Conflict continues as Iran weighs costs of future US strikes, returning to negotiations – analysis
Peloni: Stopping Iran’s dedication to terror really does come down to American resolve to actually stop Iran. Trump’s continued stated preference for negotiations only serves to provide Iran with the understanding that Trump will ultimately not stop them, that they can simply move the clock forward by alternating periods of negotiations amid periods of breaches of already negotiated agreements, such as having the Strait of Hormuz open. Iran is only emboldened by this fact, as its negotiating govt officials and warring IRGC leaders work together to stall while they make their ultimate ownership of the Strait of Hormuz evident based on facts on the grounds. As Seth Frantzman notes below, alternate routes are already being improvised to work around the use of the Strait, but the reality is that these costly pipelines remain just as vulnerable to Iranian missiles as the Gulf State’s other infrastructure which is already being attacked, making this alternate solution no more secure than shell shocked Strait.
Iran may hint that it is willing to hold talks again and continue to play the “good cop, bad cop” game it has played in the past. The IRGC would act as the bad cop and the government as the good.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN |
Iran firing missiles at Bahrain and Qatar over the weekend. Screengrab via Social Media.
The US has been carrying out strikes in Iran for nine days, including a number of attacks on bridges and tunnels near the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. What comes next in the American conflict with Iran?





Karim Khan, UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0





