Just as I have been telling you, Israel is a big winner with this deal and Russian will help defend against attacks on their oil rigs. Not mentioned here is the fact that Russia has offered to bail out Cypress and Greece. Also Russia being an enemy of Turkey will defend Cyprus from attacks by Turkey. I am hoping that Russia has also agreed to veto UNSC resolutions if the US doesn’t.
See also Israel’s Leviathan gas group gets offers for share of field. What is unclear to me is what does Russia have an interest in. Ted Belman
By Lawrence Solomon: NATIONAL POST
Islamist terrorists will think twice before drawing Russia’s ire
For over 30 years, Israel tried swapping land for peace with its Arab neighbours. Those wishful political plays didn’t work out so well, but Israel’s latest foray — a hard-headed deal with Russia for cash and future considerations — holds more promise. In this unfolding new deal, Israel parts with a share of its lucrative offshore gas field in the Mediterranean, while Russia parts company with Israel’s enemies in Syria and Iran. Russia secures quite separate gains. Win-win for Israel and Russia. Lose-lose for Israel’s and Russia’s various rivals.
This unfolding deal promises to be a diplomatic and business masterstroke for both parties and shows how, when the energy business is at play, geopolitics is often the driver. First, why Russia, the world’s largest energy producer, needs this deal.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russia’s economy descended into a decade of privation and chaos that Russians still recall with national shame. Now Russia is back, thanks to its emergence as an energy superpower. Russia boasts Europe’s fastest-growing economy and its most potent military, both due to its stranglehold over Europe’s energy needs. Loathe to lose either influence or sales in Europe, Russia keeps competitors at bay, as it did last year when it stymied a Turkish bid to build a competing natural gas pipeline to Europe.
Today Russia faces two new threats to its hegemony over the European market: Exports of gas to Europe from Israel’s vast offshore finds in the Mediterranean Sea and continental Europe’s own finds, in the form of enormous shale gas reserves.
For now, environmental concerns have taken most of the shale gas potential off the table, keeping Europe dependent on imports. But Israel’s Mediterranean gas, combined with gas from Israel’s Mediterranean partner, Cyprus, have the potential to cost Russia its top-dog role as Europe’s chief source of natural gas.
Enter Gazprom Israel, a proposed subsidiary of Russian government-owned Gazprom, the world’s largest natural gas company. According to reports in the Israeli and Eurasian media, the Israeli government has agreed to give the Russians a stake in the Mediterranean find, and also to increase the amount of gas allowed to be exported. With this deal, Russia would be cutting itself into any sales of Mediterranean gas to Europe or, possibly better from Russia’s point of view, it could persuade Israel to instead sell Mediterranean gas to Asian markets — a live option even without the advent of Gazprom Israel. Either way, Russia would retain the dominant role in Europe that underpins its national pride.
As for Israel, the benefit of aligning itself with Russia’s economic interests would be immense. Over the last half-century, Russia and Russian arms have been a mainstay of Arab nations and Muslim terrorists that sought Israel’s destruction.
In recent years, Russia’s attitude toward Israel has become more nuanced, partly because Russia wants Israeli intelligence on Islamic terrorists targeting Russia, partly because Russia wants Israel’s state-of the-art arms, such as its UAVs.
Two years ago, the two countries signed a military co-operation agreement, followed by a sale of Israeli UAVs to Russia. It was also followed by Russian willingness to withhold arms sales to Syria and Iran that would undermine Israel’s military supremacy, such as a US$1-billion sale to Iran of Russia’s vaunted S-300 anti-missile system.
With Israel becoming a major energy exporter, able to upset Russia’s dominant role as a gas supplier in Europe, Russia is tilting further in Israel’s direction — and further from Israel’s enemies. And with Russia and Israel jointly developing resources off Israel’s shores, Israel’s gas fields will benefit in part from a Russian shield — belligerents who have been menacing Israel’s drilling rigs and other energy infrastructure — they include the government of Turkey as well as Islamist terrorists in Israel’s neighbouring countries — will now think twice before an attack that could draw Russia’s ire.
In jointly exploiting Mediterranean gas, Russia stands to gain diplomatically, Israel stands to gain militarily, and both stand to gain financially. They say politics makes for strange bedfellows. Geopolitics can make for sound businesses.
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Toronto-based Energy Probe. LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com
@ Joe Hamilton:
I believe that Marshal Semyon Timoshenko was a Jew as well.
Andrew Said:
The USA is Gog. FDR deliberately kept Jews with Visas out the US when the population was 130 million. The Soviet Union was the enemy of Israel but without their arming the newly independent Israel through their satellite Czechaslovakia who knows what the outcome of the Muslim beasts’ invasion of the Jewish National Homeland would have been . I spoke with a veteran of the Israeli army who fought the Muslim supremacist beasts in 1948-49. He told me until they receive armaments from the Czechs ,they only had at times one Sten gun with very limited range per 3 soldiers. Who liberated Auschwitz? The Red Army . Who killed any German even suspected of being a member of the SS? If you think it was the Americans, they were more likely to help them escape Germany. It was the Red Army who dealt the Nazis/Germans (same thing) a little of the punishment they had coming.During WWII which army liberated more Jewish survivors of Concentration camps? It wasn’t the Americans or British who wanted Hungarian Jews dead when Himmler wanted to negotiate a deal for their lives. Obama is just a bigger Jew hater but almost every US President was an anti-Semite. Herbert Hoover was the only true friend of the Jewish people. The Red Army in WWII was much fairer to Russian Jews holding rank. One Soviet Jew,Major General Chevankovski(sp?) was one of the five Soviet Generals who were in charge of a “front” when the Red Army invaded Germany. Commanding a front when the Red Army invaded the “Lair of Facisist Beast” was the highest honor in the Red Army in WWII. The demographics of the US has greatly changed for the worst. If they can elect and possibly reelect a low life like Mohammad Barak Hussein Raghead Obama the country has really deteriorated. The US will soon be a majority low IQ non white country. The US has always favored the Arabs and stabbed Israel in the back.
I still think Russia is Gog and it will all backfire in Israel’s face. But then again, what do I know.
@ Andrew:
A business deal (even a whole constellation of such deals) doesn’t constitute an ‘alliance’
— notwithstanding how loosely (and how much) the expression gets tossed around of late.
On the other hand, it’s conceivable that such an arrangement might make the Kremlin somewhat (or even MORE than ‘somewhat’) less inclined to block an attack on Iran.
@ Ted Belman:
Thank you for the reply and the useful link.
A thought that occurred to me (and I need to state that I’m no expert) concerning the desirability of Israel’s alliance with Russia (e.g. by agreeing to let the EU natural gas market to Russia and export the Israeli gas to Asia, as some speculate), is that Obama might use this as an excuse to really hurt Israel. We do know that (regrettably) Obama tries to distance himself as much as possible from Israel and we do know that the USA (commendably) places very high value in freeing Europe from Russia’s energy stranglehold ( Greek officials back in 2007 and 2008 were leaking info to the newspapers that they were being pressed relentlessly by their American counterparts so that Greece would not participate in the then proposed Russian pipeline). If Israel disturbs this (desirable) American interest in EU’s energy independence from Russia, then Obama might grab the opportunity to present Israel as a liability for the USA, and proceed accordingly (forcing Israel to more and more concessions to the Palestinian terrorists etc.).
Now, if Israel’s cooperation with Russia was an existential matter for Israel (as is the case with striking Iran) then obviously it should do whatever its right to survival dictated, even if it risked a temporary fallout with the USA.
But the decision on how to exploit the reserves, though a serious one, is definitely not existential. Wouldn’t it be better for Israel to wait it out, instead of cooperating immediately with Putin? In the worst case scenario Obama will be president for 4 more years, and the natural gas will still be there after that. Why risk the rage of an anti-Israel USA President, especially on an issue that could make Israel look really bad in the eyes of the western world?
Yes, of course, Obama and Europe already cast Israel as the villain in a number of issues concerning the Palestinians and they will certainly do so if Israel strikes Iran, but in all these issues they are on the wrong side of morality (how on earth could they possibly justify denying Israel’s right to self-defense). But if Israel cooperates with Putin’s regime against European interests, maybe they (Obama and the EU) will have a silver bullet, something that finally can stick against Israel, and something that even the Republicans will have hard time justifying.
I will repeat what Andrew said a few comments above: doing business with Putin is like doing business with the Corleone family. Does Israel need that?
@ dionissis mitropoulos:
Thank you for correcting me. I remembered when Russia offered to bail Greece out and assumed the deal was consummated. As for Russia coming to the defence of its oil interests, she certainly would if Turkey challenged the deal. I believe that Israel has some kind of deal with Cyprus. I assumed Russia would fir into that deal as well.
Russia’s Masterstroke: Bailing Out Cyprus
Creating improved bi lateral relations with players other than the west is important to Israel although it is difficult to project how far this can go. The fires are burning and the smoke wont clear for a while.
@ Ted Belman:
Hello Mr Belman.
I come from Greece, and though I’m not Jewish either ethnically or religiously (actually i’m Greek and atheist) I’m pro-Israel (the real variety, the one that sees the only solution of the conflict in the financial incentivization of Palestinians to relocate).
I need to object to your opening statement on two counts. First of all, Russia has never offered financial assistance to Greece (and the EU has not refused assistance to Greece, they merely made it conditional on Greece’s implementing an austerity program).
I’m also very skeptical of your assertion that Russia will attack Turkey, if Turkey attacks Cyprus, given that Turkey is a member of NATO (and, consequently, a Russian attack would draw USA into the conflict).
I wish you the best for your wonderful site.
@ yamit82:
Way out in front Yamit. Very perceptive.
Haifa?
Warm,
Deep,
Blue
Water
Port.
Good stuff Yamit. Great Putin quote too. I hope Putin is right (as much as I detest the man).
yamit82 says:
November 28, 2011 at 2:17 am
I predicted that at some point Israel would let the Russians in on our oil and gas potential if for nothing else to keeps our local and NATO wolves at bey. Attaking Israel and America is one thing but the Russians are feared because they are ruthless.
Our New-found energy potential is beginning to change the behavior and perceptions of the power players. Only Europe or at least the EU still don’t seem to get it but they will. Greece will get out of their economic situation when our gas and oil comes on line as our hub for distribution in western Europe.
ARE THE RUSSIANS PLAYING A DOUBLE GAME RE: IRAN?
Russian navy and Israeli military will hold joint exercises next week
Russian navy nears Cyprus drilling zone
November 25, 2011 |
THE “Admiral Kuznetsov” class aircraft carrier is currently off the coast of Malta and heading for eastern Mediterranean from their base in the Barents Sea.
Informed sources have said that the Russian navy and Israeli military will hold joint exercises next week close to Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone.
The exercises are slated to begin on the 28th November and last a week.
Commentators say that Russia is determined to send the message that they have invested interests in the region and will secure them.
It is understood that the aircraft carrier is carrying 24-fixed wing planes and a number of helicopters. It has also been reported in the press that the Russian navy may request to use port facilities at Limassol.
yamit82 says:
October 2, 2011 at 6:02 pm
Israel should have awarded the concessions to the Russians. Nobody would dare mess with them , not Turkey and not Iran or Hezbollah
Putin and Russia’s Views of Israel’s intentions and capabilities
I hope this writer is correct. But I don’t share his optimism. Doing business with Russia is like doing business with the Corleone family. And isn’t Russia still trying to block an attack on Iran. This comes after Russia humiliated Israel by using mafioso tactics to get it to hand over an important building in Jerusalem.