US surrender on breakout time to a bomb leads to breakthrough on a nuclear deal

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 29, 2015,

President Barack Obama and John Kerry promised that the nuclear deal to be signed with Iran in Switzerland this week will give the world powers a year’s warning after the Islamic Republic’s breakout up to an operational weapon. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources disclose that, to clinch the framework deal in Lausanne, even this concession, which imperils Israel, the Gulf and the Middle East at large, was not enough. In a further surrender, the president authorized the US delegation to fall back again on the space granted the world powers for reacting to breakthrough, dropping it from a year to six or seven months:

Our nuclear experts explain why even that grim arithmetic does not do full justice to the advantages Iran has gained for its push to a nuke:

1. Because Iran is permitted to continue running up to 6,500 elderly IR-1 centrifuges for enriching uranium to a low 3.5 percent grade, even if it is permitted to keep only 500 kilos of its stock of 7.5-8 –tons, Tehran would still be able to build a bomb in 7-8 months, i.e. a lot faster than Obama and Kerry have promised.

2. But if Tehran activates secret facilities undetected by US intelligence, it can produce a larger quantity of enriched uranium and so shrink the time between breakout and bomb to three, at most, four months, totally insufficient for the world powers to detect, step in and abort the bomb’s manufacture, in view of the following considerations:

— To obtain proof that Iran is cheating on its accord with the world powers, “environmental” samples would have to be obtained and tested in laboratories outside Iran. Results would be available only after two months, further slashing the time line for stopping Iran building a weapon. But that is not all.

— If Iran is shown by the first round of tests to be in violation of the accord and enriching uranium to a higher grade than 3.5, a second batch of “environmental” samples must be collected to analyze the exact quantities of uranium illicitly enriched and grade of purity.

There goes another month of valuable time for action, cutting it down to 10-12 weeks.

3. And, finally, the US President, Secretary of State and International Atomic Energy leaders have affirmed Iran’s faithful compliance with the first interim nuclear accord – known as the Joint Plan of Action – JPOA – that was signed in Geneva November 2013.
That information is equally false.

It is a fact which is known to intelligence agencies that Iran never complied with its commitment to reduce its UF6 stocks below 7.5 tons and convert added amounts to harmless oxides. Indeed, they estimate that Iran has enlarged its approved amount of stock to 8.5 tons or more, by means of the “creep-out” strategyit has repeatedly pursued in the past to conceal its nefarious nuclear activities.

3. A final concession which Iran has managed to wring out of the six world powers led by Washington allows Tehran to keep an extra 9,000 IR-1 centrifuges Tehran idle – though not dismantled – and permission to continue research and development on high-speed IR-8 or IR-5 centrifuges.

This mans thatn the Islamic Republic will not only keep its nuclear infrastructure under the accord the six powers plan to sign, but add improvements along with the freedom to shorten at will the critical time lapse between breakout and bomb.

The tons of spoken and printed verbiage poured out on the Iranian nuclear issue and ongoing diplomacy year after year have exposed, rather than disguised, President Obama’s willingness to sign a nuclear deal with Iran – however bad and whatever the price.

The inescapable conclusion is that the US president has come around to accepting the reality of a nuclear-armed Iran. As seen from Washington, America never stopped India, Pakistan and North Korea from becoming nuclear powers, and has therefore decided it can live with a fourth – Iran.

March 30, 2015 | 14 Comments »

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14 Comments / 14 Comments

  1. @ Avigail:

    Very good, they were helpless. Thank The Almighty, the Israelis are not helpless. However I do fret. You have a Blessed Passover with your family around you.

  2. Iran won’t do anything so overt, in the most likely scenario – they will simply leak some bombs to a Jihadist group who will set them off in a multiple attack 5-7 cities in America. America will have no country to blame and won’t know really who to retaliate against. Worldwide other countries will launch attacks on American Interests such as South Korea etc.

    In the confusion, and with America in a State of emergency Iran will make a multiple attack on Israel with conventional arms and paratroopers in order to take it intact, with conventional bombers etc with Hezbollah and Hamas providing the first wave ground troops. Europe will feel some sympathy for USA and Israel but no one there wants to be called an Islamophobe.
    Something along these lines. Iran will certainly take over the whole Middle East – they just have to threaten or do a couple of Hiroshimas.

  3. @ yamit82:

    We will not I believe an immediate target of a nuclear Iran.

    Always thought that too. Iran has 3 targets : the West, the Sunni, lastly Israel (if I refer to their eschatology).
    They can kill 2 birds (Sunni + the West) with one stone by bombing the Saudi oil fields. Compared to such an objective, Israel is a joke.

  4. I have always opposed BB’s barking dog approach-and we do not have a small stick… We will not I believe an immediate target of a nuclear Iran.

  5. I think Iran will have as primary target ….Europe, especially the Mediterranian. Rome is dispensible to them and will eventually be high up in their nuke target list. Expect a nuclear Iran to consistently hold a dagger to Europe’s throat.

  6. BB and Israel should do nothing… The world not only hopes Israel will do their job for them they expect us to do it.

    Since we owe the WORLD NOTHING, we should let them take care of Iran. I don’t think we will be their first or even their fifth target anyway.

    You cannot know for sure and I’m sure Israel doesn’t know for sure whether Iran already has a few operational nukes with homemade or purchased from N Korea..

    The Saudis, Jordan and the Emerits I think would be their primary targets and they are mostly defenseless. All have significant Shia Muslim populations. Shia Tribes are located in the Heart the Saudi Oil Fields near Iran.

  7. Speeches will not do Mr. Netanyahu nor will do “coalition” stupid games.
    What do you, Netanyahu, intend to do and now to prevent a nuclear Holocaust?