Peloni: The next few months are critical for Trump on many areas of import. Hopefully Trump will demonstrate that the huge cost of forcing Israel to accept this surrender deal will be worth the undisclosed potential benefits which may stand in the not too distant future.
Trump’s desire to seal a pre-inauguration deal forced Israel’s acquiescence.
Donald Trump and Marco Rubio REUTERS/Jonathan Drake
There is widespread and justifiable disappointment, unto anger, about the just announced hostage deal. Yes, thankfully, hostages are going to be released. But the price being paid is steep.
Terrorists returned, security areas withdrawn from, Hamas still intact, and perhaps of greatest concern, a seeming unanimity between Biden and Trump on the terms of the deal: all of this bodes ill, and smacks of diplomatic defeat being seized from the jaws of military victory.
But perhaps we are over enshrining the announced deal as the reality to come. Yes, the terms are onerous, and, yes, the deal raises questions about where Trump is in terms of supporting Israel and opposing Hamas.
However, I think that insufficient weight is being given to one overriding consideration: Trump expected, demanded and required a deal to be announced prior to his inauguration.
I believe that this necessity – for in truth Trump had backed himself into a corner with his “Hell to pay” threats – loomed over everything, drove the deal and now allows Trump to enter his second term as the can do tough guy in the neighborhood. It also enables him to avoid the actualization of the consequences of not having a deal, consequences he might not have even worked through.
It follows logically that if the whole situation had to be reverse engineered back from January 20th, then of course there was no time to restart or to materially alter the terms of the deal, terms that reportedly had been roughly agreed to back in May.
The tense meeting that was reported to have taken place between Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and PM Netanyahu undoubtedly came down to the make it or break choice that Bibi would have.
Either he would swallow hard and accept the deal, knowing that it was onerous unto unacceptable, yet also in stages and therefore not etched in stone, or he would gravely disappoint, offend and alienate the new incoming President.
Trump had previously sent messages or statements by himself and others expressing displeasure with Netanyahu, probably as a shot across the bow: as a reminder that there was not a lot of good will there to fall back on, and ultimately as a way for Bibi to see the inevitable necessity of supporting Trump.
So Bibi did the smart thing in terms of building a store of trust and good will with Trump. This might be tapped into rather soon, as Hamas is very likely to renege or to violate material aspects of the deal,
I think that the original hostage release in November 2023 should serve as the template regarding what has just been agreed to. At that time, there was a very significant number of hostages who were released and there was a pause and a pull back, both of which were decried as deleterious to the war effort.
But of course, the effort resumed and intensified. In retrospect therefore that deal must regarded as a coup for Israel.
What drove that release deal was military pressure, and the same considerations probably motivated Hamas in this current round. Dismemberment of command and control, the neutering of Hamas, the evisceration of Syria and the exposure of the vulnerability of Iran in all likelihood forced Hamas’s hand.
Not to mention the widespread, rampant and unforeseen ferocity of the IDF.
There is a great deal of handwringing about the undoubted likelihood that the murderous terrorists that will be released will return to their old habits and seek to once again murder, rape and pillage.
This is the sad reality, but it also must be remembered that Hamas is continuing to recruit new blood for their war effort, even in the face of widespread dismemberment, Such recruiting was encountered by the IDF when they returned to areas previously conquered and then withdrawn from.
In other words, the real issue is the durability and persistence of the Hamas war effort, whether or not it includes currently imprisoned terrorists.
For many of us, the greatest heartache in contemplating the deal is the nagging question of whether the heroic sacrifices of our incredible soldiers will be for naught, will have been in vain.
Again, I would urge us all not to jump to a definitive conclusion quite yet. Hopefully, as happened in November 2023, we will look back and say, yes there was disruption, yes, our job got more difficult and complicated, but we were able to secure the release of (most, all, many??) hostages, and then got back to the required task of dismantling Hamas.
We need to remember that Trump has appointed very pro-Israel people to key leadership roles in his government. The Secretaries of State and Defense, Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth (who is likely to be approved despite initial concerns), are both firmly in Israel’s corner, and are knowledgeable about the situation in this neighborhood.
I believe that Trump himself is very much with us, and will regard supporting Israel as part of a key strategic construct needed to face down China, Russia and Iran.
He now is starting off his tenure with the geo-political wind at his back, and he knows that Bibi and Israel helped him to get exactly where he wanted to be.
Getting Trump to have a latter-day version of the 1980 Iranian hostage release, as Reagan assumed office, is an enormous credibility boost for him.
I for one would like to think that Trump knows that Israel helped him to achieve it, and that he will be returning the favor as his term unfolds.
So, friends, grit your teeth, and take a longer view. God willing, we will emerge from this intact, more unified, and ultimately, strengthened.
Douglas Altabef is Chairman of the Board of Im Tirtzu and a Director of the Israel Independence Fund.
The DJT II Adm clearly stated that Hamas cannot and will not have any role in Gaza (I would add in J & S as well).
The term “West Bank” must be eliminated officially and permanently.
P.Dale
Good info but you’re a. Bit too supportive of that Hansen creep who adores creepy Trump
These cowards in America are big talkers but like others to do the fighting and dieing for them. Ukraine outrage shows this
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Jews still being tricked by these monumental creeps.
Thank you for this article. At this time there is so much pain about the nature of the cease fire agreement that it is useful to have a different perspective, one that is actually positive.
I tend to agree with @pdale5@hotmail.com. I don’t have evidence to support Hanson’s idea that Trump was primarily concerned with American hostages and their return. But it is a likely possibility.
Having Steve Witkoff his Middle East emissary I believe was a way to limit Rubio’s control and I thought it was about Trump having a direct line to his man negotiating with countries including Israel and Saudi Arabia. What has been coming out in the news about Witkoff sounds ominous, including that he praised the Qataris. If anything the US should remove our base in Qatar and seek to cut ties with them, as they have had an evil influence not just on the Middle East and especially Israel, but also they have donated billions of dollars to US colleges and universities for Pro-Islamic propaganda to be taught to several generations of Americans who are leaving college thinking of Israel as the enemy of peace in the world. This has to end! Praising the Qataris is like praising Satan himself. I cannot fathom Trump’s choice of him, from what we have seen so far. Maybe our questions will be answered over time.
In addition I agree with @pdale5@hotmail.com about the need for Israel to become completely independent of the US. What has happened since the 7th of October in terms of twisting Netanyahu into a pretzel by the Biden Administration constantly blaming Israel, constantly denigrating Israel, constantly pressuring Israel to resupply the enemy. Nobody told the US to resupply the German army in World War 2! It was shocking and disgusting the treatment Israel got, at a time of her extreme need, by the US government. I do not ever want to see Israel have to go through that again. Not ever. It is to Netanyahu’s credit that the war has been so far SUCCESSFUL! This despite the terrible disadvantage militarily that the US Biden people caused. I believe ultimately Israel will succeed in this war.
I believe Hamas will be destroyed, what is left of Hezbollah will be destroyed, and the Iranian nuclear program will be damaged or destroyed completely. Israel will have the weapons she needs to prosecute the war to its final conclusion.
Israel will have to devote precious resources to capturing and killing the terrorists who are going to be released who are most certainly going to want to kill innocent Israelis. Israel can do this, and has been doing this all during the war so far.
I am unclear still about the calculus in Trump’s mind about Israel but the one thing that he has made clear, is that Israel will have his complete support to bring a successful conclusion to this war.
While the situation for Israelis does seem dire, I empathize with all Israelis for whom this so-called deal is a disaster psychologically. But I hope that it motivates Israelis to get clear of dependencies especially on the US because we Americans do not know if the US will ever be able to be a true ally and friend to Israel until our Intelligence Community is brought under control of We The People again. That could happen but it might not be in my lifetime. Until then there are many secret hybrid warfare operations being run by CIA and their NGOs, that bring harm to many peoples of the world. We have to smash that horrendous misuse of taxpayer funds by defunding the dirty tricks programs and other secret programs until we have civilian control in place.
P.Dale
Good info but you’re a. Bit too supportive of that Hansen creep who adores creepy Trump
These cowards in America are big talkers but like others to do the fighting and dieing for them. Ukraine outrage shows this
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”
Very good explanation Hansen. Then get your fat ass and trumps fat ass into the tunnels that their money of the west helped morsi and Sisi to dig theni you can be respected by Israelis
Jews still being tricked by these monumental creeps.
He has got this right but I see the Israeli tactics as being foolish and amateurish from the get go…
I don’t want to stretch this out but the key job was not military but explanation on many fronts and issues
That was and is NEVER done
No one was exposing fault on the Israeli side …begin with THAT
The issue was about the hostages and existence of tunnels and exploring for the population HOW.
THAT HAPPENED
for as long as it takes
I WOULD HAVE BEEN IN NO RUSH
As long as I follow Leon Trotsky I know that they did not prepare the ground.
The IDF just youth were brave but led by donkeys
People like Peloni support the whole wrong headed campaign because he is as bankrupt as Israeli leadership is.
And why did Israeli youth have to fight alone
Israel didn’t create it?
Only closet Antisemites think that
(More explanation later)
The author dangerously relies too much on Trump’s presumed support for Israel and the fact that some of his appointees show support as well.
The author should read the opening sentence of Psalm 146: ‘Put not your trust in Princes.’ And he should not rely on Trump or his appointees for unwavering support.
Trump will support Israel whenever the interests of the United States or his own political interests require it. When this does not occur, he won’t. I am including a link to the Victor Davis Hanson show that was broadcast yesterday. VDH deals with the ‘ceasefire’ agreement as the first topic, about four minutes into the broadcast.
VDH suggests that Trump wants the same dramatic release of the hostages that Reagan got when he was inaugurated in 1981 and he specifically says that Trump’s prime interest in forcing a deal was to liberate the American hostages.
VDH also points to the fact that Trump sent a chap called Wisekoff to see Bibi. This emissary was a no nonsense, direct talking American business man who told Bibi in no uncertain terms that there were to be no American hostages on 20 January. What is also especially interesting is that, a few years ago, Wisekoff got into financial difficulties and was bailed out of them by ….? The answer is Qatar. Contemplate that.
As I have said elsewhere on this site, Israel must wean itself from its dependence on the U.S. It cannot continue to behave as if it were a satrap of the Caliphate in Washington. Its very survival depends on adhering to de Gaulle’s advice: Nations do not have friends; they have interests. And Israel’s interest should not also depend on the smiles of foreign politicians no matter how favourable they may-for a time- be towards the Jewish state.
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-the-victor-davis-hanson-sh-83221447/episode/ceasefire-resignation-and-political-cults-258677996/
I have great respect for the work of Im Tirzu. But I think that Douglas Altabeth is wrong here. Hundreds of terrorists are set to be released as part of this deal. There will be an almost immediate increase and intensification of terrorist attacks one they are released. Recapturing or killing these terrorists will be no easy task.
1500 years of fighting the same breed of (?)
The entire world will continue fighting
The entire world CAN unite and rid the planet
of the (?) breed
Why do we not unite ?
Eddie…..aka…..tzvi