Iran builds new Eastern Front in Iraq against Israel, Jordan

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 6, 2011,

Iraq’s radical Moqtada Sadr ready to move in

The urgent phone call Jordan’s King Abdullah II put in to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu Wednesday Jan. 5 dealt only marginally with stalled diplomacy with the Palestinians. The king pressed for answers on what Jerusalem and Amman can do to curb Iran’s advancing domination of Iraq in the face of America’s inaction.

Referring to Hizballah’s role, Abdullah commented to Netanyahu: First Iran’s missiles had you jammed from the north and the south, now Iran and Hizballah are cornering you from the east. The Americans are not lifting a finger to stop this happening.”

The call, which came through the day before the Israeli prime minister met Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak for lunch at Sharm al Sheikh, elicited no real practical replies. Netanyahu confirmed that Israel still stood by the guarantee of support its armed forces and security services had granted the Hashemite Kingdom and its ruler for the past 60 years.

Both the king and the prime minister appreciated that words are not enough. Since both their military and strategic policies are synchronized with Washington, the total disintegration of American strategic positions in Baghdad Wednesday, Jan 5, was an alarming setback to both Jerusalem and Amman.

On that day, the anti-US radical Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, a close friend and ally of Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, came marching home from self-imposed exile in Iran, and the new Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi paid his first visit to Baghdad – both in full sight of 50,000 US troops.

Sadr was greeted by thousands of supporters on his return to his old stronghold in the holy city of Najef south of Baghdad three years after his armed militia was defeated in bloody revolts against US forces.

The two arrivals from Iran, the cleric and the diplomat, made it plain that Tehran has Iraq by the throat and plans to impose on Baghdad its regime structure, which rests on two focii, the political capital and the clergy. Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is already in Iran’s pocket; he is beholden to the radical Sadr’s support for his appointment. The same cleric – and therefore Iran – will control his fate – both by means of the 40-member Sadrist faction in parliament and the authority he wields from his seat in the religious city of Najef.

Tehran has also not neglected to carve out a position of influence in Baghdad for its Lebanese protégé, Hizballah, whose officers and instructors have been training the commanders of Sadr’s powerful militia, the Mahdi Army, alongside Iranian instructors.

The two ultra-radical Shiite leaders, Sadr and Nasrallah, are now bound closer together than ever before in an adventure for bringing Iraq under pro-Iranian Shiite domination. Iraq’s neighbors, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, could only shudder at the sight of the two black-turbaned Shiite extremists taking charge of Iraq on behalf of Revolutionary Iran against no opposition.

This pair and Maliki have taken out of the hands of Washington and Baghdad the decision on whether a reduced US force stays on in Iraq after the main force departs in 11 months’ time. Moqtada Sadr has vowed to remove every last American from Iraqi soil and no one shows any sign of stopping him. US troops will be replaced by Shiite-dominated Iraqi forces, the Shiite militias commanded and funded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Al Qods Brigades and Hizballah militia detachments transferred from Lebanon.

Iran will in the coming months consolidate the Shiite takeover over Iraq. Hizballah will win a place in the sun and strategic depth after being squeezed between Syria, Israel and the sea.

After US troops exit Iraq, the Iranians will be able to deploy their missiles and Hizballah’s rockets in the bases the Americans leave behind in Iraq and point them at Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

January 7, 2011 | 6 Comments »

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  1. His ongoing treachery towards Israel is also insuring terrible consequences for America because the ‘coincidences’ of Genesis 12:3 just keep coming on schedule.

    The American and global economic collapse will occur within 2-3 years. But I would if I were you to move away from geological fault lines, any large bodies of water, forests, and areas known to be affected by tornadoes, Hurricanes. Don’t work or live in hi rises etc.

    Now the LORD said unto Abram: ‘Get thee out of thy country, and from thy kindred, and from thy father’s house, unto the land that I will show thee.Genesis Chapter 12:1

    This is the primary message for all Jews.

  2. Hi, Bert and Sam

    In the long run, I, as an American, am more concerned with what is happening in the US and Europe than in the Middle East — but the latter can’t be ignored. I see the big problem ahead as One World Government centered, for all practical purposes, in the US and Europe and built upon the backbone of NATO. Since the contest is between this government and its own people, Al Qaeda and Iran both are doing a service to the “Americans” (who are anything but, being the Internationalist leaders in power).

    Israel and the Middle East (ME) are peripheral to all this, and things like the Sunni-Shia rivalry are very important. Sunni Turkey is aligning itself with the Shiites like Assad and Hizbullah for various reasons, and is unlikely to change course. The Sunnis are split between Wahabbist-inspired radicals such as Al Qaeda, and the Wahabbist-supported Saudi government. With the Saudi king looking forward to a questionable remaining life, any talk of a “Sunni front” is in question. Add to this, the fact that Sunni HAMAS has already aligned itself with Iran, and there is potential in the ME for a real donneybrook.

    Israel will be in the thick of it, and needs to think on its feet. As I said above, India is a potential ally, as Russia may become also. Russia seems, to me, to be in a really ambivalent position. They are putting on a show of military cooperation with China, but they know that even this combination is no military match for the US-Japan-Europe coalition. Their ties with China are primarily economic, in my estimation, with Russia being a major energy supplier and China the major consumer. Their ties with India are also, in my book, primarily economic; as India is a major and fairly reliable consumer of Russian military equipment. Any connection with India, though, puts Russia at variance with China because the latter backs India’s enemy Pakistan. This, in turn, bears upon the ME situation because Pakistan is backing Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons against Iran.

    The only thing that would make the ME situation more clear, would be an Al Qaeda takeover of bothe Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The US has been fighting against this, probably not to any small extent because an “unclear” Middle East benefits the arms, oil and drug merchants in the US and Europe, who are closer to the real power circles in the world than the citizens of their countries.

    God also does well in “confused” situations, though, and so does Israel. Trust in God, and hold onto your hat.

  3. The news is grim for Israel and getting worse. The actions of Obama compel me to believe that he knows exactly what he is doing and when we connect ‘all the dots’ he is deliberately acting to place Israel in a non survivable position both militarily and politically. He even sold out the people of Iran to insure that the extremists remain in power. His so-called sanctions on Iran are too little and too late and serve only to give him political cover. His ongoing treachery towards Israel is also insuring terrible consequences for America because the ‘coincidences’ of Genesis 12:3 just keep coming on schedule.

  4. Iraq: Iran wins; America loses

    A few months ago there were two analyses: Victor Davis Hanson said things were not too bad in Iraq; while Spengler (Jewish) said they were terrible. It turns out Spengler was right.

    The shiite arabs in Iraq (60% of the population) have firmly allied with Iran (shiite non-arabs). This puts big pressure on the Saudis, since they have a sizable shiite arab minority living over the main saudi oil fields in northeast Saudi Arabia, and the hardline sunni Saudis treat them poorly.

    The Saudis will probably have to make a grand sunni alliance with Jordan (all sunni), Syria (majority sunni), and the Iraqi sunnis to stand against the shiites. King Abdullah in Jordan may go along and join. The alawite (shiite variants) minority tyranny in Syria will probably be overthrown. It may become the first sunni target.

    Jewish Israel might actually benefit from the shiite-sunni standoff.

    But if the hardline shiite government in Iran is replaced by a moderate secular government, the equation will be completely different.

  5. I’m still trying to piece all this together. Some preliminary assessments:

    1. The United States

    …is reeling, under an incompetent leadership. It appears to be in full retreat from the Middle East. Sooner or later, it will have to rally; but I can’t see this while Obama is still in office.

    2. China

    Between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China’s primary interests seem to be with the latter. China’s protégé, Pakistan, is providing The Saudis with a nuclear deterrent against Iranian aggression, while North Korea is apparently preparing a joint test with the Iranians. China’s relations with Israel have been heading south for several years now.

    3. France-UK

    have begun a new level of military cooperation, pressured by budget troubles in both countries. France, meanwhile, seems to be carrying the ball for the West while Obama has been psychologically sidelined. If Israel wants help in neutralizing Iran, I think they should find a more sympathetic ear in Paris than in Washington, for the time being; and the French are in a position to offer some real help, with a carrier and troops stationed in the area. At that, though; I’m not sure how committed Sarkozy is to acting, and even less sure about Netanyahu & Co.

    4. Russia

    has in the past courted a partnership with China, India AND Brazil, as a counterweight to the US. Reality seems to be setting in, though, that such a grouping is pie in the sky. Russia is going into joint production of a 5th-generation fighter with India, while keeping at arms’ length in its ventures with China (The latter’s propensity for technology theft has really ticked off the Russkies). This disengagement from China and her pro-Arab policies leaves Russia freer to pursue ties with Israel; and she is doing so.

    5. India

    has a raunchy, anti-Israel history under Congress administrations; but trouble from Pakistan, which shows no sign of going away, keeps driving it closer to Israel. The Indian people, meanwhile, are the most pro-Israel in the world; so there is some cause to hope for a Russia-Israel-India alliance in the future, barring stupidity in Israel’s leadership.

    6. Brazil, MERSOCUR, Turkey et al…

    I haven’t looked into them too deeply yet. I was surprized to see that Turkey’s slant away from Europe, and toward Iran and the crazies, actually began in the 1960s when they invaded Cyprus. It is their unrepentant stance concerning Cyprus that has driven a wedge more and more deeply between them and the West. Their rebuff at trying to get into the EU was just the last straw. I wouldn’t be amazed at anything that might happen there, including a 1979-Iran-like takeover of the US Embassy or the like. Like their blockade-busting ship, nothing short of a bloody conflict with Israel will cause them to alter their course.

    7. Iraq

    Yeah, it’s falling apart; and the US will probably leave Saigon-style. The Kurds are preparing to form a breakaway state; but they’d better try to get some Sunni Arab support by striking a deal over Kirkuk. Otherwise, they’re on their own and surrounded by enemies. They’ll get by somehow; but their jumping the Iraqi ship leaves the place wide open to a Turko-Iranian takeover. Hold onto your hat, when that happens.

    8. Saudi Arabia and Egypt

    Leaders dying. Anything can happen.

    9. Sudan

    A mess.

    10. Lebanon

    A mess.

    11. Syria

    I wouldn’t want to be Bashir Assad in a year or two.

    12. Israel

    Big parties in Tel Aviv