Peloni: Trump must take back control securing the freedom of the seas, in such a way that it is seen that this is taking place on his terms and not those of the Houthis. Failing to do so will only lead to the grasp of US impotence growing under the return of Trump to the White House rather than the opposite.
The message from the Houthis is that they decide the time and place of attacks. The message they think will resonate is that they got away with this. Time will tell if this is the case.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN | JANUARY 16, 2025
This is important because the Houthis started attacks on Israel and shipping in the wake of the Hamas attack. They have now decided to possibly end those attacks. However, this will let them apparently walk away without any kind of punishment for their actions.
The website GCaptain notes that “Maritime stakeholders are closely monitoring the development, as the agreement could be a turning point for vessels in the Red Sea region, where ships have endured numerous drone and missile attacks since October 7, 2023. These attacks have forced much of global trade to divert around the Cape of Good Hope—significantly extending voyage times while raising both costs and emissions.”
The Houthis have attacked numerous ships and escalated their attacks throughout the war in Gaza. They launched cruise missiles, drones, and ballistic missiles at Israel. They have shifted their focus at times from attacking Eilat to attacking shipping to targeting central Israel with ballistic missiles.
Several decades ago, this kind of attack would have been seen as very serious. Israel, in the past, viewed attempts to blockade Eilat as a reason for going to war. In the Gulf War, when Saddam Hussein launched Scud missiles at Israel, it was a major crisis and left lasting scars.
Today, Israel has been led to accept missile and drone attacks from numerous fronts. This is because the Hamas attack on October 7 was so brutal that Israel sees the Houthi front as one of the smaller fronts. This has led to a kind of acceptance of the attacks.
Israel hasn’t left Houthi aggression unanswered
Israel did retaliate six times, but those attacks, most of them focused on ports in Yemen, have not deterred the Houthis. In fact, the attacks on the Houthis may actually show that Israel will face an uphill struggle to attack Iran if Israel tries to go that route to prevent a nuclear Iran.
This is because the attacks on the Houthis did not stop them, and they had missiles hidden in caves. It turns out it is harder than it looks to strike at underground cave complexes that have missiles in them.
The international community also appeased the Houthis, for the most part. The US and several other countries tried to deter the Houthis, but they were unsuccessful. This has taught the region a lesson: Attacks on ships may go unanswered.
Iran has empowered groups like the Houthis to use them as proxies. Because the Houthis are not a “state,” they can often get away with whatever they want. They have pirated at least one ship, for instance. No one seems to even report on what has become of the crew of Galaxy Leader ship that the Houthis seized.
The message from the Houthis is that they decide the time and place of attacks. The message they think will resonate is that they got away with this. Time will tell if this is the case.
@Peloni I agree.
@Sebastien
Yes, but the use of sanction policy targeting rogue actors such as the Houthis who are conducting piracy and brigandry should be understood to be a judicious use of sanction policy. To the degree to which Trump is able to restore order on the high seas, he will be congratulated, but the sanctions policy should be understood to be a first step towards what will certainly require military intervention in dealing with the Houthis, though it need not be US military filling that requirement. It has been rumored that Trump is pushing Egypt to use its over-swelled military to bring the Houthis to their knees – a perfect example of how the Trump doctrine should work, ie US allies securing US interests around the world.
@Peloni I heard Trump criticize the Biden policy of applying sanctions wholesale, saying they had to be applied selectively and judiciously because if other nations exit Swift and the dollar loses its dominance, this will be a huge defeat for the U.S.
@Sebastien
Yes, I saw this. The problem is, however, that while the US pursues its sanctions on this and other fronts, it will not succeed in putting the genie of radical Islam back the box. Rather, the use of sanctions will only delay the need to destroy these barbarians, as they bide their time and grow stronger over time in the face of Western resolve of impotence.
@Peloni
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2794
Saw it in ILTV News just now.