Obama to present US Israel-Palestinian border map within 3 months

When I recently wrote Don’t extend the freeze, de facto or otherwise I said

    “Equally interesting is why the US is prepared to give so much, in their view, to get it. Does the US think they can get an agreement on borders? Can’t imagine how they would do it. Do they have a trick up their sleeves. Wouldn’t put it past them.”

Now we know what’s behind the three month extension. Obviously, if the negotiations don’t get started, they will present the plan anyway. Probably a worse one for Israel.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 14, 2010,

debkafile’s Washington sources disclose that the three-month settlement construction freeze-for-incentives deal Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu discussed with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Friday, Nov. 12, also included a commitment to hold Israel-Palestinian negotiations on the two states’ final borders during that period. Assuming the talks collapse, the Obama administration will take the initiative of delineating those borders and present its own map to both sides before the three months are up.

Our sources disclose that the boundaries the US map will adhere a lot more closely to Palestinian territorial aspirations than to Israel case. While no one is talking about imposing it on Israel, a rejection by the Netanyahu government would place it on a collision course with the Obama White House.

Word about Obama’s planned map was not relayed to the Israeli cabinet Sunday, Nov. 14 when Netanyahu reported to the cabinet on his talks with US leaders last week, our Jerusalem sources report.

According to our Washington sources, Obama believes that leaving Israel with no more than 4-4.5 percent of the pre-1967 West Bank area should satisfy its essential security requirements. In terms of population, this would entail the evacuation of dozens of settlements plus two important towns, Efrat in Gush Etzion in the south which has a population of 8,000, and Ariel in Samaria which has 20,000 inhabitants.

For Washington, it is the Palestinians who are laying down the law. After his ultimatum on construction was accepted as an obstacle to talks, the Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas now warns Washington that if every last Jewish resident is not cleared from Ariel, there will be no peace accord.

Even when the former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert held talks with Mahmoud Abbas in 2007 and 2008, Washington backed his demand for at least 5.9 percent of the land – although the figure quoted by Olmert is 6.5 percent. It was understood that in the past 33 years, these locations had developed exponentially each time the Palestinians refused to discuss peace and resorted to violence.
As for the US incentives offered Israel for accepting a second moratorium on settlement construction, Netanyahu neglected to mention the corresponding benefits to be offered the Palestinians.

The Obama administration is willing to let Israel have 20 F-35 stealth warplanes worth $3 billion in addition to the 20 already allocated and promises to veto anti-Israeli motions at the UN and other international bodies.

No one knows what promises are contained in the letter under preparation at the White House for the Palestinian Authority chairman. US sources told debkafile that Israel should not be surprised if commitments it contains are inimical to Israel.

Netanyahu’s concessions for talks go far beyond a building freeze but, lifted only a corner of the deal

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 14, 2010,

The package Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has accepted for US-sponsored talks with the Palestinians contains more substantial concessions than merely a freeze on settlement construction and goes far beyond the deal put before the security cabinet Saturday night, Nov. 13, debkafile reports from Jerusalem and Washington. The deal unveiled in Jerusalem early Sunday is only stage one of a larger secret package to which only Netanyahu and his close adviser Yithzak Molho are privy – not even Defense Minister Ehud Barak or the Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi.

This package has been in secret negotiation for several weeks in the Jordanian capital Amman – and possibly European venues – between American, Israeli, Palestinian, Saudi, Jordanian and Egyptian representatives. According to US and Saudi sources, Israel has made four major concessions that will go into force if and when peace is signed with the Palestinians.

Under the one-year deal concluded with the United States – as reported to the Security Cabinet Saturday night – Israel has accepted a second three-month moratorium on West Bank settlement construction including starts made after the expiry of the first 10-month freeze on Sept. 26. It will not apply to Jerusalem. No third moratorium will be requested.

In return, the United States agreed –

1. To request congressional approval for the sale of 20 F-35 stealth warplanes worth $3 billion in addition to the 20 already allocated.

2. To follow an Israel-Palestinian peace accord, if it is concluded, by signing a mutual defense treaty with Israel, negotiations for which to begin in the coming weeks.

3. To veto any anti-Israeli motions put forward at the UN Security Council or other international bodies on four subjects:

— Initiatives for imposing political solutions on Israel;

— Any unilateral Palestinian bid to establish an independent state;

— All acts aimed at undermining Israel’s legitimacy;

— Any attempt to use the Security Council to deny Israel’s right to self-defense.

While the prime minister presented this deal to the security cabinet ministers as a draft still under discussion, debkafile’s sources report that it was finalized with Washington and the negotiations have raced beyond that point and gone a lot deeper into the substance of a peace accord with the Palestinians in the secret round table under the American aegis to which Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan have been co-opted.

These negotiations, still in mid-course, were first revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 469 Nov. 11, together with the issues on the table:

    A. The presence of foreign, namely Jordanian, troops in the Jordan Valley in a deployment that would satisfy Israel’s security requirements and provide a barrier against the smuggling of missiles, other munitions and fighters into the West Bank when it comes under independent Palestinian rule.

    Since 1967, every Israeli government since the 1967 War has stipulated that any peace accord must leave this strip with Israel as its security border to the east. Netanyahu has accepted in principle that the Hashemite Kingdom, for the first time since the Jordanian Army withdrew from the West Bank 43 years ago, would regain a military presence on the both the West and East Banks of the River Jordan.

    B. The Jordanian military’s functions along the Jordan River and on West Bank soil would be governed by agreed rules of conduct. Those rules would extend to other parts of the West Bank where the deployment of foreign forces is under negotiation.

    C. The Israeli settlements in the Jordan Valley would remain in place and continue to develop – on the understanding that after several decades, 30-50 years, their disposal would be renegotiated with the possible option of passing the area to the Palestinian state. This item is still open to discussion.

    D. Israeli Defense Forces positions remaining there for now would be gradually reduced in size and number.

    E. The above provisions would go into effect only after an independent Palestinian state is established.

Debkafile’s Washington sources add that these secret talks have hit a sticking point: The United States and Israel propose that the final borders of a Palestinian state be based on the pre-1967 War boundaries with adjustments dictated by Israel’s security requirements and the demographic changes that have taken place in the territory since then – the main settlement blocs will be part of Israel. The Palestinians stipulate that their state precisely follow the 1967 borders without changes.

It is important to note that the widespread reports of a crisis in US-Israel relations during Netanyahu’s five-day American trip were unfounded.

Belman. Netanyahu always demand our security interests be taken care of. He rarely talked about our rights. This deals reflects that.

    The United States and Israel propose that the final borders of a Palestinian state be based on the pre-1967 War boundaries with adjustments dictated by Israel’s security requirements and the demographic changes that have taken place in the territory since then – the main settlement blocs will be part of Israel.

Thus Netanyahu has agreed to these borders. But the demographic changes they refer to do not include Ariel and Efrat. Not one mention of Jerusalem here or refugees. This deal would require over 100,000 Israelis to be expelled at a cost of over $100 billion. And by the way the extra 20 F-35’s are not free.

Aside from Jerusalem and refugees, nothing is left to negotiate.

Haaretz has two articles discussing thesse matters today but do not comment on the revelations in DEBKA.

What exactly does Obama expect from Netanyahu?

Obama has made an offer Netanyahu can’t refuse

November 15, 2010 | Comments »

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