Peloni: It is time for Trump to finally choose between the prospects and costs of grasping victory or accepting defeat. As Trump has noted many times over the past year while pursuing negotiations in between the two wars which were each used to pressure the Iranian regime to accept his terms, Iran can not have a nuclear weapon. The only question is whether Trump is going to follow thru on the commitment to stand behind these words, or to surrender to the resolute nature of Iran’s obstinacy. For my own thoughts, I still believe Trump will choose victory over defeat, but time will tell if this is true.
The Iranians are generating cash flow, planning for the future, and taunting Trump. It’s time for his patience to end.
Am Thinker | May 17, 2026\
Image created using AI.
Yesterday, we published Travis Lynch’s essay suggesting that Trump needs to fish or cut bait if he is to effectuate change in Iran. Right now, Trump is in what’s becoming an unstable holding pattern that creates the appearance, at least, that Iran has the upper hand. News today, though, suggests that (a) Iran has finally gone too far and (b) Trump knows it.
Trump’s pattern of constant “I’m really going to get Iran this time,” followed by equally constant time extensions and lifelines, is becoming a problem. I understand very well that he has Iran in a fairly tight economic vice, and would prefer not to initiate active hostilities again, because that means involving Congress and creates bad headlines, but the current stasis doesn’t favor America. Indeed, in three ways, Iran is slipping out of that vise.
First, it appears that Iran is starting to move oil over the Pakistan border. While less efficient than shipping, it’s still a way to get revenue:
Second, Turkey is helping launder money for Iran, another way to keep the mullahs and the IRGC afloat, even if just barely:
Third, Iran isn’t capping its wells. That was everyone’s assumption about what would happen—if it couldn’t ship the oil, it would have to shut down the wells, which would destroy them, either permanently or for the long haul. Instead, Iran is flushing excess oil into the Gulf:
Iran doesn’t care about an ecological disaster. It cares about ensuring that, as soon as America gets out of the Strait—and Iran thinks it will do so soon because of political pressure on Trump—Iran’s oil fields are back in business.
Additionally, Iran has decided it has Trump’s measure. Because of political pressure from the Democrats, not to mention rising fuel prices, Iran feels that Trump’s threats are empty. He’s not going to do anything. That’s why it sent back a risible counteroffer to Trump’s demand that Iran must end all of its nuclear ambitions:
Picking up where the above leaves off:
…first, sanctions lifted, all frozen funds released, war damages paid, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz recognized.
In other words, Iran wins by being returned to its status quo ante—the moment before the war—and America loses, by retreating and paying up.
Iran is also flexing its military muscles, having sent three drones to a nuclear generator in the UAE, only two of which were intercepted:
Fortunately, the strike didn’t cause serious damage, but the thought of a military attack on a nuclear power plant is concerning.
If this were a playground, Iran would be doing the equivalent of being the scrappy little kid thumbing his nose at a passive, bewildered bigger kid, while saying “nyah nyah nyah.”
Perhaps, though, Trump has finally had enough, especially since he seems to have gotten Xi’s agreement that Iran cannot be nuclear and that it cannot control the Strait of Hormuz (the one over which Iran now demands sovereignty). Thus, early today, Trump sent out one of his briefer Truths:
I certainly hope Trump means it. The current status quo is unsustainable, for America is starting to look like a loser.
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