Turner has 6 point lead over Weprin

Turner blows past Weprin, leads by 6 points in latest NY-9 Siena poll

With only four days until election, Republican Bob Turner appears to have gained major ground in his race against Democrat David Weprin, according to the Siena Research Institute poll. Turner now leads Weprin 50-44 among likely voters, in a dramatic reversal from last month, when Siena had Weprin up 48-42.

“Republican Turner heads into the final days of the campaign with a six-point lead in this heavily Democratic district after having trailed Democrat Weprin by six points just four weeks ago,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. “While Turner has an overwhelming 90-6 percent lead among Republicans, Weprin has only a 63-32 percent lead among Democrats, and Turner has a 38-point lead among likely independent voters. Currently, Turner enjoys a slightly larger lead among independent voters than Weprin has with Democrats. Weprin needs to find a way to win a larger share of Democratic and independent voters if he’s going to turn the race back around in the final days.”

A series of polls over the past few weeks showed the race tightening, though they were mostly from partisan polling firms or commissioned by the campaigns. Earlier this week, the New York Times pollster Nate Silver said that, based on available data, he was giving Weprin the slightest of edges.

“Over all, Mr. Weprin’s advantages are more tangible, which is why I would consider him a modest favorite given the ambiguity in the polling,” Silver said in his article Wednesday. “But a victory by Mr. Turner would hardly be surprising. I always caution against drawing national implications from special election results, and would certainly do so here given the idiosyncrasies of the district. But it would represent a nice little notch in Republicans’ belts and a troubling data point for Democrats.”

With this latest poll, Weprin’s chances appear to be slipping, as Turner’s call to send a message to Washington appears to be gaining major traction.

September 10, 2011 | 13 Comments »

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13 Comments / 13 Comments

  1. If the Jews stay home and, because of it, Obama gets a win in the 9th district I believe they’re sending a message that not only is anti-Israel policy acceptable but that overall Jew hating is alright- they are condoning it. They don’t have to wait until Nov. 2012 to take a stand. If they don’t, they deserve what they get. Someone once said to me that if they reopened the ovens the liberal Jews would get to go too. I apologize for the harsh tone but I think it’s otherwise ridiculous.

  2. In my State Senate district in 2010, the machine forced out three candidates to avoid a primary so a kid named Rivera would be the Dem on the ballot. Rivera is a powerful Bronx Puerto Rican political dynasty, but this Rivera is no relation.

    The dems don’t believe in democracy and the will of the people. In short, they are stalinists.

  3. My point was most American Jews slavish adherence to liberal viewpoints.

    I wonder why they would have slavish adherence to liberal viewpoints, even if it inapposite if their religion.

    Now, of course I understand that there may be good reasons why a Jewish American politicians (or other politicians who are faithful to the Sheva Mitzvot B’Nei Noach)would avoid supporting anti-blasphemy or anti-abortion laws. But a lot of them support policies that encourage and promote sin (as opposed to mere tolerance of sin).

  4. I absolutely do not condone encouraging liberal Jews to drink poison, and find your suggestion offensive. My point was most American Jews slavish adherence to liberal viewpoints. We can only hope they soon see the error of their failed (and destructive) ways. In the meantime, they’re handy for funding local JCCs.

  5. I wish lib jews would drink poison. By supporting your Obama, Biden, Hillary and Eric Holder this proves that they wish that the USA commit suicide. I prefer they commit suicide without taking thecountry with them,, to hell where they belong. Good intentions,as they claim, often result in nasty consequences.

  6. Liberal Jews would rather drink poison than vote for a Republican, no matter how preferable the candidate is. This poll must be mean Jews are deciding to stay home.

  7. NY9 was Schumer’s House seat before he beat D’Amato for the NY Senate seat in 1988. Thus, Schumer bequeathed his NY9 to Weiner. That is what the NY Dems do – avoid primaries, pre-select and rely on low turnout to protect incumbents.
    Former VP candidate Geraldine Ferraro also had NY9. NY9 is an iconic Democratic CD.
    NY9 has been redrawn every decade because it is surrounded by minority-majority CDs.

    never mind.

    not that it is any consolation, but all the NY Jewish politicans supported Hillary in 2008, and not because she carpetbagged her way into New York. They all knew. Now they pay the price.

  8. Schumer should be thrown out of office. A Jewish Democratic Senator that I haven’t once heard speaking out against Obama. Imagine the reversal that could have taken place if Schumer had spoken out against Obama. Instead of riding the party line to perpetuate his self interest, he could have used his position as a leading Senator to help foil Obama vis-a-vis Israel and make Obama incumbant on him and the people who elect them. He could have protested. And now I read that he’s campaigning for Weprin which is tantamount to supporting Obama. It’s one thing if an ordinary Jewish Democratic voter can’t see the light and it’s another when a Harvard Law School Graduate Jewish Senator can’t or won’t. I really think he should be ashamed of himself. If ever there was a need to use your position as a elected candidate, the last two and a half years were it. I’d like to see what shul he davens in this Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur.

  9. Rudy Giuliani did a robo-call for Turner today. Schumer did robo-call for Weprin. The Dems sent Rep. Carolyn Maloney and former Rep. Liz Holtzman into NY-9 today to use the 2010 theme: vote for Weprin to protect women’s reproductive rights. I assume that was in the 70% of NY9 that is NOT Jewish – but which is mostly Catholic. Which is why Weprin’s too-vocal vote for same-sex marriage has split the Orthodox Jews, and certainly is not popular with Catholics.

    And, it seems it is getting out that Weprin can NOT vote for himself because he lives outside NY-9, and also can not dance as a YouTube just surfaced showing him trying to dance at a rally where the black voters live – NY9 is gerrymandered around and n between the Minority-majority CDs mandated by the Voting Rights Act.

    The other issue hurting Weprin is that so many registered Dems in NYC are really fed up with the machine bosses picking the candidates to avoid primaries. That is why turnout in 2008 was 50% in NYC, and only 30% in NY-9. Why bother?

    In my State Senate district in 2010, the machine forced out three candidates to avoid a primary so a kid named Rivera would be the Dem on the ballot. Rivera is a powerful Bronx Puerto Rican political dynasty, but this Rivera is no relation.

    anyway, the problem with this Siena Poll is that it WILL drive up loyalist Democratic turnout. And, no matter what happens, it will result in the NY9 being carved up in redistricting in order to dilute possible GOP voters in 2012. Before this, it was NY22 that was going to be carved up since that is where population is declining. So, it ultimately will be bad for the NY GOP which remains close to comatose.

    Still, fun to see the Dems have to spend so much money in what they thought was a slam-dunk win since NY9 has sent a Dem to the House since 1923.

  10. Step 1: The 9th district. Step 2: Sarah Palin. I love it. I know it’s early but at least one can have hope and this is good news.