Polls: Cruz leading in Wisconsin, closing in California and Pennsylvania

By Sierra Rayne, AMERICAN THINKER

A suite of new polls suggest Ted Cruz may be gaining rapidly on Donald Trump in several key upcoming primary contests.

In Wisconsin, an Emerson poll conducted March 20-22 has Cruz leading Trump by 1%, 36% to 35%. A separate poll taken March 19-20 by the Washington Free Beacon shows Cruz with a 5% lead over Trump, 36% to 31%. Both are significant improvements for Cruz compared to previous polling data from late February, which showed him trailing Trump by 11%.

In California, a Los Angeles Times poll from March 16-23 puts Cruz now in a statistical tie (35% vs. 36%) with Trump, up from trailing Trump by between 5% to 16% in early/mid-March.

While Trump still leads in Pennsylvania, his margin has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks. A Franklin & Marshall poll conducted March 14-20 shows Trump with just a 3% lead over John Kasich (33% to 30%), and a 13% lead over Cruz. Back at the start of the month, Trump held a 19% lead over Cruz and a 26% lead over Kasich.

Polling data expected out this upcoming week should begin to show the impacts of the respective foreign policy choices the candidates are espousing.

In recent interviews with the Washington Post and the New York Times, Trump has articulated what might be considered a more isolationist/libertarian foreign policy that would involve possible large cuts in defense spending, a reduced involvement in geopolitical events, and allowing — potentially even encouraging — nations such as South Korea and Japan to obtain their own nuclear weapons deterrence as a replacement for the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

In contrast, Cruz’s choice of Frank Gaffney and other members of the Center for Security Policy as his key foreign policy team paints a much more traditionally conservative view that would advocate for a continued, or even increased, presence for the U.S. in world affairs coupled to higher levels of defense spending.

A suite of new polls suggest Ted Cruz may be gaining rapidly on Donald Trump in several key upcoming primary contests.

In Wisconsin, an Emerson poll conducted March 20-22 has Cruz leading Trump by 1%, 36% to 35%. A separate poll taken March 19-20 by the Washington Free Beacon shows Cruz with a 5% lead over Trump, 36% to 31%. Both are significant improvements for Cruz compared to previous polling data from late February, which showed him trailing Trump by 11%.

In California, a Los Angeles Times poll from March 16-23 puts Cruz now in a statistical tie (35% vs. 36%) with Trump, up from trailing Trump by between 5% to 16% in early/mid-March.

While Trump still leads in Pennsylvania, his margin has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks. A Franklin & Marshall poll conducted March 14-20 shows Trump with just a 3% lead over John Kasich (33% to 30%), and a 13% lead over Cruz. Back at the start of the month, Trump held a 19% lead over Cruz and a 26% lead over Kasich.

Polling data expected out this upcoming week should begin to show the impacts of the respective foreign policy choices the candidates are espousing.

In recent interviews with the Washington Post and the New York Times, Trump has articulated what might be considered a more isolationist/libertarian foreign policy that would involve possible large cuts in defense spending, a reduced involvement in geopolitical events, and allowing — potentially even encouraging — nations such as South Korea and Japan to obtain their own nuclear weapons deterrence as a replacement for the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

In contrast, Cruz’s choice of Frank Gaffney and other members of the Center for Security Policy as his key foreign policy team paints a much more traditionally conservative view that would advocate for a continued, or even increased, presence for the U.S. in world affairs coupled to higher levels of defense spending.

March 28, 2016 | 49 Comments »

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49 Comments / 49 Comments

  1. This rule is changed every convention. So it will changed this election again. The last time it was tailored so Ron Paul did not get to be nominated on the floor. Romney already had a majority and the GOP wanted to unify around him and not be distracted by Paul.

  2. Pat Caddell: GOP Establishment ‘Using Cruz as Cats-Paw’ to ‘Nominate an Establishment Figure’

    Caddell said the GOP Establishment is “terrified of Trump,” and also opposed to Cruz, because “they are worried about their arrangements being broken up, their power.”

    He said these Establishment politicians would “absolutely” rather lose the 2016 election to Hillary Clinton than win with Trump or Cruz.

    http://www.breitbart.com/radio/2016/03/31/pat-caddell-gop-establishment-will-use-cruz-block-trump-slip-nominee-blow-republican-party/

  3. Cruz talks up an RNC rule that would keep Kasich out of the convention

    In interviews this week, Cruz has repeatedly invoked the RNC’s rule 40b, which allows candidates to be nominated only if they’ve won total delegate majorities in eight states or more.

    In rule 40b, it is not enough for a candidate to have won the popular vote in eight states. He must have won a majority of pledged delegates — …..Trump has crossed that threshold. Cruz has not.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/31/cruz-talks-up-an-rnc-rule-that-would-keep-kasich-out-of-the-convention/

    LOL, Cruz beleives he already satisfied the rule.

  4. Europe’s Muslims hate the West
    http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-attacks-terrorism-europe-muslims-brussels-attacks-airport-metro/

    where did I hear that before?

    Under the plan, tariffs will rise by 45 percentage points, to 49.4 percent, in the first year. But the rate will be scaled back to 39.4 percent in the second year; to 24.4 percent in the third year; to 19.4 percent in the fourth year, and to 14.4 percent in the fifth year, according to the order. After the fifth year the tariff returns to 4.4 percent.

    http://www.nytimes.com/1983/04/02/business/us-raises-tariff-for-motorcycles.html

    Now where did I hear that before?

  5. babushka Said:

    Keep bashing Michelle Fields, Donny! Go for her jugular!! Sic’er, boy!!!

    Ms. Fields, like so many girls I have know, want to play with the boys , but they whines when the boys play rough.
    I have little use for women who use the fact that are women, for special treatment.

  6. babushka Said:

    And while you are at it, continue insisting that women who have abortions should be incarcerated

    You know very well you have m is-quoted Trump and Bear Klein.

  7. Latest State general election poll from REal Clear Politics is consistent with the other polls Kaisch wins. Cruz ties, and Trump gets squashed by Hillary Clinton.

    Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton Marquette Clinton 47, Trump 37 Clinton +10
    Wisconsin: Cruz vs. Clinton Marquette Clinton 44, Cruz 44 Tie
    Wisconsin: Kasich vs. Clinton Marquette Kasich 48, Clinton 39 Kasich +9

  8. Trump has lost 24 points to Cruz in the Reuters National Tracking Poll in 10 days. His 20 point lead is now a 4 point deficit. He has lost 19 points in the last 4 days, and 10 points in the last 2 days.

    http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM764BY15/filters/PARTY_ID_:2

    Keep bashing Michelle Fields, Donny! Go for her jugular!! Sic’er, boy!!!

    And while you are at it, continue insisting that women who have abortions should be incarcerated. That insane shit hasn’t even hit the polling fan yet.

    Trump will not rest until he has 99% disapproval among females. And he is getting closer by the day.

  9. 538.com now forecasts as of this point in time:

    According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 49% chance of winning the California primary.

    Very close between Cruz and Trump. This would squash Trumps ability to get 1237 delegates.

  10. For Donald Trump there is some very basic, very real math between him and the White House. Women generally make up more than half of the U.S. presidential electorate and polls show they don’t really seem to like the Republican frontrunner.

    Negative views of Mr. Trump are hardly news. Overall 64% of Americans had a negative view of the GOP frontrunner in the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, while only 25% had a positive view.

    But among women, those numbers go to 70% negative and 21% positive, as Carrie Dann noted last week.

    http://therightscoop.com/women-pretty-much-hate-donald-trump/#ixzz44Eg3TUAR

    Donald Trump says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iZWFEFwgBw

  11. @ Bear Klein:

    Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results
    New York Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 64, Cruz 12, Kasich 1
    2016 Republican Presidential Nomination Rasmussen Reports Trump 43, Cruz 28, Kasich 21

  12. Bear Klein Said:

    Kasich (has the best chance according to polls) and Cruz has a chance.

    kasich main purpose is to drain Trump votes to ensure Trump does not reach the 1237. Kasich voters are more likely to vote trump than cruz

  13. @ Bear Klein:

    Are you perhaps a cross gender and not just a cross dresser?

    Does the Ed Asner lookalike to whom you are married know that you are online desperately seeking cross genders?

  14. Bear Klein Said:

    Trump can NOT win

    total rubbish… you have bought the fabricated polls about a scenario 9 moths from now without reading all the caveats behind those polls and all the assumptions upon which they are based. I am surprised you are so naive when you can see that the GOP establishment is so frantically afreid of Trump that they had the bush crew back Cruz and want to vote for hillary, when you see the so called gop media attack trump in chorus. do you really beleive that a Conservative like cruz who cant even beat the front runner in hie own party primary can win an election which requires independents and crossovers. Do you really beleive that Cruz has more appeal with those voters than Trump?
    I even read that sanders voters might vote for Trump because some of his policies are closer than hillary. Blue collar union dems would have a hard time voting hillary over trump because she will continue to ship out their jobs… after all she was in the admins who already did that.

  15. Bear Klein Said:

    He is doing polling tricks and you are buying it. He did not reference the poll. The LA Times poll above is the latest and greatest is also on Real Clear Politics.

    first, you obviously never read the articles which showed the polls referenced. Second you also appear not to have read the article on the LA times poll you chose which clearly shows how polling tricks are done and hidden in obfuscations

    Trump, passionately supported and deeply reviled in different corners of the electorate, has extended his reach among Republicans since the last USC/Los Angeles Times poll was taken in September. He now has the support of 37% of GOP voters surveyed, up from 24%.

    Cruz, who was in single digits in the last poll behind candidates who have since left the race, is now at 30%. The third candidate, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, was invisible last September and is now at 12%.

    But among the voters most likely to turn out,[ 😛 😛 😛 ] the poll shows the race between Trump and Cruz is nearly tied, with Trump at 36% versus Cruz at 35%. The difference illustrates how a low turnout in the June 7 primary could hurt Trump and boost Cruz.

    How many Californians will turn out remains hard to predict [ 😛 😛 😛 ] because the state has not seen a fully contested June Republican primary since 1964.

    you also ignored the RCP avg at the top of the list giving trump an 8+ point lead.

    Your superficial posting of polls is very misleading when we know that polls are manipulated and that you must read the fine print. What did they do with the rubio votes.. did they say they wont show up or did they give the votes to Cruz to make the poll look better? You must read in detail or you will look foolish.

  16. Everyone has more credibility than someone either does not know their gender or needs to hide it?

    Is this supposed to be an English sentence, Roseanne? Your feeble attempts at being pejorative would be more effective if you were less illiterate.

    By all means, continue to embarrass yourself with demented ravings in which you pretend to see what people on the Internet are wearing. It is far preferable to the senile lunacy of your ignorant political rants.

    Better yet, if you really want to improve the quality of Israpundit, remove the all keys from your keyboard and swallow them.

  17. @ babushka:Everyone has more credibility than someone either does not know their gender or needs to hide it?

    What is with the cross dressing Danny? You like old ladies clothes. Cross dressing is not normally associated with conservatives. Are you perhaps a cross gender and not just a cross dresser?

  18. @ Keli-A:Cruz could be slime. My wife calls him Icky Cruz.

    However he is conservative. I like his tax plan and ideas on foreign policy. He has a good platform.

    Too many dirty tricks just like the Trumpster does him make not so perfect. He should not have stooped to the dirty tricks. He also does not get all well with others and this is hurting him.

    My candidate is anyone but Hillary or Bernie who can win. Trump can NOT win. Kasich (has the best chance according to polls) and Cruz has a chance.

    Danny (Babushka) is the one hung on voting only for a perfect ideological conservative. Security and fiscal issues are the only conservative issues I care deeply about.

    Have a good day Keli-A! How are the radiation levels today?

  19. Keli-A drunkenly says:

    Cruz is a phony slime conservative his voting record in line with Obama on most issues

    babushka wisely says:

    Please note how few pixels are required for the modesty edit in this photo of K-A.

  20. @ babushka:

    If Trump can get the nomination he will pick up organized labor a key constituent of the Democrats and useful in getting out the vote for past democrats not to mention millions put into campaigns…… Not bad to have on your side.

  21. @ bernard ross:Go to Real Clear Politics for the polls.

    Your poll on the Trump website is the old dated one which favors him not the latest poll. He is doing polling tricks and you are buying it. He did not reference the poll. The LA Times poll above is the latest and greatest is also on Real Clear Politics.

  22. Not all the surveys are trending towards Cruz:

    A poll released Monday by the American Psychiatric Association provides Donald Trump with a commanding lead among registered voters who have been diagnosed as “severely mentally ill”. The survey, conducted March 23-27, reveals that Trump has the support of 99% of those voters who have been incarcerated in facilities for the criminally insane. In an impressive across-the-board display, Trump dominates in all major demographic categories: psychotics, sociopaths, neurotics, schizophrenics, paranoiacs, kleptomaniacs, lycanthropes, and chronic bed wetters

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/07/20/article-1201020-05C84655000005DC-692_468x366.jpg.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVovq9TGBw0

  23. @ Bear Klein:
    I like my poll better than yours and you didnt even post your link. The margin of error is the leeway the pollster has before his results are questioned.. whats the margin of error and who conducted the polls… or perhaps you just like to say “my team is winning”

    BTW did you notice how BB had to back off his second try at getting a Jew convicted of a crime before the investigation even started? I notice that you never reply to my question about why BB always jumps up with his henchman to make sure that the ensuing investigation, indictment, trial and verdict will demononize the jew and confirm his guilt. finally an Israeli, Bennett is asking the same question I have been asking since BB, yaalon, erdan and rivlin jumped up to condemn the Jew in the fake baby burning. didnt it trouble you that he applied the exact same MO again and his only arrogant explanation is that he led more soldiers.
    sorry off topic but I see you use the same techniques here that you use to defend BB.

  24. Bear Klein Said:

    They are also forecasting Cruz winning Wisconsin at 67%

    that was always a given
    Bear Klein Said:

    The trend is now Cruz getting stronger and Trump momentum has stopped.

    yes, thats the narrative that the bought pundits spin

  25. Bear Klein Said:

    This is the latest poll. Cruz and Trump are basically tied as this is within the margin of error.

    LOL, didnt you like my polls?
    http://www.mercurynews.com/politics-government/ci_29678720/poll-trump-jumps-out-big-lead-california-primary
    are you inferring that polls are not infallible and might disagree with each other?
    soon we will see facts, more importantly than polls of voters is how the GOP establishment intends to cheat the primary by stuffing their delegates for the 2nd ballot… that is what will decide the nomination if Trump does not get an outright nomination at 1237 bypassing the cheats. Dont delude yourself with polls: there is no possible way that cruz can appeal to anyone outside the GOP conservative block, unlike Trump who already has a large following of independents like myself who vote in neither primary.
    LOL, you like to play this game of “you post your poll and I post mine”… as if polls will decide the outcome. Of course that is the exact agenda of those GOP establishment folks seeking to derail the donald.

  26. 538.com is now forecasting the following:

    According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 50% chance of winning the California primary.

    This means it is very tight.

    They are also forecasting Cruz winning Wisconsin at 67% chance to win. A bit better but not yet overwhelming for Cruz.

    The trend is now Cruz getting stronger and Trump momentum has stopped.

  27. babushka Said:

    but you are flailing in your attempt to conflate a liberal bum with a conservative hero.

    thats why I dont vote for ideologues whether conservative or socialist… they cant make rational decisions unless their “bible” shows them the way.
    which definition of “bum” were you referring to when you said “liberal bum”. were you referring to roseanne barr’s fat ass or rosie macdonnels fat pig? Next you will be echoing epithets like “bimbo” when referring to skirt hikers purporting to deliver news. where will it end?

  28. Sunday, March 27
    Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
    California Republican Presidential Primary LA Times Trump 36, Cruz 35, Kasich 14, Rubio Trump +1

    This is the latest poll. Cruz and Trump are basically tied as this is within the margin of error.

    Trump can not get to 1237 delegates unless he gets about 2/3rds of California delegates. At best here he would get maybe a third.

  29. babushka Said:

    it is encouraging to see the polls edging in the direction of Truth/Justice/The American Way,

    I note that you use the same video editing techniques of Hamas. Hardly a convincing presentation. The one thing that you repeatedly demonstrate is that your only MO to stall Trump is defamation of him or his supporters; just like the techniques of the liberals and Israel defamers… which is why your GOP establishment would so readily vote for Hillary over Trump.

  30. POLL: TRUMP JUMPS OUT TO BIG LEAD IN CALIFORNIA PRIMARY
    http://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/poll-trump-jumps-out-to-big-lead-in-california-primary
    CALIFORNIA POLL: TRUMP LEADS GOP; CLINTON, SANDERS CLOSE
    http://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/california-poll-trump-leads-gop-clinton-sanders-close-read-more-http-www.po
    Breaking News: The ‘Mistress Crisis’ Scandal
    https://elgross.biz/US/today-s-interests/23-smoking-gun-sex-financial-pac-scandal-questions-for-ted-cruz.html

  31. Most rational choice of delegates would be vote for Cruz or Kasich to be nominee.

    Nice try, Roseanne, but you are flailing in your attempt to conflate a liberal bum with a conservative hero. Rational delegates will not support your open borders, pro-Obamacare, welfare state Establishment hack who has endorsed a leftist for the Supreme Court and says he will consider a Democrat as his running mate.

    You obviously identify with Kasich because he is insufferably dishonorable, but he has won ONE contest. That is only one more than Lindsay Graham, only one more than Bobby Jindal, only one more than Chris Christie. Hell, it only one more than Crispus Attucks, and he is dead.

    Kasich is the candidate for pseudo Republicans who want liberal governance with GOP camouflage, whereas Cruz is the candidate for people of infinite virtue and fresh minty breath. No coherent human chooses the Bay City Rollers when the Beatles are right there for the taking.

    However, I am always striving to maintain the spirit of comity, so here you go:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRLrZ66bwPQ

  32. Trump will not get 1237 delegates so he will not get first ballot win. Most rational choice of delegates would be vote for Cruz or Kasich to be nominee on a subsequent ballot.

    They have a better chance than Trump to be President. Trump has historically high negatives and polls indicate he would get slaughtered in a general election.

  33. A fleeting perusal of the video posted above reinforces what has long been painfully obvious: the Trump Cult is like a meeting of ASNEM.

    You know what ASNEM is, don’t you?

    It is the exact opposite of MENSA.

  34. While it is encouraging to see the polls edging in the direction of Truth/Justice/The American Way, we must brace ourselves against disappointment because the Malign Forces Of Trailer Trash could still prevail. The haunting aspect is that Cruz would already have the requisite 1237 delegates….if only the commmies had not fluoridated the drinking water:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84RldfG1MQo