T. Belman. This article was posted by Debka yesterday. Late yesterday the US and Russia announced the ceasefire deal to take effect on Feb 27. But the deal is very complicated and many sides are not happy with it.
Today, Syria accepts ceasefire. ISIS and the al-Nusra Front remain fair game to both sides.
DEBKA Feb 22/16
President Vladimir Putin this week mounted a rescue operation to unsnarl his blueprint for a solution of the Syrian crisis from the blockage placed in its path by none other than Bashar Assad. The Syrian ruler won’t hear of Moscow’s proposals for ending the war, or even the cessation of hostilities approved last week in Munich by the 17-member Syria Support Group.
DEBKAfile reports that the strains between Moscow and Damascus this week have blown back onto the working relations between the Russian, Syrian and Iranian military commands running the war in Syria.
US Secretary of State John Kerry, referring to the lack of progress toward a ceasefire during a visit to Amman Sunday, Feb. 21, pointed mainly at the Syrian opposition. Its High Negotiations Committee insists first on an end to the sieges, a halt on Russian bombardment and the inclusion of the jihadist Nusra Front in the ceasefire.
But, according to our sources, the main monkey wrench has been thrown into the mix by Assad.
When Putin discovered that the Syrian ruler had won the secret backing of Tehran in h is refusal, he decided to send the supreme commander of the Russian campaign in Syria, Defense Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu, to Tehran Sunday, Feb. 21, with a personal message for President Hassan Rouhani.
Gen. Shoigu laid before Rouhani the extent to which Russian intervention had turned the tide of the Syrian war in favor of the regime, and the great advantages of a political resolution that would end the conflict in a way that enhanced Russian and Iranian influence in the region to the maximum.
The Russian general stressed that at the end of the proposed political process, Assad would be required to step down. This concurrence was incorporated in the Putin-Obama deal for working together to solve the Syrian crisis.
But Rouhani was unmoved, according to the statement he issued at the end of the interview.
“The crisis in Syria can only be solved through political negotiation and respect for the rights of the country’s government and people, who are those taking the final decision regarding its future,” he said.
This was taken in Moscow as Iran’s rejection of at least one element of the Putin plan – imposing a solution on Assad – but not the plan in its entirety. This qualified response was meant to nudge Moscow closer to Teheran and Moscow and pull away from Washington.
The Shoigu mission therefore did not lessen the strains between Russia, Iran and Assad – at least for now, according to DEBKAfile’s sources.
Although all the parties concerned agree that the war must be ended by political means, those means are the subject of controversy between Moscow and its allies. The Russians are seeking a staged advance towards the final goal by first scaling down military operations, the while gradually refocusing their efforts on political and diplomatic arrangements.
But Syrian and Iranian leaders want to keep the focus on the military course.
Moscow wants the Assad regime to make concessions for paving the way to a cease-fire, and to accept a transitional government taking over in Damascus with representation for the opposition. The Syrian dictator would then gradually transfer his powers to the stand-ins as they assume responsibility for the various branches of government.
But both Assad and Tehran are adamantly opposed to a transitional government being installed – or any other political steps being pursued – before the rebel forces are totally defeated in non-stop military operations – first in the north and then in the south.
Neither the Syrian ruler nor Iran show any sign of relenting, or appreciating that the dramatic progress achieved in the past month by Syrian army, Iranian and Hizballah forces were down to Russian military support and especially its air campaign against their enemies. They feel safe in their intransigence because they assume that Putin can’t afford to abruptly pull his military support from under their feet to make them bow to his demands.
After five months in which Moscow and the Russian air force have provided the Iranian leadership and Assad with signal victories on the ground, President Putin has been brought up short by the same Iranian-Syrian negative obstructionism, that has defied every effort to end the brutal five-year war, which has cost 470,000 lives, left 1.9 million injured, displaced half the country’s population of 23 million and left a Syria ravaged beyond recognition.
There will be no cease-fire. Al Nusra and ISIS are the two largest groups fighting Assad and Company.
Looks like the destabilization MO is about to move into Lebanon.
I smell a rat brewing….
Israel should make it clear that hezbullah approaching the border would be a violation of the truce. Israel should be ready to go in to secure the buffer zone that was to be demilitarized in the treaty. The russians and americans appear to be untrustworthy in their treatment of Israel
Putin can easily pull an “Iranian rug” from under Iran and Syria. Just a little earthquake as a warning shot!
Putin is not Obama. He owns Russia the same way Al Capone owned Chicago. He isn’t going to allow any sandniggers or scrofulous old ghouls draped in unsanitary gowns frustrate his plans of expanding into the Syrian and Lebanese territories.
So watch out for car “accidents” and other mysterious deaths of all of Putin’s opponents. This should fun!