By Ted Belman
PM Netanyahu talks of a new “political horizon”. And then we read Saudis are pushing for peace. Lapid informed the international press, Netanyahu hints he will agree to convene regional peace conference.
Yesterday I brought these events to the attention of a longtime US intelligence officer whose work involved Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states. His contacts in Saudi Arabia are numorous.
What are chances of Saudis making a better offer to Israel? Would they be willing to agree to a peace agreement with Israel in which Israel kept half of Area C so that Israel would remain on the Jordan and would not have to uproot 150,000 Jews?
he replied:
In short form the Saudi peace plan is more complicated than stated in the article. It says that when Israel satisfies ALL the actors on ALL CONDITIONS then the Arab League will consider (and the operational word is “consider”) normalization. These conditions include water rights, oil drilling economic area designations, etc. etc.
The Saudis will never make a proposal of their own officially. What they will say is whatever the Palestinians are satisfied with they will support. Whenever they go back channel it is to elicit a counteroffer which they then use as your starting point for the next round of negotiations. They, for years ,have recognized the Shite problem and are willing to work back channel on shared interests.
The royal family is a complex amalgamation. There is much tug of war between various interests. There is a lot of give-and-take. There are many radically conflicting viewpoints. Anyone who pretends to understand this system or to make predictions is a charlatan and a fraud. Directly answering : What is the chance of the Saudis making a better offer to Israel? I believe that the Saudis may put a lot of stuff on the table for discussion but no offer will ever be binding. For the Saudis to make any concession would open them up to the accusation that they sold out.
I also addressed the question of Palestinian casualties in the rest of the Arab world. Frankly they don’t give a damn. In Syria more Syrian troops have been executed this year by the rebels than total Palestinian casualties. In Iraq the number of Shiite Iraqi soldiers and military cadets that have been executed this year also exceeds the total number of Palestinian casualties. Also think Pakistan, Egypt, Lebanon, etc. The Kuwaitis hate the Palestinians.
I read Saudis are pushing for peace. in detail. Thank you for sending it. I do not believe that the writer offers any realistic insights.
I replied:
I am aware that the original offer as amended by the OIC said that if Israel did everything required, then a peace agreement would be considered. That’s far from a commitment.
What with article and netanyahu talking about a new political horizon, one would think that something is in the works regarding a settlement, but Israel will never agree to 67 lines plus swaps.
To which he replied:
Some years ago when I had influence I advised on negotiations. I suggested “sincere” and “dedicated” negotiations “in good faith”… GET CLOSE, BUT NEVER CLOSE THE DEAL… but maintain the power to enforce the outcomes that you desire.
The team assigned had to believe that they were given the charter to succeed. Otherwise, they could not play the game. In reality their mission was to block the play of the other team and to hold the game at midfield.
At a certain point, we would put in a new US team. The Soviets played a similar game.
We each would start off at our end of the table. After a while, we would get to the middle of the table.
They would put in a new team and the new team would call the position at the middle of the table the “American position“ and they would demand that we restart negotiations from there . ( This is similar to the Palestinian authority demands concerning various Israeli conditional offers.) Then the Soviets would reverse back to their original position at their end of the table. In American football terms this would mean that they were starting at the 50 yard line and driving toward our goal line, rather than starting at their original goal line.
Then after stalemate was achieved this deal would be settled at the top.
Our back channel dealings with the Iranians were educational. We got our clock cleaned. They know every trick in the book and then some. Rouhani brags about his efforts publicly. Unfortunately, what I have learned is that we never learn.
If I were to advise Israel I would advise that Israel go back channel to stall for time with the Obama administration.
Meantime , I would take piecemeal actions on the ground which would effectively incorporate all of the settlements that by any agreement will be part of Israel, officially into Israel. Unfortunately, the Israeli bureaucracy talks too damn much and has too many formal procedures each of which draws worldwide condemnation. Thus Israel takes 1000 wounds on their way to accomplishing any action. Here, plausible public deniability while creating new facts on the ground is a key to international success.
Publicly, I would talk about the settlers becoming citizens and taxpayers of the new Palestinian state and having the same rights as Arabs in Israel. I would talk about business investments, courts, legal and physical protection, etc.
I would enthusiastically paint the utopia that could and would exist if the Palestinians were like the Israelis. (But they are not so I would not buy into the dream… However, I would express the dream as my objective … as the utopia we are all trying to achieve.)
in the meantime I would propose a customs and duty-free union between Israel, Jordan, Egypt and propose that Gaza and Lebanon be included if and when they decide to join. I would seek alliances with Greek Cyprus and the Kurds. I would propose back channel joint scientific efforts with Egypt and Saudi Arabia on such areas as energy, water, agriculture, etc.
I would also have a very bright and sincere guy in Israel named Ted Belman focus on producing educational materials to be used by Jewish and general publications throughout the world. Some topics would include the demographics of Israel and the West Bank — To forever destroy the self-induced pressure that demographics is against Israel and Israel better settle before Jews become a minority between the ocean and sea.
And on the Jews’ historical claims for “close settlement” in Jordan, the West Bank and all of Israel. The right of “close settlement” for Jews is not an Israeli right… It is an international Jewish right that cannot be given up by any political sovereignty such as the state of Israel.
I would, in addition to focusing on the right of close settlement for Jews on the West Bank, discuss
the difference between sovereignty, and land ownership and the legacy of Nazi Germany and the mufti in the demand that the Palestinians state be Jew free.
I think a key to your success is to enlist Christian supporters with the sufficient credentials as the nominal authors to present these materials. I’ve seen a lot of materials on these subjects that would be useful but I have not seen any simple, effective presentations that will be suitable for publication in various Jewish and general publications.
if you wonder what we are working on, here is a small sample. The United States faces substantial military, political, and economic challenges.
China is developing a white water Navy and tremendous cyber, missile and space capabilities. They are pushing on Japan, the Philippines, Viet Nam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc.
Pakistan is extremely unstable. Afghanistan is a failed state and is deteriorating rapidly.
Sweden, Norway, Germany, France, etc. are probably lost to the West.
Russia is returning to its expansionist past.
Iran’s program is to dominate the world’s petroleum shipping routes and expand its influence throughout the Middle East as well as worldwide. It is developing a protective shield for its nuclear program. Is not interested in one nuclear weapon since if it announces one weapon, then there is incentive to take it out. However, if ithey 1st developed a protective shield and then develop nuclear weapons they will achieve the predominance bargaining position in the Middle East. If the current regime were to be be overthrown, then Israel would be in danger of the falling regime taking out Israel to gain recognition in the Islamic world for ever.
Then there is electromagnetic pulse capabilities. The ability to enter and destroy complex information/communication networks. The ability to perform local acts of terror with jihadists who are locally positioned. Etc. etc.
it is amazing that with all hell breaking loose all over the world that Obama and Kerry are placing so much focus is so much pressure on Israel.
To which I replied:
You might be interested in this famous article.
I recently wrote the following to an associate dealing with US expectations of us.
I a recent interview Inkyk said:
In the interview with Foreign Policy magazine, he characterizes harsh Israeli criticism from its political Right “hubris,” contributing to a “bubble of illusion” that the Jewish state is not reliant on the US.
That goes to the crux. We Israelis don’t know our place.
Thank you.
these christian supporters have already enlisted themselves and conducting their own campaigns in support of Israel quite successfully.
the problem is not the enlistment of others to present arguments to others: the problem is the Jews and most especially the Israeli jews. It appears that unity of the jews only appears in those moments of great existential war and danger. why expect the world and diaspora Jews to be more Catholic than the Pope. Israel Jews appear to be incredibly divided as much as Israeli arabs and Jews are. the leftist seculars and the religious extremist both agree that Israel is wrong. Until Israel agrees on what it wants of Eretz Yisroel we must expect the foreigners to push for any agreement to end the conflict. The foreigners seek agreement at any price and so do many Israelis like Livni and the further left. The foreigners seek resolution and the easiest is that which many Israelis already espouse. There is no common Israeli position on borders, settlements or Jewish rights of settlement which is why there is also no position put forward at peace talks. there is only a struggle to maintain a status quo.
I have come to the conclusion that BB never specifically specifies his platform wrt YS because he doesn’t know what it is. He is trying to satisfy a majority of Israelis and the arabs. it is a matter of what most Israelis will accept rather than any principles or land. Tel aviv is probably not interested in YS or settlers and likely not in protecting the rights of world Jews to settle in the mandate territory.
Israel has allowed the world to confuse Israel’s state sovereign rights and obligations with those of the Jewish people. It has assumed the role of agent of world Jewry who have legal rights to settle in YS and yet has obstructed those rights and squandered those rights.
Why did it do this? It did not want to rule the arabs, transfer them, etc. therefore, Israel had a conflict of interest in its legal obligations of assuming the agency and criminally squandered the interests and rights of world Jewry in YS by making those rights subordinate to its perceived state interests. In this scenario Israel has other and better choices which would promote its own self interested perceptions without swindling world Jewry of its rights in YS.
It could have stated its boundaries as a state at the green line but maintained administrative control over the whole territory or even just C as a successor to the British mandate rather than as an agent of the jewish people which it has never fulfilled. It could have facilitated settlement under the continuing rights of world Jewry, settling Jews as mandated in the vacant lands of C maintaining the original mandate goals and allowing the residents of C to self determination at the same time of eschewing any future claim of YS to Israeli sovereignty. At a future date it could conduct a poll for self determination of C which could then choose to be its own state or to or choose to annex itself to israel. Certainly it has proven it does not want these lands so it is only there to protect its state interests while squandering Jewish rights. it could claim to be the only entity that could effectively protect the remaining rights of world Jewry to immigrate and settle in YS. To maintain a clear line between Israels rights and Jews rights it could bar Israeli settlement of its citizens but continue to facilitate the immigration and settlement of diaspora Jews.
Even if it were to act as a successor to the british mandate it has operated to swindle the beneficiary of the mandate just as did the British mandate. As an non successor administrator of YS who does not claim YS for itself it still has the same legal obligations that the British mandate had. If it wishes to leave YS and not protect the rights of the Jewish people it should at least set up a situation in conjunction with world jewry that will protect those rights even after Israels abandonment of those rights.
I believe the words in bold are accurate and US judgement in the ME has not proven successful. although stalling for time is a good approach there is a very negative effect which has grown out of this paradigm if it is not accompanied with other pro active policies.
One of the problems with false public profiling when done over many years is that it can result in your own citizens being brainwashed. E.G. the concept of not asserting the legal rights of Jewish settlement and not educating the population of Israels obligations, as the agent of the Jewish people, to protect those rights, coupled with a defacto narrative borne of negligence that the vacant land of YS belongs to the faux pal people………we now have a brainwashed population which appears to have accepted the pal narrative wrt land and only sees it all as a practical issue of security and the inconvenience of removing settlers.
I dont expect this “political horizon” to emerge in any major overt overall “peace” deals in the short term. I believe that it is a short term, pay as you go, set of understandings regarding covert cooperation on a piece by piece, issue by issue basis with the saudis.
I think the GCC want a a situation where the arab Israel conflict ceases to be a thorn in their interests. to that end I believe that they cooperated with Israel at POD, in Syria and Gaza, over the Iran issue and its proxies. I believe there was cooperation in the “peace” talks because I also believe the talks were never meant to end in a deal, that they were meant to take the pal issue of the table to allow recruitment of Jihadis in the GCC war against Irans proxies. I believe that the non attacks on Israel by the assembled jihadis in syria were the result of those understandings.
As for the future I expect to see little in overt deals but bits and pieces on the ground. the Saudis appear to be winding down their jew hatred in their controlled media. I expect that they are moving to slowly convert their street over years. However, this is unstable and can change at any moment.
In saying that “Israel will never agree to 67 lines with swaps”, I don’t see where this view is derived from as it appears to me to be a popular Israeli position. I expect the land situation to emerge as a de facto situation rather than a deal as this enables all parties to avoid the fallout of any deal from their various constituencies. I get the impression that if Israel were to annex E1 and the major settlement blocks without swaps that this would be considered by the Israeli public to be a good deal. Also, the Jordan valley is being presented in Israel as a security issue as opposed to a land dispute and therefore I ultimately expect a long term withdrawal of forces from this area over a ten year period because Israel never seems to want the land.
None of this has anything to do with what I would like to see take place but it appears to me the most likely situation based on Israels NON claims, or even expressed desire, for land in YS beyond the existent major blocks.
I suspect that BB believes that he can obtain more than the existent annexed areas by proceeding under the table in a defacto manner with the saudis assent as it is likely the saudis dont give a damn about the pals.
@ honeybee:
And the male negotiator must make sure the end product of the negotiation [when delivered] is of such a high quality so that future negotiations will not be necessary. Entiende, Cowboy !!!!!!!!!!!
@ yamit82:
Not to sound manilative and all. The best part of negotiations is havin my opponent scramble for something I wanted all along. But that’s a female secret, don’t tell.
@ yamit82:
Isn’t that the nature of negotiations, discovery our opponents weaknesses !!!!!!!!!!!
honeybee Said:
🙁
yamit82 Said:
But Oh so effective !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
honeybee Said:
In such negotiations the woman controls what’s most important for the men. Denial of conjugal rights. Unfair I say, unfair!!!! 😛
Repost!! I posted this last week on another thread. It upset many in Israel especially on the Left.
The U.S.-Israel Relationship Arrives at a Moment of Reckoning
An exclusive talk with former U.S. Special Envoy Martin Indyk on Israel’s new allies, the Gaza blowup, and why Washington shrugged when the peace process collapsed.
yamit82 Said:
Sounds like marriage !!!!!!!!!! Life my Dear Yamit82 is a bazaar, always the sum of one’s negotiations.
Anyone contemplating agreements with any of the counties in the ME need just review recent past and current events in the ME and draw the necessary conclusions. There is not a single stable country in the region either politically and economically to base any reasonable or rational bilateral agreement with. In a year or two or three they probably won’t exist, at least not in their current formations with existing leadership and that includes Egypt and the Saudis.
Syria, Iraq and Lebanon already are non States and Jordan and the Saudis may follow sooner than later. In three years I expect the Iranians to be a declared nuclear State and not just a threshold one.
Russia and Ukraine are potentially more dangerous than any concerning Israel and her neighbors.
Were Israel to cease it’s economical support for Abbas and Gaza they both will immediately collapse.
The 50 day Gaza conflict has shown that America, the EU and the UN are all impotent to impose what we will not agree to.
American influence and power in the ME has been it’s ability to control Israel and deny Israel complete military victories against Arab aggression. Sans that influence America has little influence with Arab regimes who are not dependent on the West and America in particular.
America today is immune from energy blackmail by Arab produces as they were in 1973 and the Arabs need to sell every drop of oil they can to meet their ever growing expenditure requirements mainly booming expansion of populations. In only 4-5 years America will not only be energy independent but a major exporter and threaten not only ME producers but the price of oil downward as well. Arab regimes understand the threat as well.
They are all threatened not just by Shia Iran but but radical Sunni Jihadists and without the American and Nato defensive umbrella they are all shaking in their robes.
Israel should move with extreme caution, holding on to what we have and strengthening our defensive and offensive positions on all fronts and if that means reducing the economic individual and corporate economic level of growth and profit then bite the bullet for a few years till the dust settles in the region.
My concept is to employ the famous rope a dope tactic.
Negotiating in the bazaar By MOSHE SHARON
Here are the Ten Rules for Negotiations in the Middle Eastern bazaar:
Never suggest anything to the other side. Let the other side present its suggestions first.
Always reject; disagree. Use the phrase “doesn’t meet our minimum demands,” and walk away, even 100 times. The tough customers get the good prices.
Don’t be hasty to come up with counter-offers. There will always be time for that. Let the other side make amendments under pressure of your total “disappointment.” Patience is the name of the game: “Haste is from Satan!”
Have your own plan ready in full, as detailed as possible, with the “red lines” completely defined. Weigh the other side’s suggestions against this plan.
Never change your detailed plan to meet the other side “half-way.” Remember, there is no “half-way.” The other side also has a master plan. Be ready to quit negotiations when you encounter stubbornness on the other side.
Never leave things unclear. Always avoid “creative phrasing” and “creative ideas” – which are exactly what your Arab opponent wants. Remember that the Arabs are masters of language, and playing with words is the Arab national sport.
As in the bazaar, always talk dollars and cents.
Always bear in mind that the other side will try to outsmart you by portraying major issues as unimportant details. Treat every detail as vitally important.
Emotion belongs neither in the market nor at the negotiating table. Friendly words, outbursts of anger, holding hands, kissing, touching cheeks and embracing should not be taken to represent policy.
Beware of popular beliefs about the Arabs and the Middle East – e.g., “Arab honor.” Never do or say anything because somebody told you it is “the custom.” If the Arab side finds out you are playing the anthropologist, it will take advantage.
Always remember that the goal of all negotiations is to make a profit, and aim at making the biggest profit in real terms. Remember that every gain is an asset for the future, because there is always likely to be “another round.” The Arabs have been practicing negotiating tactics for more than 2,000 years.
By contrast, the Israelis, and Westerners in general, want “quick results.” In this part of the world, there are no quick results. He who is hasty always loses.
Netanyahu is correct. Please give credit when credit is due… There is a new political horizon.
One without Netanyahu and his ilk.
That troupe is deadly to the Jewish people.
PROMISES by Netanyahu. How many of those worthless piles has the Netanyahu issued during the last years?