Peloni: Here we go again. Zelensky is about to take another visit to the diplomatic woodshed. Notably, the election season in the US will end in less than three weeks, making Zelensky’s unwillingness to even pause his attack on refineries rather remarkable. These attacks are essentially aimed at the wallets of the Western world and most particularly to Trump’s election base in the US in the weeks leading upto the election. As everyone is so anxious to see an end of Trump in Washington, it seems that Zelensky got out ahead of himself as Trump is very much still in control in the US, and in doing so he is likely to face a serious consequence for his misjudgment and his lack of practice in the diplomatic arts.
If even one of the major European governments turns over, Ukraine’s lifeline will be severed.
Stephen Bryen | Weapons & Strategy | Oct 15, 2026
Click Image to Enlarge. Image created via AI.
Zelensky’s harsh words about US President Donald Trump was an emotional response after Zelensky deliberately thwarted Trump’s request that Ukraine not strike Russian refineries. Unfortunately Zelensky is making matters worse, and Ukraine’s future is now in doubt.
Ukraine targeted two Russian oil refineries, according to Russian Deputy Prime minister Aleksandr Novak. The key target on Wednesday, October 14, and Thursday, October 15, 2026, was the Ryazan Oil Refinery. A Ukrainian drone swarm targeted the facility overnight, igniting multiple fires at the plant. Another plant in Saratov also was hit, but information on that strike is limited.
Zelensky excused the strikes saying the Russians had violated Trump’s alleged energy ceasefire. Neither side, however, ever agreed to a ceasefire, as the record clearly shows.
Zelensky also claimed Trump had slowed Starlink feeds to Ukraine, and that US intelligence failed to warn Ukraine of incoming Russian missiles aimed at Kiev. It is uncertain if Zelensky is right that US intelligence deliberately did not notify Kiev of an incoming missile strike.
US satellites can detect and track ballistic missile launches by picking up infrared rocket booster signatures, and launches from Russian territory are handed over in near real time to Ukraine’s air defense units, especially its Patriot batteries. However, Russian commentators and bloggers do not believe the US stopped intelligence reporting to Ukraine. While for one day Ukraine’s Starlink connectivity was slowed in order to show the Ukrainians that they faced losing their communications lifeline if they kept hitting Russian oil refineries, there is no hard evidence that the US deliberately shut down intelligence sharing. Russian military experts say what fooled the satellites is the missiles fired at Kiev on October 12 and 13 were launched from converted S-400 air defenses, not from Russian territory, and that the closure time between launch and hit was only a matter of some seconds. The experts also think the US satellites did not pick up the S-400 launchers in Donetsk.
In mid-September Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and damaged two Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile launchers located in the Vygonychi district of Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. Bryansk Oblast is in western Russia, directly bordering northeastern Ukraine (specifically Ukraine’s Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts) and Belarus. It is relatively close to the main route heading toward Moscow. Donetsk is located much further south in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, bordering Russia’s Rostov Oblast. There are no reports Ukraine attacked any S-400 sites in Donetsk.
Ukraine’s attack on the Bryansk S-400s is probably linked to preventing Russia from shooting down Ukraine’s Neptune missiles aimed at Moscow.
US-Ukraine Relations are in Bad Shape
From what we now know, it is fair to say that Washington is not only frustrated but extremely angry with Zelensky, seeing him not only as uncooperative and not a team player, but directly undermining US interests when it comes to energy policy, a critical issue for the Trump administration. Zelensky’s hot temper and his attacks on Trump personally may have finally ruptured any future either for Zelensky or for Ukraine.
It is quite true that Zelensky has important allies on Capitol Hill and in Europe. But each of these relationships has significant caveats.
The President executes foreign policy. Congress can influence Presidential decisions, but the day to day management is in the Executive’s hands. While Trump is deeply involved in a critical election cycle, and has no strong interest in alienating his Republican allies, that will end in November (one way or another). After that, Trump is in the driver’s seat and Zelensky will have a hard time trying to recruit support in Congress. Trump can slow-go arms deliveries, restrict intelligence support, or make deals with the Russians, and Zelensky will not have much he can do to reverse any of that.
As part of his verbal attack on Trump. on October 14th Zelensky shuttled off to the UK where he was given a high level heroes welcome, and even an audience with King Charles at Buckingham Palace. The British, who have few workable weapons, promised “speedy” delivery of some anti drone technology, but nothing else. Zelensky was after European political support and he managed to upstage and again at least indirectly insult the American president. While Zelensky’s support in Europe seems solid, Europe’s political situation is anything but stable and could shift against Ukraine very quickly.
Nigel Farage, head of Reform in the UK, does not want the UK fighting for Ukraine and is demanding Ukraine hold elections. Marine Le Pen, the leading presidential candidate in France, advocates halting direct French financial aid to Ukraine, citing France’s severe domestic national debt and budget challenges. Le Pen criticizes European energy sanctions against Russia, calling them self-destructive for Europe’s economy and opposes sending offensive long-range weaponry or troops to Ukraine. In Germany the resurgent AfD (Alternative for Germany) maintains a pro-Russian, anti-sanctions, and anti-aid stance regarding the war in Ukraine. The party advocates for immediate diplomatic negotiations with Moscow and a complete halt to German military assistance to Kyiv.
While the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia grab the headlines in Europe, the real European crisis is population, specifically Muslims from the Middle East and North Africa. In Germany around 15.4 to 17.4 million living in Germany were born outside of Germany, and with their children account for 21.8 million, around 20 to 25% of the German population.
In France, between 15 and 16 million are North African and Middle Eastern Muslims, or 20% of the population.
Around 1.3 million living in London are Muslims, 51 percent born outside of the UK. About 23 to 25% of the population of Brussels is Muslim.
The political reaction developing in Germany, France and the UK is closely linked to the population crisis and it is the silent war now underway on and off the continent.
There is also a Ukrainian population problem.
A significant part of Ukraine’s draftable army is in Germany where 300,000 to 400,000 draft age young men sit and get welfare. Overall around 1.2 million draftable Ukrainians are in Europe, not Ukraine.
Meanwhile Ukraine is scraping the barrel trying to hustle young people into the army, trying to get rid of deferments, and using harsh tactics in rounding up recruits. Ukraine’s borders are closed to young men.
From Ukraine’s point of view, if even one of the major European governments turns over, Ukraine’s lifeline will be severed. It is not a fantasy to think this is possible in one or two years (even without scheduled elections). If any of the Big Three change hands, the EU won’t be able to shovel money to Kiev, and arms supplies, already constrained, will dry up. NATO leadership may also have to change.
Zelensky’s Mistake
Trump loses his temper during meeting with Zelensky. By The White House – YouTube, Public Domain, Link
It is hard to understand why Zelensky started a fight with Trump over Russian oil. To say he was stabbed in the back, and to make a show in the UK, which once was America’s most trusted ally, shows an unprecedented lack of judgement.
Trump is already furious with the Europeans over not supporting the US in the Iran War (and lately Houthis as well). Having Zelensky stir the pot even more, is not something welcomed in Washington.
Zelensky’s mistake and blunder has long term consequences, reinforced by the shifting sands of European politics, and Washington’s long term interests, that differ markedly from Ukraine’s.
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