Trump, Iran and Ukraine: When Promises Meet ‘Caution,’ the West’s Deadly Trap

Peloni:  The criticism in this article is fairly stated, but what goes unexplained here is that it is remotely possible for the US to bring down the regime in Tehran thru airstrikes alone.  It will take public support, massive regime authority defections, alongside the external force brought to bear against the regime.  The US can only effect one of these cornerstones of regime change and without the other two in place, very little will likely change in Iran.  This is likely why Trump provided himself with a potential side plot in calling for a “change in leadership” in Iran, something which is likewise being echoed by Sen. Cruz.  The change in leadership is not remotely the same as regime change, and only calls for a different head on the snake which will keep the long established oppressive regime in power over the Iranian people.   Hence, while Trump has a promise to fulfill to the Iranian people, it is truly only in the hands of the Iranians themselves to choose regime change over a change in leadership, and it will require a union of both the general public and regime authority figures.  Without this domestic Iranian coalition, a change in leadership is likely all that we will see in Iran.

by Pierre Rehov  •  Gatestone Institute  •  January 18, 2026

• “The ruthless slaughter of anti-government protesters in Iran appears to have stopped — but only because residents are being held hostage in their homes by machine gun-wielding security forces that have flooded the streets… ‘There were tanks out — there’s tanks everywhere’… ‘There are no protests anymore because of massive killings. With 12,000 dead, people are terrified…'” — The New York Post, January 15, 2026.
• Iranians have learned through bitter experience that when executions are “paused,” this does not mean they are canceled: they are “postponed” or carried out quietly, away from international scrutiny.

• What this episode ultimately exposed was not simply a tactical decision by one administration, but a structural failure in how the West approaches popular uprisings against entrenched tyrannies. Western leaders are adept at virtue signaling but conspicuously hesitant and fragmentary at follow-through. Expressions of solidarity are issued quickly; commitments to protection are hedged or left deliberately vague.
• The Islamic Republic understands this pattern intimately. It knows that it can absorb rhetorical condemnation, wait out media cycles, and then resume repression once attention shifts elsewhere. Tehran’s temporary retreat on executions, whether genuine or tactical, fits neatly into this playbook. A regime that has survived more than four decades through systematic violence does not abandon its methods because of warnings. It adapts, recalibrates and seeks to reduce the immediate risk of foreign intervention while preserving its core mechanisms of control.
• The danger for the protesters is that external encouragement, when not backed by sustained pressure, can accelerate this cycle by convincing the regime that it must act more efficiently, more quietly, and more ruthlessly.
• [O]ppressed populations are encouraged [by the West] to rise, while those encouraging them retain the option to disengage…. By speaking openly about consequences and then stepping back once Tehran signaled a partial retreat, [Trump] exposed the limits of American power in a way that previous administrations often concealed behind bureaucratic language.
• Iran’s regime has revealed, once again, the deadly trap at the heart of Western policy, seen in Ukraine as well as in the Middle East: a willingness to praise bravery without guaranteeing protection. Trump’s handling of these crises should be read less as a simple failure or success than as a warning. Words can inspire, but they can also expose countless people to monumental danger. In Iran today, and Ukraine, the difference between success and disaster depends not on declarations, but on whether those who speak the loudest are prepared actually to follow through.