By Ted Belman
The Left describes this move in the most vile terms. It is nothing of the sort. Bibi merely did what he is entitled to do. He opted in effect to strengthen his coalition so that it could survive for another year.
I see nothing untoward in this. I do see an opportunity that previous coalitions have never had and that is to make fundamental change to Israel’s form of government; perhaps even pass a constitution and lessen the power of the Attorney General and the Supreme Court.
The first test will be Ulpana. Bibi just authorized his Cabinet to draft legislation for this kind of problem. Good. This is a move to the right. The legislation will deal with the issue of “private Palestinian land”.
The second test will be replacing the Tal Law with a better law. The Hereidim and the Arabs must shoulder a larger National burden.
Mofaz wants to keep a united Jerusalem and all the settlement blocks including Maaleh Adumin and Ariel. I see no chance at all in getting the Palestinians to agree. So no danger there either.
Only good can come of this.
The criminal attorney general that indicts rightwingers to keep them from pursuing political policies they disapprove of should be cut down to size or maybe something entirely different should be put in its place.
Of course, the problem with the upcoming Iranian nuclear bomb casts doubt on Israel’s survival next year — not just Bibi’s tenure in office.
Here’s a much better litmus test to use to judge Bibi’s new gambit – one surprisingly omitted by Belman. If Obama wins reelection and Israel hasn’t attacked Iran by year end, not only will Netanyahu & Co. be declared a historic failure, the Zionist enterprise will be declared a failure too.
@ David Chase:
@ David Chase:
Just as a continuation of the previous thoughts I think that if the Haredim were to enter the army it could also be considered a sensible and realistic opportunity to learn a trade or an employable skill lthat they could take with them after the army with which to enter the workforce. They would not have to subvert their beliefs opposed to secular education and they could learn a respectable trade. it would be like vocational training. As soldiers in the army they would get the regular pay and the free additional training This would enhance their ability to earn a living to support a family after army service Should they “choose” to sit and learn after their army service and training that would be their right as free citizens in a free country. When the Republicans in the US in 1996 changed Welfare to Welfare to Work with Democrat Bill Clinton’s signature (Contract with America) people who were trapped on welfare were offered five years of continued help while they received various forms of vocational training. Eventually, millions went off Welfare and started receiving paychecks not to mention the dignity that goes with it. It also saved billions and contributed greatly to the balanced budget and surplus that America saw at the end of the 1990’s. I think the analogy hpere is self-evident. It would be a clear win-win result.
@ yamit82:
This is a G-d given right and needs no apology.
This is not an American affair.
@ yamit82:
I agree with you. Entrance of the hareidim in the army WILL make the army and the whole of Israeli society more sensitive to religious needs and more of a Jewish state. So besides integrating the hareidim into the larger society and sharing a greater part they will effectively be more positive Jewish influences all around- both in the Army and, if they follow that up in the workforce, in the general society also. In a previous comment I said that to help self-motivate hareidim to “want” to serve there should be senstivity on the part of the army. That sensitivity will tranform the whole army into a better society. Ironically, by changing the Tal Law the hareidim may actually have a greater Jewish influence than they might by simply sitting and learning. They should embrace the opportunity.
@ Ted Belman:
Yariv Levin
New law protects democracy
Op-ed: The only undemocratic aspect of Boycott Law is opposition’s attempt to thwart it
New Bill Promotes Checks & Balances for Supreme Court
Likud MK: Why are We Apologizing?
Likud MK Yariv Levin doesn’t understand why PM Netanyahu apologized to the US over construction in Jerusalem.
@ yamit82:
What do you know about MK Yariv Levin. He spoke in Hebrew at a conference I attended this year and I was very impressed. Could you find some articles he’s written in Hebrew or speeches or articles aboput him. I’d like to read them in English.
deborah lurya Said:
Israeli author Zvika Amit describes a coup d’état by national-religious extremists in his novel Code Blue. Before the dream of a Jewish state in all the biblical Land of Israel is destroyed by the land-for-peace process, a group of Orthodox army officers and militant settlers seizes power—a gripping story that moves between fantasy, political reality and biblical questions of borders and national claims.
But many Israeli officials are treating the book as more than a work of fiction. If Code Blue is any yardstick, the elements are falling into place. More and more religious Jewish settlers are becoming army officers and serving in elite units. They are among the most motivated soldiers.
Some top security experts believe Amit’s scenario of a coup is plausible, including Danny Yatom, an ex-general and former head of the Mossad spy agency.
the truth is stranger than fiction…
@ Ted Belman:
Bibi is obama’s man whether you like it or not. He is as pliable as can be. HE WANTS TO ATTACK IRAN NOW. BUT OBAMA DOES NOT LET HIM. This happened in 1998, 2003, 2007, 2011. He is not the Iron man that so many think he is.
@ deborah lurya:
Kadimah is just as left as anyone in Israel today.
Belsky your comments coincide with most of the middle east commentators conversant with what is happening in the mideast.
href=”#comment-160476″ title=”Go to comment of this author”>CuriousAmerican:
He did this to prepare for a war cabinet. An attack on Iran is imminent, and he wanted the cabinet up and running before the missiles start flying.
THis deal spells compromise on the Palestinian question. My feeling is that Obama has masterminded this move to allow for Bibi to bend a little (in accordance with kadima’s wishes).
Ted you are not correct. The left has gained immeasureably by this move and Bibi’s Right flank is up in arms. Kadima will now exert a lot of pressure to compromise his rigid stand regarding the Palestinian. And Mofaz, the supposed hardliner on Iran has always stated that Israel should not, yes NOT, act alone re Iran. This gives Bibi a lot of leeway without fearing a right wing revolt. Look for a quick resumption of negotiations with the Palestinians,
He did this to prepare for a war cabinet. An attack on Iran is imminent, and he wanted the cabinet up and running before the missiles start flying.
WHEN ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN … WILL YOU BE READY?!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEawBRpWBjc
Parlimentary systems form war cabinets in times of crises.
Netanyahu was teaming up with number #2 Kadima, so no transistion time is wasted.
IRAN WILL MAKE THIS COSTLY … SADLY!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mK2zVQ8YKE
@ Ted Belman:
Think again about what you said. The likud in the last election garnered 27 seats in the Knesset that about 23%, yet they were able to form a government around such meager pickings. As long as the voting blocks stay intact and loyal to their polical views as in the past election cycles there is no reason to expect any different outcome no matter what happens in the likud. I see no major movement between blocks only a re division within the traditional blocks.
I’d say three parties.
You have those with no ideology and their connection with the Likud is solely opportunistic and mercenary. Remember the party in power controls the government bureaucracies and the many government corporations with their high paying jobs and places of the boards of companies. Preferential tenders to party loyalists in a myriad of fields. Loal party activists with political ambitions need the party for funding their elections and political support.
There are tens of thousands in this category but less than 100, 000 Likud members voted in Likud primaries. They choose the lists and who gets to lead the party except where those at the top are given exemptions and are paced in safe slots.
There is little or no ideology in this group with some exceptions.
Then there are loyal nationalists many of whom grew up in the likud youth movements and support Likud partly out of tradition and partly because they still see the Likud in right wing terms.
Lastly there are many religious and traditional Jews of the Shas variety and national religious Jews who found a home in Likud rather than NRP and their many derivatives.
Many but not all in the first category left the Likud with Sharon. BB inherited a party made up of the second and third categories but it seems he brought in whole new group to replace the ones who left with Sharon. BB keeps his internal Likud power by controlling the party apparatus and the fear of his retribution if anyone challenges him from within. He put many of the Likud backbenchers and new recruits on notice when they tried to oppose his freeze of building like Boogey. He defused the internal opposition by co-opting them into an enlarged government.
Traditional Likudniks respect power and a palace revolt is almost unheard of and we saw what happened to most of those who opposed Sharon, most were voted so low on the Likud Lists that they didn’t get in the last election and an ideological stalwart like Uzi Landau placed 14 on the list and joined Lieberman probably out of spite. He is # 2 behind lieberman, a safe place to be. I live in Likud/Shas country and they are like Jewish Democrats in the States they vote Likud and Shas less out of conviction than tradition.
A Feiglin won’t move them but a Kahane would. We are missing a real right wing Charismatic political character than can move most of these people in or out of Likud to unify under one roof. Feiglin belives the Likud but I’m not convinced. They trick is how do you unify the divergent right under a single roof? Lieberman’s followers, National religious, settlers, and secular nationalists. Begin had it for awhile but lost it with Yamit. The only answer I come up with is a very Charismatic even populist and demagogic with a message and national vision than can unite these disparate groups. I don’t have a candidate in mind but I can’t hardly support a Likud such as it’s now constituted. I don’t see anybody below BB that can meet my expectations in this regard either.
BB I figure will outsmart and outmaneuver himself
in the past he always has.
@ David Chase:
Societies change core values either by revolution or through evolution.
Part of the Haredi opposition is funding for their schools and seminaries and part is losing control of their flock but they know it’s not sustainable and many young Haredi want the army and want to enter the work force and they are, slowly to be sure but at a pace were nether their way of life is radically upset and the IDF is able to deal with and integrate Haredi needs in the Army. Today they constitute I think 3 battalions and many more are joining up all the time and they have developed into one of the best combat units in the IDF with superior motivation.
Mass induction of Haredi youth will revolutionize the whole IDF. It will make it more Jewish and more sensitive the precepts of Judaism. This is the exact opposite of what most of the secular elements pushing for: mass inductions of Haredi youth. They might win the battle but for them they will lose the war. Because of the influence of the IDF in our society we will become a much more religious society.
Haredim now serving in the IDF
Best of the IDF Brigade of Pure Holy Torah
Netzach Yehuda
Nahal Haredi
The way I see it now, the Likud is two parties. The one that supports the platform and one that supports Bibi. But if Likud splits into two parties. how many seats does the right have assuming the Bibi wing is not on the right. How will the right every form a government if Likud splits.
@ Ted Belman:
It would have been touch and go in any event. You still don’t get it most Israelis hate BB personally. They may be cool to other politicians but BB hate is visceral. Follow me Likud was given 31-33 mandates when new elections were announced and Lapid had yet to really enter the fray. Deri was about to declare his intention to run and Labor was on the ascendency Kadima decendency and Barak didn’t make the cut/ Labor Deri and Lapid and Benet’s New party were set to take votes from the likud and Deri was going to split Shas and take votes from the Likud as well. Deri is no different than Meretz and will sit with whoever is elected. If Lieberman quits BB early enough and pushes the right buttons the Likud loses more. I guess that the Likud would have lost at least 10 mandates by Sept. 4th …barring an attack on Iran, then all bets are off.
The likud had more supporters in the territories than the NU . BB and the Likud will have lost at least one mandate from that sector and Feiglin wont keep them in based on BB’s anti settlement policies since he was elected.
What I am saying is that I can see the Likud either not being the largest faction and selected first to form a government and or the parties to the right not agreeing to support him again to form a right of center coalition.
Voting for a BB led Likud is essentially voting for Labor today. So the argument of or BB or the left is is a distinction without a real difference. Only with the Likud not in power can the right unite in opposition and possibly block any major moves that a Likud government could implement.
The old adage that: “only the Likud can give up land and only Labor can make war” still seems credible.
@ yamit82:
There is no question that with the exception of Labour and Kadima, most of the MKs in the government are to the right of Bibi and he brought in Labour and now Kadima so his position is more centrist to the gop0vernment as a whole. He never lead from the center of his party or followed its platform. This is very bad. He has a duty to stay close to his party’s platform.
We both agree that Migron and Ulpana are an acid test.
Ted seems to be on the same page as Ari Shavit a leftist on the Haaretz staff/
Like Ariel Sharon, Netanyahu has been pushed to the center
Finally we have a government representing the Israeli majority, a government that no niche party can extort. Finally we have a government with a clear Zionist majority.
By Ari Shavit
If BB wants to change his domestic policies then he should go to elections to get a new mandate from the Publis not to mention the likud membership. Yamit
Otherwise what you are saying is your ends justify your means and is blatantly anti-democratic even fascist. Governments are elected to implement their platforms and the goal is not stability. I think a stable government whose implemented policies are inimical to the interests of the state even dangerous should spell out where they want to take us and let the people decide.
The most stable forms of government is dictatorship. That’s what the supporters of the dirty maneuver are so happy about. They see BB moving into their camp. I say he has always been in their camp. He could not make it in the political camps to the left till now so he became a likidnik to gain power. Once in power he reverted to his leftist ideals.
@ BlandOatmeal:
The Mofaz Plan: A Permanent Palestinian State in Temporary Borders In Advance of Final Status Talks
Mofaz slams Obama for weak stance on Iran nukes
@ BlandOatmeal:
I don’t know if it’s “bad” for Obama but a secure Netanyahu will certainly be more of a thorn in his side and, I believe, not give in to his demands the way another government would. He has established credentials so I don’t really think he can jerk him around the way he would others. Remember, if Obama complained to Sarkozy about Netanyahu then Netanyahu is probably doing something right. If it takes a token coalition to keep him the one in power and he feels secure now then he can then do the right thing- protecting Ulpana for starters. Changing the Tal law is the right thing to do even if the hareidi parties don’t like it. It’s good for the country and as the hareidi will learn it will be good for them too. I don’t mind if BB has to create this coalition if it means he can now do what he needs to do. People should read Haim Amshalem’s article about what it means to be hareidi and why he should be applauded for leaving Shas and supporting changes as such in the Tal law.The Hareidi should read the article especially.
yamit82 Said:
I don’t believe that for a moment.
If Bibi doesn’t protect Migron and Ulpana, he should lose right wing support and he will. Unfortunately if Likud splits in half, the right doesn’t have enough seats to win the next election. But if Likud kicks Bibi out and stays intact it will still be touch and go.
There is nothing wrong if you don’t value democracy and democratic norms.
There is nothing wrong if you believe BB?
There is nothing wrong if it only protects BB’s tenure but little else.
There won’t be a constitution.
Any major change in the Tal Law will drive the ultra religious out of the coalition. I know you don’t care but they will work hard to bring BB down afterwards and don’t underestimate them especially if Shas joins them. Lieberman will pick is cause and jump to the opposition where he will claim Leader of the Opposition giving him a political platform and national status where he will try to bring all of the nationalist camp except Likud under a single voting block. The National Home party will not hold and also jump the the opposition if BB doesn’t protect Migron and Ulpanna.
Back benchers in Likud will be threatened by Feiglin of losing their seats if they support BB, Barak and Mofaz. Polls will show shortly that Kadima will fall to 6-7 mandates and the rats will scurry to link up with any other party that will take them. BB will fall in 6-months and they (likud and Kadima) will pay a heavy price for BB’s lies and crass manipulations.
I said on another post that I have a good source that swears BB will if he can get away with it politically opt for the Fayyad Plan and withdraw to the fence arbitrarily. The left, Kadima and the Arabs will support him as will Baraks faction and some of the Likud. BB and the Likud must fall before he can implement his agenda.
Of course Ted if you believe in BB’s integrity, political honesty, concern for the nation and good character then it might be a good thing.
Every Israeli can put up with a lot from our politicians and few expect anything positive from them but we Israelis hate to be friers (suckers) and the deal Mofaz and BB made is right up there with Peres stinking maneuver and the famous purchase by Labor of the Oslo Accords by buying the votes of two opposition MK. One with a ministerial position and the other with a new car Mitsubishi.
Not everything the left is against is necessarily wrong nor good for the right.
@ David Chase:
The merger seems
1. good for Bibi
2. good for Mofaz
3. bad for the Haredim
4. bad for Labor (for a little while)
Beyond that, I won’t even try to speculate. I won’t even say it’s bad for Obama. If Netanyahu is in Obama’s pocket, then his gaining near-dictatorial powers is NOT good for Israel. The restraints are off; that’s all we know for sure.
This is all very encouraging. It seems that by bringing Kadima into a coaliton he is essentially muting their opposition and can therefore do what he wants. Too bad on Barack Obama.
I happen to agree.
The shrunken Labor Party and its tiny Meretz Party partner are the fragments of the once powerful Zionist Left and have placed themselves outside the national consensus. Sitting with anti-Israel Arab parties will show Israelis how far from the mainstream they are.
Netanyahu didn’t pay a very high price to tuck Kadima in his coalition. Israeli policy is not going to change appreciably in the coming year.