Peloni: There has been a great deal of talk of defeatism regarding the Iran war of late. John Spencer, a foremost expert on urban warfare, provides a serious, meticulous analysis of various paths which might lead towards victory. In doing so, he makes this notable observation towards the end of this important essay:
“War is not a checklist. It is the alignment of ends, ways, and means under conditions of uncertainty. Options can be sequenced, layered, or applied simultaneously across domains. The United States has not run out of options. It has not even used all of them.”
Make no doubt about it. This war is not over, and victory is closer to us than is defeat, for now in any event.
John Spencer | Urban Warfare | Mar 29, 2026
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The U.S.-Iran war has been underway for 29 days now. It is increasingly difficult to distinguish real strategic and military expertise from politicized opinion, speculation, and narrative. Too many people jump immediately from where we are today to a full-scale ground invasion. They assume the only option is for U.S. forces to seize Tehran, secure nuclear material by force, destroy a supposed million-man army, and then get pulled into another decades-long nation-building effort or fight a Maoist-style insurgency. That is not analysis. That is shallow thinking rooted in outdated and often biased mental models of war.
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