Rasmussen Poll: Trump 43%, Clinton 39%


The latest Rasmussen Reports 2016 presidential poll:

The tables have turned in this week’s White House Watch. After trailing Hillary Clinton by five points for the prior two weeks, Donald Trump has now taken a four-point lead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week at this time, it was Clinton 44%, Trump 39%. This is Trump’s highest level of support in Rasmussen Reports’ matchups with Clinton since last October. His support has been hovering around the 40% mark since April, but it remains to be seen whether he’s just having a good week or this actually represents a real move forward among voters.

Trump now earns 75% support among his fellow Republicans and picks up 14% of the Democratic vote. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats like Clinton, as do 10% of GOP voters. Both candidates face a sizable number of potential defections because of unhappiness with them in their own parties.

Full article here.

June 30, 2016 | 4 Comments »

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  1. Today’s doings with Obama’s attorney general significantly increases probability that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation will press for indictment of Hillary Clinton for violations of Federal laws pertaining to her handling of her official email in her own private home computer, with now-great likelihood that thousands of those emails have been broken into and read by intelligence agencies of Russia, China, and — reportedly — Israel. That’s part one.

    Part two probably could be charges against both Hillary and Bill Clinton for their use of the Clinton Foundation to peddle influence on behalf of foreign countries which paid them for these services but for which neither they nor anyone else in their foundation registered as foreign agents.

    If and when any of the above moves from expectation to fact, it is difficult to imagine Mrs Clinton remaining in place as the Democratic Party nominee for national election to the Presidency of the United States of America. If so, Bernie Sanders may well be expected to take her place.

    As for the poll cited above: Rasmussen Polls, having learned from past mistakes, is now careful to focus on Americans who declare themselves either likely or certain to vote.

    Trump is sounding and acting a lot more presidential these days, and is now careful to think out and carefully read prepared policy position papers through use of teleprompters. Even the otherwise anti-Trump New York Times gave him a surprisingly good review for his recent economic policy statement in an important address he made earlier this week.

    And well in time for the Republican National Convention later this month, he will have made a careful choice of vice-presidential candidates. The likelihood is that he will pick a VP from among those with heavy-duty US Congressional experience, such as Newt Gingrich, who if compared with Paul Ryan, would seem like an Everest, K2, or Denali, compared with some undistinguished Strawberry Hill of my native Upper Midwest.

    Arnold Harris, Outspeaker

  2. Trump can still win.
    per Nate Silver

    Nate: I’m sort of annoyed by it being 80 percent, because I feel like that’s the number people most misinterpret. When you say 80 percent, people take that to mean “really, really certain.” It’s not, particularly.

    David: I liked your ballgame analogy, Nate, in the article you wrote to accompany the forecast. Teams come back from 20-percent-win situations frequently. In fact, about 20 percent of the time!

    Nate: Absolutely amazing how that works! http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/an-80-percent-shot-doesnt-mean-clinton-is-a-sure-thing/

  3. First forecast for Nate Silver of 538.com of the 2016 general election. He correctly forecast the 2012 in all states and called I believe 52 of the 58 primaries correctly. He is widely considered the best of all the political forecasters because of their statistical models combined with their methodology. They will be updating this continuously as new data comes in.

    Chance of winning

    Hillary Clinton


    Donald Trump


    Electoral votes

    Hillary Clinton


    Donald Trump


    Gary Johnson

    Popular vote

    Hillary Clinton


    Donald Trump


    Gary Johnson


    If one is interested they explain the methodology in great detail and there is an article also. There are still many undecided. For Trump to win he will need to get their votes.