Why must Israel create a “horizon of hope”?

By Ted Belman

ted-4.jpgPM Olmert announced that he expects to reach an agreement with the PA (whatever and whoever that is) by the end of the year, and went on to say it won’t be implemented for many years.

    “We will insist on all the terms of the Road Map, first and foremost among them a cessation of terrorism, as a precondition for implementation of any understanding. But the first step creating a horizon of hope for us and for the Palestinians can be taken, it must be taken, and we will make every effort in order to successfully do so this year.”

The obvious question is why must we create a “horizon of hope”? The argument goes, if the Palestinians have hope, they will abandon terror. Where is the evidence of this? Evidently we are offering them a carrot as an inducement to forgo terror.

The Oslo accords also offered them the carrot of autonomy and they accepted it on this basis only to get their many feet in the door and then immediately resorted to terror and never honoured their obligations.

So Bush offered them another carrot, the prospect of a Palestinian state subject to cleaning house. The Roadmap followed shortly thereafter. It set out the steps to be taken to get the carrot. More terror was the result. Even that carrot, wasn’t enough to change anything.

I should point out there was a hidden carrot included in the Roadmap namely the Saudi Peace Plan which was mentioned for the first time as a principle in reaching an agreement. Rest assured that when the Abdullah first mentioned the Plan it had been agreed by the US that the plan would be incorporated in the Roadmap after Bush announced his vision of a Palestinian state. This Plan thereby undermined the principles of Res 242 which were the guiding principles until then. Sharon objected to its inclusion and Powell got brusque with him and basically said take it or leave it. You cannot have the Roadmap without the Saudi Plan as part of it. Res 242 mandated defensible borders with withdrawal from part of the lands. The Saudi Plan required full withdrawal to indefensible borders.

As you know, nothing changed. Palestinian terror continued.

Sharon sought to break the impasse and take the future into Israel’s own hands and disengaged from Gaza unilaterally. This also offered hope to the Palestinians as they had every opportunity to build on what Israel left behind. They decided to destroy it instead.

Around this time, Condi started saying the the Palestinians must be offered “hope”. As if Israel hadn’t been offering them hope from the git go. Nevertheless she would build on this idea with diplomats all over the word picking up on it as if on cue, which they probably were.

This new initiative culminated in the Annapolis conference and the inversion of the steps. First the core issues were to be negotiated and then incorporated in a Declaration of Principles. But we were told not to worry because such agreement would be a “shelf agreement” until the requirements of the first phase are satisfied.

To call it a “shelf agreement” is to suggest that it will lie fallow like a government report, with no immediate consequences. Nonsense.

Even now before the agreement is finalized, it is being implemented on the ground. Arabs are being allowed to build anywhere on what will be their land without the necessity of building permits. Jews on the other hand are severely restricted from building on their land or land they own. Palestinians are being tasked with the job of policing certain Arab towns and we just heard about how their political rights in Jerusalem are being expanded. [O Jerusalem! America drafts plan to cut in 2]

To call this a “shelf agreement” is a bald-faced lie. But beyond the question of its implementation, the most important consequence of it is the fact that the lands accorded to the Palestinians would in effect be held on trust for them. I have no doubt that after the “shelf agreement” is signed, Israel will pass the bill offering compensation to settlers to move out, more roadblocks would be lifted etc. Israel will gradually withdraw over the next five years while the US increasingly works with Fatah to increase their strength to govern and reduce terror.

The Americans are training Fatah in the same way and for the same purpose as they are training the Iraqi army. The only difference is that in the case of the territories, Israel is the occupier but in both cases, the US is in charge.

In effect this Declaration of Principles or agreement on core issues is really a negotiated withdrawal agreement rather than a unilateral disengagement. Because of it, Israel can withdraw in stages to predetermined borders.

In effect this shelf agreement is the blueprint for all interim steps to be taken toward its implementation.

Once there is better separation, Palestine will be declared with or without a cessation in terror and incitement.

Keep in mind the object of the peace process is to end the occupation, not end the terror. For this reason Israel is investigating ways to protect themselves from missiles and rockets.

The way I see it is that if you are in favour of ending the occupation along the lines suggested, this is a good plan and it is irreversible. If you don’t believe me watch this State Department on The US-Palestinian Partnership

If, on the other hand, you hate the deal that is being cut, too bad.

April 11, 2008 | 19 Comments »

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  1. Yambo: Now that you pounded your chest and feel like a real man again, perhaps I may pound some reason into that miniscule brain of yours. May I point out that no responsible individual, meaning someone with authority and answerable to the Israeli public has suggested a reoccupation.For yo- yos like yourselves who spend most of your time downing Jack Daniels, war is some sort of walk in the park. Ask any veteran of either Lebanon or Gaza what it is like to be sniped at by invisible foes over a prolonged period of time. Find out about the psychological and physical toll that is taken.

    Yambo, without knowing you personally, I would hazard a guess thatn the closest you have come to some sort of service is perhaps the “Boy Scouts” , otherwise you would not write with that fake bravado of yours.

    Drink up Yambo.

  2. I believe that the main problem facing Israel is not the Bush administration in Washington,notwithstanding sec.Rice’s efforts for James Baker & Chevron oil.The main problem is the Crew of cretins who run the Kadima gov’t.To paraphrase Winston Churchill “modest little men with much to feel modest about”.If this Olmert gov’t didn’t want this deal they would get around it.The political culture in Israel is set up to let political hacks like Olmert,Livni & Barak prosper.Kadima may not survive as a party past the next election & Labor is not much better off (without the Arabs Labor would have little in the way of votes).You have a situation where the leadership compromises Jewish interests constantly,after all they are not Jews,they are Israelis with a taste for Europe.What Jew would give up part of Jerusalem? Olmert & Barak would in a moment & they coudn’t care less,the city means nothing to them,like leaving the eastern part of Omaha Nebraska.These political creatures have no religion,no honor, only careers to advance.Israel has very strong cards to play but they are beyond the grasp of the political midgets now in power.
    for one thing Bush is not an emperor with unlimited ability to hurt Israel if he desires to,there are other power centers Israel could turn to,Congress & the American people which could hold a hostile administration in check.Secondly this administration is a lame duck & Israel could wait for the next administration to arrive in 2009.There is nothing Washington can do to Israel in the next 8 or 9 months that would endanger Israels situation.
    The main card Israel could play is what I call the Jewish card.From what I have seen there are different perceptions as to who are the real Jews in the eyes of Christian supporters of Israel.Christian Zionists don’t see secular Israelis when they look to the Holy Land,they see heroic Israelites of the Bible;they see the people of Jesus standing against the evils of the ancient world.When the Christians around the world looked upon Ben Gurion,Dayan,Golda or Begin they saw king David,Judah Macabee,Deborah & the Prophets battling the enemies of G-D.Now when they look at this current bunch of political hacks they see Shylock,the merchant of Venice,they see Fagin,they see the old European stereotypes of cowardly Jews.Secular careerists like Olmert would have an impossible time being heroic Jews,they wouldn’t know where or how to begin!Many Christians from around the world who have been antagonised by the Moslem barbarians would be glad to join forces with the Modern Israelites against the worshipers of the Moon God.The problem is finding modern Israelites in a nation of materialistic secularists.As the authentic People of the Book,the people from who’m the Christians recieved their religion,Jews could gain worldwide support for their cause.All they have to do is act like Israelite Jews ,not like European Jews!

  3. Peskin: Your friends speak Truth:

    1. PA Ambassador: “First Jerusalem, Then We’ll Take All Palestine”
    by Hillel Fendel

    “When Israel’s ideology will collapse, and after we take Jerusalem, Israel’s ideology will collapse altogether, and then we will proceed with our own ideology, inshallah [if Allah wills], and we will throw them out of all of Palestine.” So said Abbas Zaki, the Palestinian Authority’s ambassador to Lebanon on Lebanese television last week, according to a translation by MEMRI (Middle East Media Research Institute).

    Expressing strong support for terror attacks against Israel, Zaki said, “We believe wholeheartedly that the Right of Return [of millions of Arabs and their descendants who left Israel in 1948 and 1967 -ed.] is guaranteed by our will, by our weapons, and by our faith.”

    Asked if this means he believes “in weapons, not just in negotiations,” Zaki said that neither of them is effective by itself: “The use of weapons alone will not bring results, and the use of politics without weapons will not bring results. We act on the basis of our extensive experience. We analyze our situation carefully. We know what climate leads to victory and what climate leads to suicide.”

    “We talk politics,” Zaki said, “but our principles are clear. It was our pioneering leader, Yasser Arafat, who persevered with this revolution, when empires collapsed. Our armed struggle has been going on for 43 years, and the political struggle, on all levels, has been going on for 50 years. We harvest U.N. resolutions…”

    ‘Israel Must Pay a Heavy Price’
    Speaking with young Arabs who see themselves as Palestinians, Zaki said, “The important thing is that in any [military] operation, Israel will pay a price. We don’t want cases in which you [Arabs] don’t kill even a chicken, but Israel kills 20 of you. I salute any operation that makes Israel pay a heavy price.”

    ‘We’ll Drive Them All out of All of Palestine’
    Zaki said that the PLO [Palestinian Liberation Organization] is the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, and that it remains true to its values and ideology: “In light of the weakness of the Arab nation and the lack of values, and in light of the American control over the world, the PLO proceeds through phases, without changing its strategy. Let me tell you, when the ideology of Israel collapses, and we take, at least, Jerusalem, the Israeli ideology will collapse in its entirety, and we will begin to progress with our own ideology, Allah willing, and drive them out of all of Palestine.”

    From Munich to Hevron
    A mastermind of the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre of 11 Israeli athletes, Zaki has long been a leading inciter against Israel and an outspoken proponent of anti-Israel terrorism. Back in 1996, he was arrested by Israel for suspected involvement in setting fire to Jewish National Fund agricultural equipment, and later frequently led anti-Jewish rioters in Hevron.

    Despite his warm words for Arafat, Zaki was one of his opponents at the end of Arafat’s career. In July 2002, Zaki – then a member of the Fatah Supreme Council – said that then-PA Chairman Arafat “has to go… Wherever he went, he brought with him corruption and instability.”

  4. Peskin: To save one single Jewish child I would kill ten thousand of theirs how is that for cost analysis?
    I missle or rocket heades ur way I would unleash the wrath of hell against them and assume the worst even before it hits us. I will make shore Montreal is a target just for you.

  5. Peskin you are a malignant defeatist and a real self hating Jew disease. Where did you read the tripe and bullshit that you throw out with a self assured opinion of yourself that the information you present here is true and that we cannot counter it in a number of ways? Do you have military experience? Have you ever been to Gaza? How many Gazan’s do you know? Comparing Gaza with Lebanon is about par for the course with you imbiciles. except that we have Sunni Fanatics in the South and Shia Fanatics t the North of us nothing else is comparable. Lebanon Much larger plus there is a lot of depth to maneuver and the terrain mountainous in Lebanon, flat narrow sandy in Gaza Gaza is fences off with Israel and have the sea to their backs. Egypt, Israel or the sea are the only entrance points or exit points as the case may be. We can take care of Gaza in less than a week and if we do it right in a day as we can get them to run into egypt , then we close the door and never never let them back in. We can kill every Hamas activist in Gaza with little trouble our intel in Gaza is that good. For every Israeli wounded or killed we demolish a whole neighborhood, anyone with a weapon is shot on sight. We go house to house and thoroughly check for weapons and ammo. the beginning will be most difficult but once they see we are serious they will stop their aggression. We liquidate all Hamas activists and anyone with a weapon. no prisoners.Nothing gets in or out except through Egypt. We assume no responsibility for Gazans who are an enemy all Gazans. Egypt deserves them and it behoves us to see them as many as possible to find a new life with their brother Egyptians.. NO MORE MR> NICE GUY!!!!!

    Whether this would kill the phony anti Israel and antisemitic peace process, I should hope so!!! That EU and USA would be upset with us I can say we are upset by them, any way why should we care that the 2 most decadent non moral, hedonistic and Nihilistic societies in the world would be upset with us. They have caved so far against the Talibn, Loosing in Iraq, Caced in by Iran, N. Korea,, Pakistan,China, Gulf States,Russia, and Albania.. Big against Serbia and Twisting Israel. Thats it Fuck em and you.


    Israel would destroy Iran if attacked: minister
    Filed under: Israeli politics, IDF/Military, Iran’s nukes, Terror attacks on Israel, News, Iran
    On: Tuesday, April 08, 2008 – By:
    JERUSALEM (AFP) – An Israeli government minister warned on Monday that Israel would respond to any Iranian attack by destroying that country, public radio reported.

    “An Iranian attack against Israel would trigger a tough reaction that would lead to the destruction of the Iranian nation,” National Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer said in remarks of rare virulence.

    “Iranians are aware of our strength but continue to provoke us by arming their Syrian allies and Hezbollah,” he said during a meeting at his ministry.

    Ben-Eliezer, a member of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s security cabinet, stressed however that the Iranians were unlikely to attack as “they understand the meaning of such an act”.

    Last month, Defence Minister Ehud Barak told visiting US Vice President Dick Cheney that “no option” would be ruled out in Israel’s bid to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

    Israel, along with its ally the United States and other Western powers, accuses Iran of pursuing the development of a nuclear bomb under the guise of its civilian nuclear programme — a charge Tehran denies.

    Israel considers Iran its top enemy following repeated calls by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for the Jewish state to be wiped off the map.


  6. It is important to understand the underlying strategy behind Hamas’s continuing provocations. The whole purpose is rather simple:-to lure the I.D.F. back into Gaza, to reoccupy the territories. This would provide Hamas ample opportunity to engage in the kind of guerrila operations that they have been training for these past few years. Here the Israeli forces would be at a decided disadvantage. Hamas would be on their home turf, fighting while intermingling with the civilian population, involving themselves in hit and run tactics. It worked well in South Lebanon, and it is highly successful in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Another purpose for this approach is that once Gaza is reoccupied, Israel becomes responsible for the economic sustenance of the area. Hamas is now attempting to govern under almost impossible circumstances. The embargo is creating huge financial burdens. Well, Israel left because both the cost in shekels and lives became overly onerous. And again we have the convergence of purpose of the Right wing both in Israel and in Palestine- TO SCUTTLE THE PEACE PROCESS. A reoccupation more likely would spell the death knell to the whole negotiating process.This would be unacceptable to those who count, the U.S. and the E.U.

    These are the factors that really have to be considered. A simple cost benefit analysis is required. The question that has to be asked? Is Israel better off now with regard to Gaza, as compared to the long period of the occupation? If you compared the casualty rates and the financial costs, and the political necessities for the two periods, there would be little doubt that a reoccupation is not the way to go.

  7. Olmert is promising Hamas that he is going to do something that would cause them to be unable to operate.

    What could that be? Is he going to include Hamas in his coalition?

    Conspiracy theorists might be right if they say this incursion into the Nachal Oz Depot was way too easy … more than just an oversight by the IDF…!?

  8. Israel Ex-General Criticizes Israeli Defensive Posture

    Posted by avideditor on April 11, 2008

    Have a great shabat all.Here is some great commentary form Holgers Awakens. Enjoy.

    Israel Ex-General Criticizes Israeli Defensive Posture: “
    An ex-General with the IDF has come out as sharply critical of the Israeli leadership’s commitment to a defensive posture against attacks by the jihadists of Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad. This is from the article here from DEBKA:

    Former OC Central Command and ex-defense ministry Dir.-Gen Ret. Gen. Shraga Biran said Friday, April 11, that Israel’s security problems will not be solved through defensive operations. In an unusually outspoken diatribe against current government policy by an apolitical military strategist, Biran warned that this defensive posture would lead inexorably to war, while strengthening Israel’s antagonists, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas.

    I certainly can’t find anything I disagree with in the criticism by Biran. In my view, Israel continues to let the jihadists take the first punch and the net result is that the Israelis are getting softer with each blow. I am STILL waiting for the retribution from the Jerusalem seminary massacre. And where is the offensive into Gaza to create more of a buffer zone? The Israelis have been shot, bombed and rocket-attacked for four months straight now and there is no sign of any housecleaning.

    It’s high time that the Israelis create a strategy, a major offensive to take Hezbollah and Hamas off their mark. Both terrorist groups are preparing for war, so why let them get entrenched and prepared? The world has nothing to say about it and Condi Rice can go suck an egg. The protection of Israel is dependent on attacks on the jihadists that will set them back not in some lax retaliation of words.

    Israeli ex-general sharply criticizes official ‘defensive’ policy as recipe for war

    He faulted the West as a whole for closing its eyes to Iran’s rising strength and nuclear aspirations.
    DEBKAfile’s military sources hold up Israel’s military action in Gaza Friday to illustrate the point made by Gen. Biran.
    Following the murder on April 9 of two Israeli civilians at the fuel terminal supplying Gaza, Israel’s Givati Brigades, tank and engineering units, supported by combat helicopters advanced to between one and 1.5 km deep into the Gaza Strip and stopped short outside the El Bureij camp. All day, they engaged fire with armed Palestinians who used rocket-propelled grenades, heavy machine gun and mortars. The troops kept on dodging the fire without advancing.
    Israeli helicopters hit Palestinian firing positions, killing six gunmen and a child. In the afternoon the IDF spokesman accused the Palestinians of fighting from inside populated areas.
    Two things happened in this engagement, according to DEBKAfile’s military analysts:
    1. Palestinian forces had another chance to hone their combat skills by watching Israeli tank movements and learning how to defend themselves, before going on the offensive.
    2. The Palestinian population practiced ways of supporting their gunmen.
    It is a well-known convention that Hamas draws its forward front lines in and around Gaza’s urban centers, such as Gaza City and Al Bureij and uses the population as human shields.
    The operation was mounted to exact a penalty from the Palestinian terrorists two days after their unprovoked incursion into the fuel facility and two murders. Instead of showing their deterrent mettle, Israeli combat forces had to make do with fighting from a distance and presenting Hamas with a demonstration of ineffectiveness. The presence of an Israeli force outside al Bureij did not deter the Palestinians from continuing to shell Nahal Oz, launching a missile at Erez and shooting at ID border patrols. Snipers again aimed at an Israel farm tractor working in the fields of Nir Oz, two days after the IDF embarked on an earlier operation to put a stop to the harassment of Israeli farmers from Gaza.
    All in all, because of the excessive caution of chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi and his superiors, Israel has not only failed to halt missile attacks from Gaza but even mortar shelling and light automatic rifle by lone snipers.

  9. 1Ki 18:21 Sunstar went before the people and said, “How long will you waver between two opinions? If the LORD is God, follow him; but if ALLAH is God, follow him.” But the people said nothing.

  10. 1Ki 18:21 Elijah went before the people and said, “How long will you waver between two opinions? If the LORD is God, follow him; but if Baal is God, follow him.” But the people said nothing.

  11. Laura your wish came true even before you made your wish HE HAS PROSTRATE CANCER!

    Peskin you are correctbut then we can just wait Bush out and take our chances with next administration or get rid of Olmert before which will amt to the same thing. If Olmert thinks he can create a fait accompli with first announcement he is gone. Can never be ratified by Israeli Knesset. He will call new elections and run with plan as referendum which he will ultimatly loose badly. Labor Party and Kadima will run on Joint list if Barak keeps polling in the high teeens. You do over state Americas Party and I hope in the end Israels.

    Read my postings on #4

  12. It is obvious that this is an imposed peace plan, to be implimented in stages. The simple answer is that America has the leverage to impose this plan, which is stating the obvious.

    The question is if you don’t like the plan, what can you do about? What you can do is what you are doing, rant and rave, and make lots of noise, but ultimately it will achieve nothing.

    For the fact of the matter is, Israel’s present government has just filed its monetary request to America asking for a generous increase and adding that it would prefer that the cash be paid in Euros.

    And do you honestly think that any altenative (likud) Gov’t would act any differently?

    Nobody really wants to rock the boat.

  13. No one wants peace http://samsonblinded.org/blog/no-one-wants-peace.htm
    By Obadiah Shoher

    Israeli peace mavens (and Talmud describes doves as the most cruel beings) imagine that Arabs want economic and financial cooperation with Israel. Those countries, however, are so backward that they cannot even refine their own oil into petroleum. The idea of economic development is alien to Arab mind. Economic cycles in Arab countries proceed in this manner: pump oil – waste the proceeds – steal the balance. Even if Arabs miraculously convert to Adam Smith’s faith, they have plenty of qualified pastors with the best economic degrees from England, France, Germany, and the United States. They simply don’t need Israel. read whole article!

    What should be done about peace talks with Arabs is simple: nothing. Israel gains nothing from peace treaties with Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and the like. We will not risk substantially reducing the IDF, and Arabs will not start loving us as cousins. Palestinian peace advances should be ignored: if they want a state, let them proclaim it in whatever areas they actually possess. If they continue fighting us, we will fight back as one fights states. If they carp at Jerusalem or settlement blocs, we will repel that aggressor state. No Palestinian migrant workers in Israel, no trade with Palestine, no services provided to it, just abandon the areas densely settled by Arabs. Many countries have unruly border areas, and Israel can live with unruly West Bank. Don’t object to Palestinian statehood and don’t agree to it, but ignore it. In any negotiations, Israel only gives, but takes nothing. Abandoning all negotiations with Arabs is objectively the most beneficent

    Palestinians could have proclaimed statehood long ago, but beyond the empty declaration of statehood by the PLO in Tunisia, they didn’t. Peace with Israel means for Palestinians accepting responsibility for their lives, which they cannot. Palestinian economy, meager before the 1940s, is irreparably damaged. A million-something Gazans cannot be meaningfully employed, the refugees coming back from Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Gaza would find no arable land for themselves. Some Palestinians will always be discontent, and the continued guerrilla attacks on Israel, even if reduced to a minimum, would still provoke retaliation which disrupts Palestinian attempts to build a normal life. Palestinian state, no more the focus of world’s anti-Semitism, will gradually lose the massive foreign aid. In other Arab countries, agricultural improvement went slowly, and the influx of displaced peasants into cities was gradual, though even such an influx shifted national politics greatly. In the case of Palestine, refugees who have long lost the employment skills will flood the cities, double and triple their population, and make them into perpetual slums, where poverty breeds more poverty, one unemployed generation breeds another, and all of that breeds crime and terrorism. So the Palestinians leaders sensibly ask from Israel maximum concessions in the peace process to delay their statehood as much as possible.

    read whole article:http://samsonblinded.org/blog/nothing-is-new-under-the-sun.htm

    The world blames Israel during the short periods she blockades Gaza, but Egypt does the very same thing. Jewish state can somewhat control the flow of illegal Gazan labor, but giant Egypt found it nearly impossible to stem the migration from Gaza. For Egypt, palliative solutions don’t work: it can either seal Gaza off, or suffer the permanent flow of discontent, disloyal, criminal laborers. If Israel were smarter, she would stop pulling Egypt’s hair over some smuggling to Gaza, but mobilize the world’s opinion to push Egypt to open its border with Gaza. That is the surest way to depopulate Gaza within years, first of youngsters, then of working-age Arabs, and gradually of everyone – and the only practical way to end Gaza’s troublesome existence.

    http://samsonblinded.org/blog/end-gaza.htm read full article

  14. On Aug 17/07 Aaron Klein reported in an article

    A chief Palestinian negotiator, speaking to WND on condition his name be withheld, said yesterday, “there can be no agreement with Israel unless we get complete sovereignty of the Mount. Once Palestinian control over the [Temple Mount] is fixed, then we will make assurances for Jewish visits to the site.”

    Looks like the Arabs have gotten their way.

  15. “Horizons” are so 6 months ago, we’re talking “final status” not “horizons” now. Olmert’s obfuscating. Condi’s own words:

    what we had to break through is the idea that this was all sequential, that you just — you will remember that for not too long ago there was a lot of talk that until all the obligations of the Roadmap are met, we can’t even talk about final status. And then we said, well no, there had to be a political horizon, and we went through an extensive period of time in which Matt and Arshad and others were asking, “What does political horizon mean?” You were asking, “What does political horizon mean?” Now we are really not talking about political horizon. We’re talking about final status negotiations. Everybody knows what that means. But we’ve — by breaking that sequentiality, we don’t mean to imply that the Roadmap obligations are not important to fulfill.

    (from the U. S. State Dept’s official website)