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While for years the Israelis have focused to the need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, their major concern now is the threat posed by Iran’s ballistic missile program. The Trump administration, alas, continues to focus on Iran’s nuclear program, apparently not convinced that the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missiles are a much more immediate problem. More on those missiles can be found here: “Iran expert: This is why Iran will never give up its ballistic missile program,” 103FM, February 9, 2026:
Iran is unlikely to relinquish its ballistic missile arsenal because the Islamic Republic views it as the last credible pillar of deterrence and a hedge against what it sees as unreliable US guarantees, Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told 103FM on Monday.
Zimmt said Iran is not seeking a military confrontation with the United States, but the key question is what Tehran is willing to concede to avoid one. He argued that Iran’s leadership has clear red lines, and missiles sit at the center of them.
From Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s perspective, Zimmt said, the missile program is the primary tool left to deter Iran’s enemies, and he does not trust US assurances….
The supreme leader may be willing to make concessions on the nuclear front by, for example, agreeing to hand over to the IAEA the 400 kg. of uranium it has enriched to a level of 60% purity, one step below weapons-grade. He may also be willing to call a halt to any further enrichment. But he will not budge on Iran’s ballistic missiles, both those that the IDF did not hit in the 12-Day War, and those built after that war. Nor will he promise to stop manufacturing more ballistic missiles; they are his country’s surest deterrence against attack by its enemies, Israel and the United States.
The Israeli and American bombing of nuclear facilities, especially those arrays of centrifuges used to enrich uranium at Natanz, Fordow, and in Isfahan, have set back by several years Iran’s nuclear program. For now that program remains a problem for the long-term. The ballistic missiles are a threat right now, for not only did some of those missiles remain unscathed underground during the 12-Day War, but since the war Iran has been determinedly building more, and reportedly improved, ballistic missiles.
According to Dr. Raz Zimmt, Israel realizes that it is not the nuclear program, but Iran’s ballistic missiles, that are the immediate threat, and it is up to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to persuade Donald Trump to move his focus in the negotiations away from the nuclear issue , to the question of the ballistic missiles.
If he cannot convince Trump that those long-range missiles are at this point far more of a threat, both to Israel and the United States, than Iran’s nuclear program, that was set back “for several years” by the joint Israel-US attacks last June, then Israel will have to go it alone, and inflict as much damage as it can on the existing ballistic missiles and on the missile production plants still standing in Iran. Save for one afternoon of American bombing of nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in June 2025, Israel fought the 12-Day War alone, as it fought its wars alone in 1948, 1967, 1973, and still fights alone its ongoing wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel would like the Americans to join them in attacking ballistic missiles that, after all, threaten not just Israel but American bases throughout the region.
And if Trump refuses, then Israel will indeed do what it must to survive attacks from its most malevolent and dangerous enemy.
We need to widen our view of the situation a little. The US agreed to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites while protected under ground for the simple reason that the radio activity stays under ground. This was reported by everybody. If that radio activity were to escape into the atmosphere, the whole gulf region would be contaminated and the oil would no longer be sold to anyone. As long as that nuclear material is kept deep below the surface, no problem.
With biological and chemical material, the story changes. Those that get bombed are dead. There may be more casualties near the region of impact, depending on the weather at that time. The land affected may even recover from the chemical or biological dispersion after a relatively short period of time. There is a “little” problem with missiles carrying such warheads: if they were to be shot down over the land between the launching point and the intended target, that region will suffer, which is, again, a reason why some countries are quite frightened right now and prefer Israel to suffer instead of them. That, is quite unfriendly and unneighborly, but they could claim that Israel was unfriendly and unneighborly by not accepting this gift from Iran.
When these worried countries then deny their airspace to US and IAF aircraft as they have already proclaimed, they may simply be hoping that the missiles from Iran will pass over them. If Israel does attack the sites where chemical and biological weapons are stored or to be launched, those regions will very likely be badly affected.
The remaining question is what the USA intends to do. They can leave this problem to the Israelis to deal with and hope that the oil sources are not affected, or they can take part to ensure that. They will have to consider the problem of their bases in the gulf region if Israel lets a missile or two pass through and only hit them (at Mach 10??) en route to their targets. Just think if one of those missiles were to hit a deserving Qatar or some other country
in the flight path.