Will US allow Lebanon to fall to Syria?

DEBKAfile reports: Lebanon’s pro-Syrian opposition is going forward with its revolt to seize government in Beirut

[Will the US allow this to happen? Their only option is to get the IDF to finish off Hezbollah and Syria.]

Our sources in Beirut report that the Hizballah-led bloc’s effort to carry out the first Middle East revolution this century to overthrow a pro-Western government is designed to go forward in calculated stages, rather than a continuous operation. On Day one Tuesday, 3 Lebanese were killed, 133 were injured and the country was paralyzed. The anti-government bloc, headed by Hizballah’s Hassan Nasrallah and pro-Syrian allies, Gen. Michel Aoun and the north Lebanese Faranjieh clan, has been encouraged by its initial effectiveness to carry on to the next stage at some unspecified moment.

And indeed, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese continued Wednesday to stream to the capital in a well-organized transport operation.

On arriving in Paris Wednesday, Jan. 24, prime minister Fouad Siniora charged that Lebanon has been paying the price of “imposed decisions coming from outside, like Iran and Syria.” Before he left, he vowed not to surrender to violence.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that the pro-Syrian bloc plans next to send the demonstrators to storm government ministries en masse and seize control of the administration.

DEBKAfile’s Beirut sources report the crippling of normal business in Lebanon Tuesday was orchestrated step by step by means of text messages to the

300,000 cell phones distributed to the local ringleaders.

They also owe their success to the cooperation of the Lebanese army and security forces.

Except for some Beirut districts, they stood aside or actively helped the pro-Syrian demonstrators in the rest of the capital and in central and northern Lebanon. In most places, the army and police were heavily outnumbered and made no effort to restore order. The casualties of the day were caused by clashes between pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian factions – not with the forces of law and order. [This is the same army that was placed in the south by Res 1701 to restrain Hezbollah.]

Tuesday night, a senior intelligence source described the crisis in grim terms to DEBKAfile:

    “Today they laid siege to government offices and the premises of the anti-Syrian government parties, burning tires and cars,” he said. “Wednesday, they may start burning government buildings and the headquarters of anti-Syrian movements. The Siniora government does not command sufficient loyal security personnel to stem the tide of more than a million pro-Syrian demonstrators. Only outside military intervention can save the day, but I don’t see it coming.”

Suleiman Franjieh, a Christian opposition leader, told Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV the next steps “will be nothing compared to what we saw today” – if the government does not respond to the opposition’s demands.

Fouad Siniora is in Paris to attend a conference of the donor governments for Lebanon’s reconstruction. Our sources report that Nasrallah and Aoun have decided to let him go and come, while using his absence to muscle their way to power with the help of massive demonstrations. Siniora is to be left with the empty title of prime minister and no real authority.

January 24, 2007 | 2 Comments »

Subscribe to Israpundit Daily Digest

2 Comments / 2 Comments

  1. I bet all those countries that wanted to stop Israel from defending itself after one week because the conflict was getting messy (and Hezbollah was churning out very effective staged media propaganda) wish that Israel was given the time to do the necessary. Unfortunately, as is always the case, anti-Semitism comes before common sense, basic self-defense and self-interest. At the cost of tens of millions, Canada allowed thousands of Lebanese with Canadian passports into Canada (most for the first time) to escape War-Lite.

    This time that rush to get away from Hezbollah and Syrian goons might prove to be a thousand fold in its impact. Like RandyTexas points out, once Hezbo-Syria takes charge, the enemy will be more clearly defined and Lebanon will descend into a smaller version of Iraq. I will not be sorry to see Siniora go – he had his chance to join Israel to root out the invaders but he chose to vilify and shame Israel. That, combined with bad strategic/ military planning and US pressure, made winning impossible. The march of the Islamic invaders goes on unabated.

  2. If the government falls it works to Israel’s advantage in the next conflict. Israel had to fight a PC war in Lebanon last time but it won’t be the same if perceptions of control are different.

    Nasrallah and Aoun along with Damascus must realize this and have have decided to keep Siniora as a figure head for their own protection. As long as Siniora remains he is useful as a deterrent against Israeli actions and a propaganda tool for Hezbollah and Damascus which will allow them to go about unrestrained in Lebanon.

Comments are closed.