reports of an extraordinarily close interaction between Netanyahu and Trump, exemplified by the prime minister’s frequent visits to the White House. In recent months we were told that the two consulted by phone on a frequent basis.
And then there was the war against Iran launched jointly by the militaries of Israel and the US. in February 2026. I do not know if there have ever been another report of two militaries fighting side by side as allies with mutual respect and full cooperation, such as was the case here.
There was then, quite naturally, a sense of confidence in the strength of the Israeli-US relationship.
During the war, the IDF released a statement from Chief of Staff LTG Eyal Zamir that included this:
“I am in continuous contact with my American counterparts, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States Armed Forces, General Dan Caine, and the Commander of CENTCOM, Admiral Brad Cooper.
“We are fighting based on shared interests and shared values. We are fighting shoulder to shoulder. They are true friends.”
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The war was initiated in good part because of intelligence that Iran was close to being able to produce a nuclear weapon, and it was understood by both parties that this could not be permitted to happen.
But there were other issues that were included in the goals for the war: Eliminating Iran’s cache of ballistic missiles – which could be used to do great harm to Israel and the Arab Gulf states – and blocking the regime’s ability to acquire or build more, and preventing Iran from providing support for its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Considerable damage was done to Iran in the course of that war, which then transitioned to an off-again, on-again truce of sorts as Trump, who does not have patience for a long war, attempted to resolve matters “diplomatically.” And here we see clear indications of a difference of opinion between the president and our prime minister. Messages from Trump were increasingly erratic and sometimes contradictory.
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I have been pondering what I think is a significant question: Did Trump, as he entered the war against Iran, truly get it – that is, did he comprehend even superficially the underlying religious philosophy of the Jihadists? Did he understand the very legitimate reasons for continuing to fight? When he began the war, he did speak about Iranian attacks on the US over the decades, which made it clear that this was not just Israel’s war. But how deep was his understanding of the entity that calls the US the “Great Satan” and the risks that it presents? Unfortunately, he has relied upon clueless “advisors” such as Steve Witkoff, and Jihadist supporters such as Qatari officials.
Bibi Netanyahu, it goes without saying, has a very clear-eyed understanding of Jihadism, and undoubtedly was going it alone as the war and the reasons for continuing it progressed.
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It is possible that Trump indeed originally had some measure of understanding but, transactionalist that he is, became focused on more immediate goals.
What I want to emphasize here is the way in which the Iranians out-maneuvered him.
What they did is to take control of the Hormuz Strait, thereby blocking the movement of oil and causing a skyrocketing of oil prices.
The narrow Strait of Hormuz lies between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, separating Iran (north) from the Arabian Peninsula (south). Photo by MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC – This image or video was catalogued by Goddard Space Flight Center of the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under Photo ID: 2020-12-04., Public Domain, Wikipedia
There are analysts who maintain that the US military should have foreseen this possibility and stationed forces along the Strait in an action to prevent this. But they did not.
Trump’s subsequent blocking of Iranian ports did not resolve the problem and increasingly he was focused on contending with this particular issue. A mid-term election is coming in the US in November and the transactionalist Trump, attempting to address this immediate concern, was set on ending the war well before then.
There were periods over the past weeks during which the US hit Iran or threatened to do so. This often seemed to be an effort to pressure the regime to participate in negotiations. But Israel hit Iran as well. Reports indicated that these attacks – both the American and the Israeli – had taken out radar and other early warning equipment. My guess was that this suggested Trump would in the end decide for a major attack, in spite of his apparent vacillation. I was wrong.
It seems clear that the Iranians sensed Trump’s eagerness for a deal and knew they had the upper hand. Repeatedly, they attempted to enfold issues of Israel fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon into US demands for a ceasefire. And so, Trump sought, unsuccessfully, to curtail our actions against Hezbollah. This we cannot and must not allow. I believe both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have made this clear. What is more, we will not leave southern Lebanon. Hezbollah continued to launch drones and missiles into northern Israel. In spite of US warnings just days ago, we hit a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut in response. Trump spoke out angrily against our having done so.
The Iranians then said they would retaliate, and we in Israel were prepared for this on Sunday night. But the Iranian missile attack never materialized. What became clear is that Trump had intervened. First it was said that he offered money, but he denied this. What I understand is that he softened some terms for a deal if Iran would not attack. This was Trump showing weakness and failing to unequivocally support our right to defend ourselves.
The bottom line is that Donald Trump does not take being crossed lightly, and Netanyahu is out of favor now.
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As everyone reading this surely knows, on Sunday Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Iran. A Memorandum of Understanding will be officially signed on Friday. It provides for a sixty-day period for negotiating the terms of the end of the war.
The signing has not yet taken place, and who knows what might transpire in the next couple of days. Far more significantly, we must keep in mind the possibility that the negotiations might fall apart during the two months that follows. If history is a guide, this is likely to happen. The regime will renege on a promise made or make yet other demands. Trump might then turn his ire on them.
And then there is this: “Iran’s Top Joint Military Command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central ?Headquarters, says that Israel should expect a hard response from the Iranian armed forces if it does not stop its attacks on southern Lebanon, days after Tehran and Washington announced a deal to end the regional war.
“Tehran has insisted that the memorandum of understanding requires Israel to halt its offensive against Hezbollah — a claim that both Jerusalem and Washington have disputed.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-june-16-2026/
An Iranian attack on Israel might shift the situation.
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As details of the agreement have not been announced, there is, in the main, speculation and rumor regarding what it says. I will touch here on only a couple of points.
There was a great deal being said about money that was going to be provided up front to Iran once negotiations began. Trump denounced these reports as “False News.” But I share the following:
“According to the report, the clause dealing with relief for Iranian oil exports will take effect immediately once the agreement is signed, which is expected to happen later this week. The move is intended to provide Tehran with an initial economic incentive as part of efforts to reduce tensions and bring the war to an end.
“Sources familiar with the matter noted that Iran will be able to immediately begin selling oil and fuel on international markets after years of restrictions and sanctions imposed on it.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/428728
This is bad news: buying the regime’s cooperation before they have done anything but agree to sit at a table. Funds that Iran would acquire – which over time would amount to billions – would allow them to begin to strengthen. Should talks in the end fail, they will be in a stronger position for going back to war.
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I read that Trump said Netanyahu should be grateful that the US fighting in the war eliminated Iran’s ability to attack with a nuclear weapon. But that is not quite the truth of the matter. The destruction that Iran endured during the war makes it more difficult for it to develop a nuclear weapon, but not impossible. Iran still possess a sizeable quantity of enriched uranium that is hidden within the country: most of it is entombed in tunnels in Isfahan, with additional quantities believed to be stored at Natanz and Fordo. What is more, I have picked up reports that Iran has already booby-trapped these sites to prevent American access.
But please see this short video clip of Vice President JD Vance interviewed by Hannity on Fox:
He said that Trump has indicated Iran has agreed to destroy their enriched uranium, working in tandem with US forces.
https://worldisraelnews.com/watch-vance-iranian-nuclear-dust-to-be-destroyed-in-tandem-with-iran/
Vice President JD Vance Hosting The Charlie Kirk Show. Photo by The White House – YouTube: VP Vance Hosts the Charlie Kirk Show – View/save archived versions on archive.org and archive.today, Public Domain, Wikipedia
But I tell you my friends, that this is not to be believed. Categorically. Anyone who understands the intentions of the regime knows that it will not relinquish its enriched uranium. The question is whether Trump made this up, or the Iranians lied to him. If Trump has any understanding of the regime, he knows they will not give it up.
But while we are on the topic of Vance, let me point out that of late he seems to be playing an increased advisory role in the administration, which is not good news. His push may have been a factor in the turn Trump has taken: He tends toward an isolationist position and is not a friend of Israel. According to Israel Hayom, Vance has established strong ties with Qatar’s leadership.
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Professor Eytan Gilboa, a senior researcher at the Begin Saadat Center of Strategic Studies, points out that the memorandum of understanding does not mention the uranium that is enriched to 60% (which is what is hidden). “At first, Trump demanded that the uranium be removed (from Iran), and now they say they are fine with Iran diluting the uranium.”
If Gilboa is correct, this means what Vance said is, simply, a lie. He further indicated that:
“Regarding Lebanon, instead of weakening the connection between Iran and the Hezbollah terrorist organization, Iran demands that the connection be bolstered. Trump didn’t manage to change this, and since he’s so eager to reach a permanent arrangement, he agreed to it. With this, he violated a clear Israeli interest, which is also an American one, since the US wanted an agreement with the elected government and the disarmament of Hezbollah. The memorandum of understanding goes in the opposite direction.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/428667
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Israel is in a better position today than before the war, for much damage has been done to Iran. We should not lose sight of this in the face of the current struggles. It falls to us to stand alone, and to stand strong for our rights to self-defense.
It will not be easy. Netanyahu was denied access to the MoU before it is signed. But the Mossad, which has achieved incredible things, both in Iran and with Hezbollah, intends to keep at it. There are those in the Mossad who believe the regime might be brought down within a year. I will follow on this.
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As to Trump’s three betrayals: The first is obvious. We here in Israel, who are the most vulnerable with regard to Iranian attacks, have been betrayed. There is nothing in the MoU about Iranian proxies or Iranian ballistic missiles. These issues were shunted aside in Trump’s eagerness to open the Strait.
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And it applies similarly to the United States. He has betrayed the America he said he wanted to make great again. Not only is Hezbollah active in Latin America, there are Hezbollah sleeper cells inside the US. What is more, Iran is working on a long-range ballistic missile that can reach America. (Could it possibly be that Trump does not know all of this?)
Had Trump had the courage, the moral vision, he might have stood up to explain to American people why continued fighting in Iran is in their best interest. The people do not understand and had he been a true leader, he might have led them in the right direction.
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Lastly, he betrayed the Western world. When one understands Islamist ideology, one can perceive the risk it represents to all of the West. The Islamists seek to weaken it and bring it down, one state at a time.
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And here is the heartbreak: “Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth, with the help of several senior officials at the Pentagon and the State Department, presented an assessment that the Iranian regime was dying because of economic pressure, and that intensifying that pressure was the right way to secure its surrender or, alternatively, its collapse.” They were presenting another alternative to the MoU that would have required no US concessions. Now Trump is thinking of firing Hegseth as well CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who also opposed the deal.
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With all of this, my friends, I believe we will be OK. We have been in tough times before. We have help from Above and are an extraordinarily resilient and determined people.
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I ask, as I always do, that you please pray. Pray for our leaders, both political and military, and for all of Israel.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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