Tehran breathes sigh of relief as deal talks resume

The US erred when it did not establish clear red lines for negotiations with Iran regarding the timeframe – after all, Iranians are known as “champions” in procrastination and stalling.

by  Prof. Eyal Zisser | Published on  04-27-2025

The attack has been postponed but it will surely come – this is what Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri promised last week, even threatening that this attack would be more painful than its predecessors and cause heavy damage and casualties.

The Iranian chief of staff was not referring, of course, to the planned Israeli attack on Iran, which, according to media reports, President Donald Trump blocked, but rather to an Iranian attack against Israel, the third of its kind, following the two that preceded it in April and October 2024. Such an attack, according to the senior Iranian official, will come – it’s only a matter of time.

But statements are one thing and actions another. Meanwhile, Iran and the US are competing with each other in spreading not-at-all-cautious optimism regarding progress in talks they have begun to hold in an effort to reach a new nuclear deal between them. Though the talks are in their early stages, the enthusiasm of the parties knows no bounds, and they seem determined to reach an agreement. And when rushing all the way to an agreement, they might end up actually reaching one.

The US erred when it did not establish clear red lines for negotiations with Iran regarding the timeframe – after all, Iranians are known as “champions” in procrastination and stalling – and more seriously, also failed to do so regarding the issues at hand. For example, it turns out that questions such as Iranian support for their terror proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, as well as their long-range missile project, some of which already reach the heart of Europe, are not even on the agenda. Perhaps the Americans hope that an agreement with Iran, if reached, will turn the Iranians into peace seekers. But if that’s what they think, they still haven’t understood the true nature of the ayatollah regime, 40 years after it seized power in Tehran.

The collapse of the previous nuclear deal in 2015 allowed the Iranians to become a nuclear threshold state, with knowledge and capabilities, facilities and equipment that will enable them to produce nuclear weapons within a short time – a few months, or at most a few years. The Iranians don’t need more than that, so there is no urgency in Tehran to move toward a nuclear weapon, thereby arousing the entire world against them. Therefore, the Iranian goal is to preserve the status quo as much as possible, and for that purpose, Tehran is willing to show far-reaching flexibility, commit that Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb, and even give up some of the enriched uranium in its possession.

After all, any agreement is just a piece of paper that can be violated in a few years, after Trump leaves the White House or when the regional and international reality changes. Therefore, it’s possible to discuss and talk about any agreement that doesn’t require Iran to give up what it has – not its regional proxies, not its military projects and missile arsenal, and also not its nuclear research infrastructure.

In Tehran, there is serious concern for the future of the ayatollah regime. The economic situation is deteriorating, and suppressed domestic protests are erupting above the surface. A war between Iran and the US and Israel, if it breaks out, could prove to be the final nail in the coffin of this extremist regime. Iran needs an agreement like air to breathe, but it plays its cards well. The Iranians are masters of negotiation, which is why the media portrays the Americans as the ones eager to reach an agreement.

It’s possible that the leaks from Washington about Trump blocking an Israeli attack on Iran are a signal to the Iranians that the American administration is interested in reaching an agreement with them. But in the Middle East, and not only there, unlike the Wall Street stock exchange, the rule is that when you draw a gun, it’s better to fire it, otherwise no one will take you seriously.

Meanwhile, the Americans are striking the Houthis in Yemen, but that’s a weak enemy with limited response capability. Iran is a different story, and the Americans know that. The problem is that those who don’t address the Iranian threat today will face a much more dangerous threat in the future.